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Market Snapshot 07.04.09
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism -Apr- (48.5), US Consumer credit -Feb- (-$3.0B) and ABC Consumer confidence -Apr5- (-49).
2.USD strengthened against most currencies today as demand for the dollar as safe haven rose after stocks in Europe and US stock index futures declined on speculation that global banks will post more losses and may need to seek more loans from the government as revenue plummet, spurring skepticism the global economy is stabilizing.
3.USD strengthened against most currencies yesterday as US stocks fell for the first time in 5 days after analysts and financial institution signaled that stocks rally may not last and corporate profits may fall on weaker economy.
4.The dollar pared its losses and advanced versus euro yesterday as demand for the greenback as safe haven increase amid stocks decline and earlier ECB member Lorenzo said the bank can intervene in the currency market if needed, suggesting that the central bank will propose additional fiscal stimulus to stimulate growth in the region.
On the upside:
•Figures that suggest economies in EU contracts faster than expected.
•US stocks may decline further on concern corporate profit report will disappoint investors' expectation.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise further on signs US economy is stabilizing.
•Light retreat after early gains.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Statements/comments by Europe's officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – USD/CHF – AUD/USD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Japan economic release, -forecast- Japan Current account total -Feb- (1071.9B Yen), Japan Trade balance -Feb- (142.0B Yen), Publication of BOJ monthly report, Japan Eco watchers survey Current -Mar- (20.9) and Japan Eco watchers survey Outlook -Mar- (28)
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and US stock index futures dropped after George Soros said the month long rally in equities won't last and a report showed Europe's r economy contracts more than estimated in the 4th quarter, adding to evidence that recession in Euro-zone is deepening.
3.JPY pared its losses against most currencies yesterday as US stocks fell after analysts advised to sell bank shares and said US stocks rally may not last as government measures to shore up banks may not help as much as expected.
On the upside:
•Stocks may decline further on selling pressure on skepticism that banks downfall is bottoming.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rose on optimism that global economy is stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Japan economic releases.
•US Stocks movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY - AUD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone GDP -YoY-QoQ- (-1.5% - -1.6%), Euro-zone Households consumption -4thQ- (-0.3%) and Euro-zone Government expenditure -4thQ- (0.4%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Trade balance -Feb- (7.5B Euros), Germany Current account -Feb- (5.8B Euros), Germany Imports -Feb- (-2.3%), Germany Exports -Feb- (3.3%), BOF Business sentiment -Mar- (72) and Germany Factory orders -Feb- (-2.1%).
3.EUR fell against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and US stock index futures fell, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven and as a report showed Europe's recession deepened more than estimated in the 4th quarter after companies scaled back production and consumer spending declined.
4.EUR fell against the dollar yesterday as US stocks in fell, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven and as analysts said that stocks rally may not last as measures to shore up banks may be inadequate.
5.The euro pared its early gains against most currencies yesterday as investors sell the euro in favor for the dollar amid US stocks declined and earlier report showed European producer prices fell more than economists forecast in February and retail sales dropped by a record, adding evidence that recession in the Euro-zone region is deepening.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
•Some recovery after early trading session loss.
On the downside:
•Deepening recession in Euro-zone.
•Stocks may retreat further on selling pressure on skepticism that the global economy is stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF - EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthened against the euro and investors speculated that a report tomorrow that may show US inventories rose 1.25Million barrels, going beyond the 15-year high as the recession curbs fuel demand.
2.Crude oil fell yesterday as the dollar strengthened against the euro and as US stocks declined on speculation that bank loan losses will increase, spurring concerns that global economy deteriorate and lead to weaker oil consumption.
3.Oil prices remained weak yesterday as analysts said tomorrow's storage report will show US crude oil inventories rose as fuel consumption decline and OPEC production cuts to trim oversupply in the market failed to keep pace with falling demand.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen as demand for safe haven may rise after job markets report.
