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Market Snapshot 05.01.09
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Construction spending -Nov- (-1.3%).
2.Last Friday's US economic releases, -actual- US ISM Manufacturing -Dec- (32.4) and ISM Price paid -Dec- (18.0).
3.USD rose against the euro and the yen today on speculation President-elect Barack Obama's fiscal stimulus will help the US economy recover from the recession, while ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said further interest-rate reductions may be necessary should inflation keep slowing.
4.USD rose to near a 2-week high against the euro and three-week high versus the yen last Friday as a rally in US stocks increases traders risk appetite and encouraged investors to buy dollar-denominated assets, while the euro weakens amid European manufacturing report indicated the recession is deepening in the region.
5.USD remained strong against most currencies last Friday despite the ISM factory index fell to 32.4 and the lowest level since 1980 as European manufacturing report spurred speculation that the ECB will slash its target rate further to bolster EU's economy, while the pound declined to the lowest in almost 7 years against the dollar as UK mortgage approvals slid to the weakest level since at least 1999.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
•Recovery on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – USD/CAD - AUD/USD -
-According to 12.05GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and Asia extended rose on speculation that central bank interest rate cuts, government efforts to revive the global economy through tax cuts and spending will spur growth.
2.JPY fell to a 3-week low against the dollar last Friday as US stocks climbed to a 2-month high amid GM got its first cash infusion worth $4Billion from the government and rising oil prices lifted energy producer shares.
3.US stock markets rose last Friday after as GM led automakers shares higher after the company got its first cash infusion from government and higher oil prices led energy producer shares higher, overshadowed reports that showed the decline in US manufacturing deepened in December as ISM factory index which fell to the lowest level since 1980.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
•Further plan/measure by the US government to prop up the region's economy.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.05GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone Sentix consumer confidence -Jan- (-34.4), Italy CPI -YoY-MoM- (2.2% - -0.1%) and Italy CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (2.3% - -0.2%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France Consumer confidence indicator -Dec- (-44), France Services PMI -Dec- (41.6), Germany Services PMI -Dec- (46.4), Germany Services PMI -Dec- (42.0), Euro-zone Services PMI -Dec- (38.3), Euro-zone CPI Estimate -Dec- (1.8%).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today despite European investor confidence increased for the first time in 7 months in January, as ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said further interest-rate reductions may be necessary should inflation keep slowing, while reports showed Italy inflation fell to the lowest in 14 months.
4.EUR fell to near a 2 weeks low against the dollar last Friday despite US ISM factory index slid to the lowest since 1980 as US stock markets rallied after GM got its first cash infusion from the government, which spurred demand for US denominated assets.
5.The euro remained weak last week amid a report earlier showed manufacturing in Europe contracted at its fastest pace on record in December, signaling the recession is deepening and adding pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates further this year.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after last week's decline.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on interest rate cut speculation.
•Deteriorating economies in the EU region.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases. (Important)
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.05GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose today despite the dollar climbed versus the euro after Israeli troops entered the Gaza Strip, escalating the conflict and threatening stability in the Middle East, raising concerns that fuel supplies in the region may be disrupted if crisis worsens.
2.Crude oil rose last Friday despite the dollar climbed against the dollar as the conflict in Gaza increased concern that Middle East supplies would be disrupts and Russia curbed natural-gas shipments to Ukraine, tightening supplies.
3.Oil prices remained strong last Friday despite reports showed European manufacturing in Europe contracted at its fastest pace on record in December and US ISM manufacturing index fell to the lowest leve; since 1980 as Israeli warplanes conducted fresh attacks against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, raising concerns for more violence in the region.
On the upside:
•Unrest in Gaza strip.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around high $46 and mid $46 (Today's US economic releases, US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.05GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.05PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in early trading session.
•US stock index slightly rise in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly recover in early trading session.
•Crude oil weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD strengthen by late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly advance in late trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in late trading session.
•EUR weaken by late trading session.
