UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3239 7789 | support@fxservice.com
Market Snapshot 01.04.09
USD
Brief:
1.Today\\'s US economic releases, -forecast- US MBA Mortgage application -Mar27- (35.8%), US ADP Employment change -Mar- (-663k), US ISM Manufacturing -Mar- (36.0), US ISM Price paid -Mar- (33.0) and US Pending home sales -Feb- (0.0%).
2.Yesterday\\'s US economic releases, -actual- US Case-Shiller Composite-20 -Jan- (-19%), US Chicago PMI -Mar- (31.4), US Consumer confidence -Mar- (26.0) and US ABC Consumer confidence -Mar29- (-49).
3.USD strengthen against the euro as stocks in Europe and US index futures fell amid G-20 summit, and President Barack Obama said bankruptcy is the most likely way for GM to restructure, while economists said before a report today that US manufacturing probably shrank further in March, increasing the dollar appeal as safe haven.
4.USD fell versus the euro yesterday as stocks in the US rose on speculation there is improvement in credit markets as banks grown more eager to lend, reducing demand the dollar as safe haven and a report showed home prices in 20 US cities fell 19% in January from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record as demand plummeted.
5.The dollar remained against most currencies yesterday as report showed confidence among US consumers stayed near a record low and a survey of purchasing managers showed business deteriorated further in March, indicating the economy remains deep in a recession and dimming investors anticipation for quick recovery.
On the upside:
•Figures that suggest economies in EU contracts faster than expected.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise on buying interest.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Statements/comments by Europe\\'s officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – NZD/USD - GBP/USD – USD/CHF -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today\\'s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tankan Manufactures index -1stQ- (-58), Japan Tankan Large manufacturers outlook -1stQ- (-51), Japan Tankan Non-manufacturing Index -1stQ- (-31), Japan Tankan Non-manufacturing outlook -1stQ- (-30), Japan Tankan Large all industries Capex -1stQ- (-6.6%) and Japan Vehicle production -Mar- (-34.7%).
2.JPY weaken against most currencies today despite Tankan large manufacturers confidence survey fell to a record low, European stocks and US futures fell, on the possibility of GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy increased and investors speculates G-20 leaders will propose increase spending to revive economies, increasing carry trade demand.
3.JPY traded near a 3-week low versus the dollar and fell against most currencies yesterday as US stocks rose on speculation banks have grown more eager to lend and as commodities surge, increasing carry trade demand, overshadowing a report earlier that showed Japan\\'s unemployment rose to a 3-year high.
On the upside:
•Stocks may experience some selling pressure on weaker outlook for corporate earnings.
On the downside:
•Economic figures may lead stocks higher.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•US Stocks movement.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' speech.
•BOJ Members\\' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY - AUD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany Retail sales -YoY-MoM- (-5.3% - -0.2%), Italy Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (34.6), France Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (34.5), Germany Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (32.4), Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (33.9) and Euro-zone Unemployment rate (8.5%).
2.Tomorrow\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France PPI -YoY-MoM- (-3.4% - -0.3%) and ECB Rate decision (1.0%).
3.EUR fell toward a 2-week low against the dollar and weaken against most currencies today as reports showed Europe\\'s jobless rate climbed to the most in almost 3 years and Europe\\'s manufacturing industry contracted more than estimated in March, adding to evidence the region\\'s recession is worsening and prompted companies to cut output and cost.
4.EUR rose versus the dollar yesterday as US stocks rose on speculation banks are easing on lending, reducing demand for the dollar as refuge, overshadowing a report earlier that showed Europe\\'s inflation rate dropped more than economists forecast to the lowest on record in March.
5.EUR remained strong against most currencies yesterday despite ECB council members urged the public to be ready for a very difficult year and has signaled the are ready to reduce the interest rate below 1.0% to help revive the region\\'s economy and a report showed German unemployment rose more than economists forecast in March as the economic slump intensified.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Some selling pressure on rate cut speculation.
•Deepening recession in Euro-zone.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•ECB\\'s members\\' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude Oil fell today as the dollar strengthen against the euro and on speculation a government report today will show US crude oil inventories rose by atleast 3Million barrels and show fuel demand dropped.
2.Crude oil rose yesterday as the dollar fell against the euro and as US stocks advanced on speculation banks become more eager to lend, increasing appeal of commodities as inflation hedge and as alternative investment.
3.Oil prices remained strong yesterday despite analysts said before a report today that US crude oil inventories probably surged 3.3Million barrels last week, while inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel declined.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Increasing selling pressure as today\\'s storage report may report large crude oil inventories gain.
•The dollar may strengthen on safe haven appeal.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•Today\\'s storage report.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•OPEC members\\' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $48 and low $49 (Today\\'s economic releases, storage report, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11.40GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11.40PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stocks market slightly weaken in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advance in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly weaken in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly advance in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY remain or slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly recover in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthen late trading session.
•US capital markets weaken in late trading session.
•JPY strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR strengthen in late trading session.
