USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Personal income -Apr- (-0.2%), US Personal spending -Apr- (-0.2%), US Personal consumption deflator -Apr- (0.4%), US Core personal consumption deflator -YoY-MoM- (1.9% - 0.2%), US ISM Manufacturing -May- (42.3) and ISM Price paid -May- (35).
2.Last Friday's US Economic releases, -actual- US GDP -1stQ- (-5.7%), US Personal consumption -1stQ- (1.5%), US Core personal consumption expenditure -1stQ- (1.5%), US Chicago PMI -May- (34.9) and University of Michigan consumer confidence index -May- (68.7).
3.USD strengthens against most currencies today as investors sell the euro on speculation that last week's advance versus the dollar was excessive and too fast to sustain, and economists said before a report this week that unemployment in the US probably surpassed 9% in May for the first time in more than 25 years.
4.The dollar fell beyond $1.41 versus the euro for the first time in 2009 last Friday as evidence the global recession is easing boosted investors risk appetite and on speculation the ECB will avoid cutting interest rates so as to avoid stoking inflation.
On the upside:
•Some recovery after recent retreat.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on outlook that recession in US and Europe may be stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
Long: USD/CAD - USD/CHF - USD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – USD/CAD – USD/JPY -
-According to 01.35GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY strengthens against most currencies today as US futures index fell and economists said the global recession may still lingers for some time despite figures indicates major countries are seeing some improvement in their economy.
2.The yen climbed from a 2-week low against the dollar last Friday despite US stocks rose as a Japanese report showed industrial production rose the most in 56 years, fueling optimism funds will flow back into the nation's assets.
4.The yen remained strong against the dollar as the currency fell on optimism global economy is stabilizing, reduces demand for the greenback as safe haven and as investors increase bets that the dollar will fall to 90 versus the yen.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat as outlook on non-banking sectors' companies earnings remain weak.
On the downside:
•The yen may weaken on speculation Japan's government will offer more stimulus package.
•Stocks may advance on economic data which indicates global economy is recovering.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – USD/JPY – AUD/JPY - GBP/JPY
-According to 01.35GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy Manufacturing PMI -May- (39.5), France Manufacturing PMI -May- (43.1), Germany Manufacturing PMI -May- (39.1) and Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI -May- (40.5).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Euro-zone Unemployment rate -Apr- (9.1%).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today on concern its last week's gain was excessive given the global recession may still lingers for some time, and as economists said before a report this week that US unemployment rate probably surpassed 9% in May for the first time in more than 25 years.
4.EUR rose above $1.41 versus the dollar last Friday for the first time this year on optimism global economy is stabilizing and climbing commodities' prices boosted investors risk appetite, reduces demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•The euro may retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
-According to 01.35GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil was little today despite US futures index fell and analysts said crude oil futures will fall this week as last week's gain was overdone as global fuel demand remains dim.
2.Crude oil rose last Friday, as the dollar fell below $1.41 versus the euro for the first time in 2009 and climbing equities led commodities' price higher.
3.Oil price remained strong last Friday as weakening dollar increased appeal of commodities as inflation hedge and on optimism global economy is stabilizing, spurring speculation fuel demand will increase as economy recovers.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Some retreat after recent gains.
•The dollar may recovery versus the euro.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $66 and low $67 (Today's economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
inquiries
-According to 01.35GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (01.35AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weakens early trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weakens in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly advances in late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recovers in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
