Market snapshot 02.09.09
USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US ADP Employment change –Aug- (-250k), US Factory orders –July- (1.8%) and Publication of FOMC minutes.
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- USD ISM Manufacturing –Aug- (52.9), US ISM Price paid –Aug- (65.0), US Pending home sales –July- (12.9%) and US ABC Consumer confidence –Aug30- (-45).
3. USD fell against most currencies today despite stocks in stocks in Asia and Europe fell, as investors took profit after yesterday’s advance, while analysts said orders placed with US factories probably rose in July by the most in 2 years as companies tried to prevent stockpiles from dropping further.
4. The dollar fell against the euro today as a report showed European consumer spending rose for the 1st time in more than a year in the 2nd quarter and exports fell at a slower pace, helping to ease the worst recession since WW2.
On the upside:
• Stocks may retreat today if analysts and economists further undermine positive economic figures.
On the downside:
• Stocks may slightly rises on buying interest after yesterday’s decline and economic figures may further boost investors optimism the US economy is recovering faster than previously expected.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 11:10GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. JPY strengthened to a 7-week high against the euro today on concern US banks will incur more losses and as stocks in Asia and US fell, reducing demand for carry trade.
2. The yen retreated from day high against the euro today after a report showed household spending in the euro area increased 0.2% after declining 0.5% in the 1st quarter.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today if economists and analysts further undermine positive economic figures.
On the downside:
•Stocks may advance today on buying interest after recent retreat.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:(Light)
Long: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 12:00GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1. Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone GDP –YoY-QoQ- (-4.7% - -0.1%), Euro-zone Household consumption –QoQ- (0.2%), Euro-zone Fixed capital –QoQ- (-1.3%) and Euro-zone PPI –MoM- (-0.8%).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italy Services PMI –Aug- (46.0), France Services PMI –Aug- (48.9), Germany Services PMI –Aug- (54.1), Euro-zone Services PMI –Aug- (49.5), Euro-zone Retail sales –YoY-MoM- (-2.2% - 0.1%) and ECB Rate decision (1.0%).
3. EUR remained strong against most currencies today despite stocks in Europe fell, as a report showed European consumer spending rose for the 1st time in more than a year in the 2nd quarter and exports fell at a slower pace, helping to ease the worst recession since WW2.
4. The euro remained strong against the dollar today as economists said a report today will show orders placed with US factories probably rose in July by the most in 2 years, reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
• US stocks may rise on buying interest; dampen demand for the dollar as safe haven.
•Stocks may climb today on short-covering.
On the downside:
•Further decline as retreating stocks may increase demand for the dollar.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/JPY– EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 12:00GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil rose for the 1st time in 3 days today as the dollar slightly weakening and on signs that excess US inventories are contracting as demand for winter fuels starts to pick up.
2. Oil remained strong today as an official said OPEC is likely to leave oil production unchanged when it meets next week in Vienna and economists said a report today will show American manufacturing expanded for the first time in 19 months.
On the upside:
•Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may slightly strengthen if stocks fall.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Speculation on tomorrow’s storage report.
•Hurricane season.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around low $68 and mid $68(Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11:10GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12:00AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets slightly rises in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly rise in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US stock markets slightly weaken in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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