•Crude oil slide in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Construction spending -Nov- (-1.3%).
2.Last Friday's US economic releases, -actual- US ISM Manufacturing -Dec- (32.4) and ISM Price paid -Dec- (18.0).
3.USD rose against the euro and the yen today on speculation President-elect Barack Obama's fiscal stimulus will help the US economy recover from the recession, while ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said further interest-rate reductions may be necessary should inflation keep slowing.
4.USD rose to near a 2-week high against the euro and three-week high versus the yen last Friday as a rally in US stocks increases traders risk appetite and encouraged investors to buy dollar-denominated assets, while the euro weakens amid European manufacturing report indicated the recession is deepening in the region.
5.USD remained strong against most currencies last Friday despite the ISM factory index fell to 32.4 and the lowest level since 1980 as European manufacturing report spurred speculation that the ECB will slash its target rate further to bolster EU's economy, while the pound declined to the lowest in almost 7 years against the dollar as UK mortgage approvals slid to the weakest level since at least 1999.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
•Recovery on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – USD/CAD - AUD/USD -
-According to 12.05GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and Asia extended rose on speculation that central bank interest rate cuts, government efforts to revive the global economy through tax cuts and spending will spur growth.
2.JPY fell to a 3-week low against the dollar last Friday as US stocks climbed to a 2-month high amid GM got its first cash infusion worth $4Billion from the government and rising oil prices lifted energy producer shares.
3.US stock markets rose last Friday after as GM led automakers shares higher after the company got its first cash infusion from government and higher oil prices led energy producer shares higher, overshadowed reports that showed the decline in US manufacturing deepened in December as ISM factory index which fell to the lowest level since 1980.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
•Further plan/measure by the US government to prop up the region's economy.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.05GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone Sentix consumer confidence -Jan- (-34.4), Italy CPI -YoY-MoM- (2.2% - -0.1%) and Italy CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (2.3% - -0.2%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France Consumer confidence indicator -Dec- (-44), France Services PMI -Dec- (41.6), Germany Services PMI -Dec- (46.4), Germany Services PMI -Dec- (42.0), Euro-zone Services PMI -Dec- (38.3), Euro-zone CPI Estimate -Dec- (1.8%).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today despite European investor confidence increased for the first time in 7 months in January, as ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said further interest-rate reductions may be necessary should inflation keep slowing, while reports showed Italy inflation fell to the lowest in 14 months.
4.EUR fell to near a 2 weeks low against the dollar last Friday despite US ISM factory index slid to the lowest since 1980 as US stock markets rallied after GM got its first cash infusion from the government, which spurred demand for US denominated assets.
5.The euro remained weak last week amid a report earlier showed manufacturing in Europe contracted at its fastest pace on record in December, signaling the recession is deepening and adding pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates further this year.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after last week's decline.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on interest rate cut speculation.
•Deteriorating economies in the EU region.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases. (Important)
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.05GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose today despite the dollar climbed versus the euro after Israeli troops entered the Gaza Strip, escalating the conflict and threatening stability in the Middle East, raising concerns that fuel supplies in the region may be disrupted if crisis worsens.
2.Crude oil rose last Friday despite the dollar climbed against the dollar as the conflict in Gaza increased concern that Middle East supplies would be disrupts and Russia curbed natural-gas shipments to Ukraine, tightening supplies.
3.Oil prices remained strong last Friday despite reports showed European manufacturing in Europe contracted at its fastest pace on record in December and US ISM manufacturing index fell to the lowest leve; since 1980 as Israeli warplanes conducted fresh attacks against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, raising concerns for more violence in the region.
On the upside:
•Unrest in Gaza strip.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around high $46 and mid $46 (Today's US economic releases, US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.05GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.05PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in early trading session.
•US stock index slightly rise in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly recover in early trading session.
•Crude oil weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD strengthen by late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly advance in late trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in late trading session.
•EUR weaken by late trading session.
•Crude oil slide in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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