•Further selling pressure on stocks decline.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $50 and mid $50 (Today's economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreats in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock market slightly recovers in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly recovers in early trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly weakens in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism -Apr- (48.5), US Consumer credit -Feb- (-$3.0B) and ABC Consumer confidence -Apr5- (-49).
2.USD strengthened against most currencies today as demand for the dollar as safe haven rose after stocks in Europe and US stock index futures declined on speculation that global banks will post more losses and may need to seek more loans from the government as revenue plummet, spurring skepticism the global economy is stabilizing.
3.USD strengthened against most currencies yesterday as US stocks fell for the first time in 5 days after analysts and financial institution signaled that stocks rally may not last and corporate profits may fall on weaker economy.
4.The dollar pared its losses and advanced versus euro yesterday as demand for the greenback as safe haven increase amid stocks decline and earlier ECB member Lorenzo said the bank can intervene in the currency market if needed, suggesting that the central bank will propose additional fiscal stimulus to stimulate growth in the region.
On the upside:
•Figures that suggest economies in EU contracts faster than expected.
•US stocks may decline further on concern corporate profit report will disappoint investors' expectation.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise further on signs US economy is stabilizing.
•Light retreat after early gains.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Statements/comments by Europe's officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – USD/CHF – AUD/USD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Japan economic release, -forecast- Japan Current account total -Feb- (1071.9B Yen), Japan Trade balance -Feb- (142.0B Yen), Publication of BOJ monthly report, Japan Eco watchers survey Current -Mar- (20.9) and Japan Eco watchers survey Outlook -Mar- (28)
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and US stock index futures dropped after George Soros said the month long rally in equities won't last and a report showed Europe's r economy contracts more than estimated in the 4th quarter, adding to evidence that recession in Euro-zone is deepening.
3.JPY pared its losses against most currencies yesterday as US stocks fell after analysts advised to sell bank shares and said US stocks rally may not last as government measures to shore up banks may not help as much as expected.
On the upside:
•Stocks may decline further on selling pressure on skepticism that banks downfall is bottoming.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rose on optimism that global economy is stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Japan economic releases.
•US Stocks movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY - AUD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone GDP -YoY-QoQ- (-1.5% - -1.6%), Euro-zone Households consumption -4thQ- (-0.3%) and Euro-zone Government expenditure -4thQ- (0.4%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Trade balance -Feb- (7.5B Euros), Germany Current account -Feb- (5.8B Euros), Germany Imports -Feb- (-2.3%), Germany Exports -Feb- (3.3%), BOF Business sentiment -Mar- (72) and Germany Factory orders -Feb- (-2.1%).
3.EUR fell against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and US stock index futures fell, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven and as a report showed Europe's recession deepened more than estimated in the 4th quarter after companies scaled back production and consumer spending declined.
4.EUR fell against the dollar yesterday as US stocks in fell, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven and as analysts said that stocks rally may not last as measures to shore up banks may be inadequate.
5.The euro pared its early gains against most currencies yesterday as investors sell the euro in favor for the dollar amid US stocks declined and earlier report showed European producer prices fell more than economists forecast in February and retail sales dropped by a record, adding evidence that recession in the Euro-zone region is deepening.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
•Some recovery after early trading session loss.
On the downside:
•Deepening recession in Euro-zone.
•Stocks may retreat further on selling pressure on skepticism that the global economy is stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF - EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthened against the euro and investors speculated that a report tomorrow that may show US inventories rose 1.25Million barrels, going beyond the 15-year high as the recession curbs fuel demand.
2.Crude oil fell yesterday as the dollar strengthened against the euro and as US stocks declined on speculation that bank loan losses will increase, spurring concerns that global economy deteriorate and lead to weaker oil consumption.
3.Oil prices remained weak yesterday as analysts said tomorrow's storage report will show US crude oil inventories rose as fuel consumption decline and OPEC production cuts to trim oversupply in the market failed to keep pace with falling demand.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen as demand for safe haven may rise after job markets report.
•Further selling pressure on stocks decline.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $50 and mid $50 (Today's economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreats in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock market slightly recovers in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly recovers in early trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly weakens in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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