USD
Brief:
1.Last Friday's US Economic releases, -actual- US NFP -May- (-345k), US Unemployment rate -May- (-9.4%), US Change in manufacturing payrolls -May- (-156k), US Average hourly earnings -YoY-MoM- (3.1% - 0.1%) and US Consumer credit -Apr- (-$15.7B).
2.USD strengthened against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, raising appeal of the dollar safe haven and as investors' speculates that recent euro rally versus the dollar was overdone and too fast to sustain.
3.USD strengthens against most currencies last Friday as economic data showed evidence the US recession is easing, boosting demand for dollar denominated assets and on speculation US will lead the global economy out of its slump.
4.US stocks and the dollar remained strong last Friday as a report showed US payrolls fell by 345,000 in May, less than anticipated, spurring speculation that US economy is recovering faster than expected.
On the upside:
•Further buying interest on the dollar as figures indicates job market is stabilizing.
On the downside:
•Some selling pressure after last Friday's gain.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
Long: USD/CAD - USD/CHF - USD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – USD/CAD – USD/JPY -
-According to 16.50GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Money stock M3 -May- (1.8%), Japan Adjusted current account total -Apr- (966.3B Yen), Japan Trade balance -Apr- (184.3B Yen), Japan Eco watchers survey Current -May- (36.7) and Japan Eco watchers survey outlook -May- (43.3).
2.JPY strengthens against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, reducing demand for carry trade and as investors' said last week decline versus the dollar was overdone.
3.JPY fell against most currencies last Friday as US stocks rose after Labor Department said payrolls fell by 345,000 in May, compared with an average estimate for a decrease of 520,000 jobs predicted by analysts.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat after last weeks' gains.
On the downside:
•Stocks may advance on economic data which indicates global economy is recovering.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY – AUD/JPY - GBP/JPY
-According to 16.50GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany Factory orders -Apr- (0.0%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Trade balance -Apr- (9.3B Euros), Germany Current account -Apr- (10.0B Euros), Germany Imports -Apr- (0.5%), Germany Exports -Apr- (-0.1%), BOF Business sentiment -May- (77), France Trade balance -Apr- (-4.5B Euros), Germany Industrial production -Apr- (0.3%).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today as stocks Europe declined and investors raised bets Fed will increase interest rates by the end of the year as the economy recovers.
4.EUR fell against most currencies last Friday as demand for the dollar as safe haven rose after a report showed US payrolls fell more than expected in May, boosting speculation that US economy will lead global economy from slump, increases demand for dollar denominated assets.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•The euro may retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
-According to 16.50GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthens against the euro and a decline in European and Asian equity markets leads overall commodities lower.
2.Crude oil fell from a 7-month high last Friday as the dollar advanced, reducing commodities appeal as inflation hedge and earlier report indicates US fuel consumption remained weak despite stabilizing economy.
3.Oil prices remained weak last Friday as analysts said crude oil may fall this week on speculation US stockpiles will increase as consumption tumbles despite improving job market.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure intense on lower fuel consumption.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $66 and high $66 (US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
inquiries
-According to 16.50GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (16.50M) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreats in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly strengthens early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthens in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weakens in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weakens in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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