•Crude oil advance in late trading session. (Depends on storage report)
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today\\'s US economic releases, -forecast- US MBA Mortgage application -Mar27- (35.8%), US ADP Employment change -Mar- (-663k), US ISM Manufacturing -Mar- (36.0), US ISM Price paid -Mar- (33.0) and US Pending home sales -Feb- (0.0%).
2.Yesterday\\'s US economic releases, -actual- US Case-Shiller Composite-20 -Jan- (-19%), US Chicago PMI -Mar- (31.4), US Consumer confidence -Mar- (26.0) and US ABC Consumer confidence -Mar29- (-49).
3.USD strengthen against the euro as stocks in Europe and US index futures fell amid G-20 summit, and President Barack Obama said bankruptcy is the most likely way for GM to restructure, while economists said before a report today that US manufacturing probably shrank further in March, increasing the dollar appeal as safe haven.
4.USD fell versus the euro yesterday as stocks in the US rose on speculation there is improvement in credit markets as banks grown more eager to lend, reducing demand the dollar as safe haven and a report showed home prices in 20 US cities fell 19% in January from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record as demand plummeted.
5.The dollar remained against most currencies yesterday as report showed confidence among US consumers stayed near a record low and a survey of purchasing managers showed business deteriorated further in March, indicating the economy remains deep in a recession and dimming investors anticipation for quick recovery.
On the upside:
•Figures that suggest economies in EU contracts faster than expected.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise on buying interest.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Statements/comments by Europe\\'s officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – NZD/USD - GBP/USD – USD/CHF -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today\\'s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tankan Manufactures index -1stQ- (-58), Japan Tankan Large manufacturers outlook -1stQ- (-51), Japan Tankan Non-manufacturing Index -1stQ- (-31), Japan Tankan Non-manufacturing outlook -1stQ- (-30), Japan Tankan Large all industries Capex -1stQ- (-6.6%) and Japan Vehicle production -Mar- (-34.7%).
2.JPY weaken against most currencies today despite Tankan large manufacturers confidence survey fell to a record low, European stocks and US futures fell, on the possibility of GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy increased and investors speculates G-20 leaders will propose increase spending to revive economies, increasing carry trade demand.
3.JPY traded near a 3-week low versus the dollar and fell against most currencies yesterday as US stocks rose on speculation banks have grown more eager to lend and as commodities surge, increasing carry trade demand, overshadowing a report earlier that showed Japan\\'s unemployment rose to a 3-year high.
On the upside:
•Stocks may experience some selling pressure on weaker outlook for corporate earnings.
On the downside:
•Economic figures may lead stocks higher.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•US Stocks movement.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' speech.
•BOJ Members\\' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY - AUD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany Retail sales -YoY-MoM- (-5.3% - -0.2%), Italy Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (34.6), France Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (34.5), Germany Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (32.4), Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI -Mar- (33.9) and Euro-zone Unemployment rate (8.5%).
2.Tomorrow\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France PPI -YoY-MoM- (-3.4% - -0.3%) and ECB Rate decision (1.0%).
3.EUR fell toward a 2-week low against the dollar and weaken against most currencies today as reports showed Europe\\'s jobless rate climbed to the most in almost 3 years and Europe\\'s manufacturing industry contracted more than estimated in March, adding to evidence the region\\'s recession is worsening and prompted companies to cut output and cost.
4.EUR rose versus the dollar yesterday as US stocks rose on speculation banks are easing on lending, reducing demand for the dollar as refuge, overshadowing a report earlier that showed Europe\\'s inflation rate dropped more than economists forecast to the lowest on record in March.
5.EUR remained strong against most currencies yesterday despite ECB council members urged the public to be ready for a very difficult year and has signaled the are ready to reduce the interest rate below 1.0% to help revive the region\\'s economy and a report showed German unemployment rose more than economists forecast in March as the economic slump intensified.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Some selling pressure on rate cut speculation.
•Deepening recession in Euro-zone.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•ECB\\'s members\\' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude Oil fell today as the dollar strengthen against the euro and on speculation a government report today will show US crude oil inventories rose by atleast 3Million barrels and show fuel demand dropped.
2.Crude oil rose yesterday as the dollar fell against the euro and as US stocks advanced on speculation banks become more eager to lend, increasing appeal of commodities as inflation hedge and as alternative investment.
3.Oil prices remained strong yesterday despite analysts said before a report today that US crude oil inventories probably surged 3.3Million barrels last week, while inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel declined.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Increasing selling pressure as today\\'s storage report may report large crude oil inventories gain.
•The dollar may strengthen on safe haven appeal.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases.
•G-20 summit.
•Today\\'s storage report.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•OPEC members\\' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $48 and low $49 (Today\\'s economic releases, storage report, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11.40GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11.40PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stocks market slightly weaken in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advance in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly weaken in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly advance in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY remain or slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly recover in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthen late trading session.
•US capital markets weaken in late trading session.
•JPY strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR strengthen in late trading session.
•Crude oil advance in late trading session. (Depends on storage report)
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
|
