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Market Snapshot 01.10.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US ADP Employment change -Sep- (-50k), US ISM Manufacturing -Sep- (50.0), US ISM Price paid -Sep- (75) and US Construction spending -MoM- (-0.5%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- S&P/CaseShiller Composite 20 -YoY- (-16.3%), US Chicago PMI -Sep- (56.7) and US Consumer confidence -Sep- (59.8).
3.USD strengthens against the euro today on speculation the $700Billion bailout plan will be approved soon as the US Senate set a vote for tonight on a $700 billion financial rescue plan, tying it to an increase in bank deposit insurance limits and tax breaks.
4.USD rose the most on record against the euro yesterday on speculation Senate will salvage the $700Billion plan to bailout banks and as the euro weakens after France and Belgium led a state backed rescue of Dexia SA, as the widening financial crisis forces governments to prop up financial institutions across Europe.
5.The dollar remains strong against most currencies yesterday after a report showed US consumer confidence confidence index unexpectedly increased, to 59.8 in September while separate reports showed home prices fell in July at the fastest pace on record and business activity slowed less than forecast this month.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (EUR and JPY)
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US job markets/economy will worsen.
•Some selling pressure after yesterday's record gain.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Senate statements/comments on the legislation.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Major financial companies' earnings report.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD –
Long: USD/JPY – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: - EUR/USD – USD/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY is little change against the dollar today amid European stocks and US stock index futures fell as investors speculated a $700Billion bank- rescue plan from Congress will fail to avert a recession.
2.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tankan large manufacturers index -3rdQ- (-3), Tankan Large manufacturers outlook -3rdQ- (-4), Tankan Non-Manufacturing index -3rdQ- (1), Tankan Non-Manufacturing outlook -3rdQ- (1-) and Tankan Large all industry Capex -3rdQ- (1.7%).
3.Japan's largest manufacturers turned pessimistic about the prospects for business for the 1st time in 5 years according to Tankan survey, as a deepening US financial crisis stifled demand in the country's export markets.
4.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday as US stocks jumped the most in six years as growing expectations that lawmakers will salvage a $700Billion bank rescue package helped US indexes recover from previous day plunge.
5.JPY strengthened against most currencies yesterday as US stocks plunged, sending the Dow Jones Industrial average index to its biggest point drop ever and he Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled the most since the 1987 crash after the House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion plan to rescue the financial system.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•US stocks might slightly weakens after yesterday's rapid recovery.
On the downside:
•Buying interest in US stocks on growing speculation that lawmakers will try to revive the $700Billion bailout plan.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Senate statements/comments on the legislation.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – USD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (44.4), France PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (43.0), Germany PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (47.4), Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (45) and Euro-zone Unemployment rate -Aug- (7.5%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Euro-zone PPI -YoY-MoM- (8.5% - -0.5%) and ECB Rate decision (4.25%).
3.EUR fell versus the dollar today after reports showed European manufacturing contracted more than initially estimated and unemployment rose to the highest in 1 year as the deepening credit crisis slowed growth. ECB President Trichet said US lawmakers must pass a $700 billion rescue package for banks to shore up confidence in the global financial system, signaling anxiety with the region over the bailout plan from US.
4.EUR fell the most against the dollar since the introduction of the shared currency on speculation lawmakers will revive the $700Billion bailout plan and France and Belgium led a state backed rescue of Dexia SA, stoked investors concerns that financial crisis in Europe will spread.
5.EUR remains weak against most currencies yesterday as the dollar strengthened after reports showed US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in September and business activity slowed less than forecast at the same month.
On the upside:
•Some recovery after yesterday's record retreat.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Growing concerns over spreading credit related losses in the region.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Senate statements/comments on the legislation.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short : - EUR/USD – EUR/GBP –
Long: – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today amid after US lawmakers said they intend to salvage a $700 billion bank- rescue package that may alleviate the economic slowdown.
2.Crude oil rose, rebounding from its biggest drop in 7 years, after US lawmakers said they intend to salvage a $700 billion bank rescue package that may avert an economic slowdown.
3.Crude oil remains strong yesterday as report showed US consumer confidence index unexpectedly increased in September while a separate report showed business activity slowed less than forecast at the same month.
On the upside:
•Atlantic ocean hurricanes activities.
•Production cut threat.
•Production disruption threat/speculation.
On the downside:
•US stock markets stabilizing.
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Today's storage report.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•USD movement.
•US indexes movement
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities and weather report. (Sensitive).
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around mid $99 and high $100 (Today's economic release, Storage report, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.15PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases.)
•US capital markets recovers on early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly recovers on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases.)
