Market snapshot 08.09.09
USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US Consumer credit –July- (-$15.6B) and ABC Consumer confidence index –Sep6- (-42).
2. USD fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe rallied, after reports showed UK manufacturing production increased more than expected in July, spurring speculation that economy in the region is recovering quickly and increases investors risk appetite.
3. The dollar remained weak against the euro today as French business confidence rose for a 6th month in August after recovering exports and government stimulus helped end the worst recession since WW2.
On the upside:
• US stocks may retreat today after last week’s advancement.
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise further if there is encouraging events that boost equities market.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 10:55GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Trade balance –July- (437.3B Yen) Japan Current account total –July- (1265.0B Yen), Japan Adjusted current account –July- (1159B Yen), Japan M3 –Aug- (2.0%), Japan Eco watchers survey Current –Aug- (41.7) and Japan Eco watchers survey outlook –Aug- (44.0)
2. Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Coincident index –July- (92.0), Japan Leading index –July- (82.0) and Japan Machine tool orders –Aug- (-64.8%).
3. JPY erases its gains and fell against most currencies today as stock in Asia and Europe rose after a report showed UK manufacturing production increase more than estimate In July and France business confidence rose for a 6th month in August.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today as investor may exit position on profit taking.
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance today on buying interest amid encouraging economic figures.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 10:55GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1. Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Germany Trade balance –July- (13.9B Euros), Germany Current account –July- (11.0B Euros), Germany Imports –July- (0.0%), Germany Exports –July- (2.3%) and Germany Industrial production –July- (1.6f%).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany CPI –YoY-MoM- (-0.2% - -0.4%).
3. EUR strengthen against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe advanced after reports showed UK manufacturing production increase more than expected in July and France business confidence rose in August , while US index futures rose as commodity producers climbed with metal prices.
On the upside:
•US stocks may rise on buying interest; dampen demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the downside:
•Further decline as retreating stocks may increase demand for the dollar.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: EUR/JPY– EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 10:55GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil rose today as the dollar decline and on speculation OPEC will leave output quotas unchanged ahead of the peak global demand period in the 4th quarter, tightening fuel supplies.
2. Oil price remain strong today as stocks in Asia and Europe advance, leading commodities prices higher, while encouraging economic figures from Europe spurred speculation fuel demand in the region will increase.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may slightly strengthen after recent retreat.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases.
•Hurricane season.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $69 mid and high $69 (Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 10:50GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (10:55AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly strengthen in early trading session
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly decline in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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