USD
Brief:
1. Tomorrow’s US economic releases, -forecast- US NFP –Sep- (-180k), US Unemployment rate –Sep- (9.8%), US Change in manufacturing payrolls –Sep- (-50k), US Average hourly earnings –YoY-MoM- (2.6% - 0.2%) and US Factory orders –Aug- (0.0%).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US personal income –Aug- (0.2%), US Personal spending –Aug- (1.3%), US Personal consumption expenditure –YoY- (-0.5%), US Personal consumption expenditure core –YoY-MoM- (1.3% - 0.1%), US Initial jobless claims –Sep26- (551k), US ISM Manufacturing –Sep- (52.6), US ISM Price paid –Sep- (63.5) and US Pending home sales –Aug- (6.4%).
3. USD strengthen the euro today on speculation G-7 officials meeting in Istanbul this weekend will discuss the euro’s gains, while weakening stocks in Asia and Europe fell, increase demand for the dollar as safe haven.
4. The dollar remained strong today as economists said a report today will show US employers shed 175,000 jobs in September, while unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in September from, signaling US economy recover will be slow.
On the upside:
•Some retreat after recent gains as investors exit position to lock in profit.
On the downside:
• US stocks may rebound after yesterday’s decline.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – EUR/USD -
-According to 11:30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Jobless rate –Aug- (5.5%) and Japan Household spending –Aug- (2.6%).
2. JPY headed for a 2nd weekly gain against the euro and dollar today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, and on as economists say will show US employers cut jobs for a 21st month, reducing demand for the yen as safe haven.
3. The yen remained strong today as a report showed Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly retreated in August from a record and household spending rose as the nation emerged from its worst postwar recession.
On the upside:
•US stocks may retreat today if economic figures show US lost more jobs than expected
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance rebound today after yesterday’s loss
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 11:30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone PPI –YoY-MoM- (-7.5% - 0.4%).
2. EUR fell against the dollar today as stocks in Europe and Asia fell on speculation a report today may show the jobless rate in America climbed to a 26-year high in September.
3. The euro remained weak against the dollar today on G-7 finance officials meeting in Istanbul this weekend will discuss the euro’s gains and Euro-zone finance official may intervene the gain in Euro.
On the upside:
•US stocks may advance on short-covering after yesterday’s decline.
On the downside:
• The dollar may strengthen if stocks retreat.
•Further retreat on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: EUR/USD – EUR/CHF – EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 11:30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthens and on signs the US economy is still in the midst of a recession, limiting fuel demand in the region.
2. Oil prices remained weak today despite a report showed Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly retreated in August from a record and household spending rose.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance on short-covering
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen further on safe haven demand.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Weekend G-7 meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around mid $69 and high $69 (Today’s economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11:30GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11:30AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises in early trading session
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD weakens in mid trading session.
• US capital strengthens in mid trading session.
•JPY weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil strengthens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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