USD
Brief:
1. USD fell against the euro for a 2nd day before a report showed European investor confidence rose to the highest level since July 2008, signaling the region’s recession is easing and reduces demand for the dollar as safe haven.
2. The dollar remained weak today as stocks in Asia rose on buying interest and stocks in Europe advances as investors speculates that a German report will show factory orders expanded in July for a 5th month.
3. EU is combining with domestic stimulus measures to help to pull the economy out of a recession, while Finance chiefs from the G-20 nations meeting in London last week vowed to sustain efforts to boost the global economy.
On the upside:
• Non-US stocks may retreat today if on profit taking after late last week advances.
On the downside:
• Non-US Stocks may rise further on buying interest.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 11:10GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Trade balance –July- (640B Yen) Japan Current account total –July- (1892.0B Yen), Japan Adjusted current account –July- (1410B Yen) and Japan M3 –Aug- (1.7%).
2. Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Eco watchers survey Current –Aug- (43.1) and Japan Eco watchers survey outlook –Aug- (45.2)
3. JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe advances as investors speculate a German report will show factory orders expanded in July for a 5 month and there are signs that economy in Asia is recovering.
On the upside:
•Non-US stocks may slightly retreat today as investor may exit position on profit taking.
On the downside:
•Non-US stocks may advance today on buying interest.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 11:35GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence -Sep- (-14.6) and Germany Factory orders -July- (3.5%).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Trade balance –July- (14.8B Euros), Germany Current account –July- (16.4B Euros), Germany Imports –July- (7.2%), Germany Exports –July- (7.4%) and Germany Industrial production –July- (0.3%).
3. EUR strengthen against the dollar today after a report showed European investor confidence rose to the highest level since July 2008, and stocks in Europe advanced, signaling the region’s recession is easing.
On the upside:
•Non-US stocks may rise on buying interest; dampen demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the downside:
•Further decline as retreating stocks may increase demand for the dollar.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/JPY– EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 11:35GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil slightly rises today as the dollar fell and on speculation OPEC will maintain curbs on output as supplies stay ample at the end of the US peak summer demand season.
2. Oil price remain strong today as stocks in Asia and Europe advance, leading commodities prices higher, while finance chief of the G-20 nations vowing to sustain efforts to boost economic recovery, spurring speculation fuel demand will increase.
On the upside:
•Non-US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may slightly strengthen if Non-US stocks fall.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week’s US economic releases.
•Hurricane season.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $68 and mid $68(Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11:35GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11:35AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session.
•US capital markets. (Close)
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets. (Close)
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets. (Close)
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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