•US capital markets slightly rises on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets rises by late trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US ADP Employment change -Sep- (-50k), US ISM Manufacturing -Sep- (50.0), US ISM Price paid -Sep- (75) and US Construction spending -MoM- (-0.5%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- S&P/CaseShiller Composite 20 -YoY- (-16.3%), US Chicago PMI -Sep- (56.7) and US Consumer confidence -Sep- (59.8).
3.USD strengthens against the euro today on speculation the $700Billion bailout plan will be approved soon as the US Senate set a vote for tonight on a $700 billion financial rescue plan, tying it to an increase in bank deposit insurance limits and tax breaks.
4.USD rose the most on record against the euro yesterday on speculation Senate will salvage the $700Billion plan to bailout banks and as the euro weakens after France and Belgium led a state backed rescue of Dexia SA, as the widening financial crisis forces governments to prop up financial institutions across Europe.
5.The dollar remains strong against most currencies yesterday after a report showed US consumer confidence confidence index unexpectedly increased, to 59.8 in September while separate reports showed home prices fell in July at the fastest pace on record and business activity slowed less than forecast this month.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (EUR and JPY)
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US job markets/economy will worsen.
•Some selling pressure after yesterday's record gain.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Senate statements/comments on the legislation.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Major financial companies' earnings report.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD –
Long: USD/JPY – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: - EUR/USD – USD/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY is little change against the dollar today amid European stocks and US stock index futures fell as investors speculated a $700Billion bank- rescue plan from Congress will fail to avert a recession.
2.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tankan large manufacturers index -3rdQ- (-3), Tankan Large manufacturers outlook -3rdQ- (-4), Tankan Non-Manufacturing index -3rdQ- (1), Tankan Non-Manufacturing outlook -3rdQ- (1-) and Tankan Large all industry Capex -3rdQ- (1.7%).
3.Japan's largest manufacturers turned pessimistic about the prospects for business for the 1st time in 5 years according to Tankan survey, as a deepening US financial crisis stifled demand in the country's export markets.
4.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday as US stocks jumped the most in six years as growing expectations that lawmakers will salvage a $700Billion bank rescue package helped US indexes recover from previous day plunge.
5.JPY strengthened against most currencies yesterday as US stocks plunged, sending the Dow Jones Industrial average index to its biggest point drop ever and he Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled the most since the 1987 crash after the House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion plan to rescue the financial system.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•US stocks might slightly weakens after yesterday's rapid recovery.
On the downside:
•Buying interest in US stocks on growing speculation that lawmakers will try to revive the $700Billion bailout plan.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Senate statements/comments on the legislation.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – USD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (44.4), France PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (43.0), Germany PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (47.4), Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing -Sep- (45) and Euro-zone Unemployment rate -Aug- (7.5%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Euro-zone PPI -YoY-MoM- (8.5% - -0.5%) and ECB Rate decision (4.25%).
3.EUR fell versus the dollar today after reports showed European manufacturing contracted more than initially estimated and unemployment rose to the highest in 1 year as the deepening credit crisis slowed growth. ECB President Trichet said US lawmakers must pass a $700 billion rescue package for banks to shore up confidence in the global financial system, signaling anxiety with the region over the bailout plan from US.
4.EUR fell the most against the dollar since the introduction of the shared currency on speculation lawmakers will revive the $700Billion bailout plan and France and Belgium led a state backed rescue of Dexia SA, stoked investors concerns that financial crisis in Europe will spread.
5.EUR remains weak against most currencies yesterday as the dollar strengthened after reports showed US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in September and business activity slowed less than forecast at the same month.
On the upside:
•Some recovery after yesterday's record retreat.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Growing concerns over spreading credit related losses in the region.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Senate statements/comments on the legislation.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short : - EUR/USD – EUR/GBP –
Long: – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today amid after US lawmakers said they intend to salvage a $700 billion bank- rescue package that may alleviate the economic slowdown.
2.Crude oil rose, rebounding from its biggest drop in 7 years, after US lawmakers said they intend to salvage a $700 billion bank rescue package that may avert an economic slowdown.
3.Crude oil remains strong yesterday as report showed US consumer confidence index unexpectedly increased in September while a separate report showed business activity slowed less than forecast at the same month.
On the upside:
•Atlantic ocean hurricanes activities.
•Production cut threat.
•Production disruption threat/speculation.
On the downside:
•US stock markets stabilizing.
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Today's storage report.
•Tonight's Senate votes.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•USD movement.
•US indexes movement
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities and weather report. (Sensitive).
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around mid $99 and high $100 (Today's economic release, Storage report, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.15PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases.)
•US capital markets recovers on early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly recovers on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases.)
•US capital markets slightly rises on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets rises by late trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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