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Market Snapshot 08.10.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast – US Pending home sales -MoM- (-1.1%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Consumer credit -Aug- (-$7.9B).
3.USD fell against the euro today after the Fed reduced its target lending rate by 0.5% to 1.5% while the ECB and the central banks of the UK, Canada, Sweden and Switzerland are also reducing rates, the Fed said.
4.USD fell against the euro yesterday after Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled policy makers are ready to lower interest rates as the credit freeze poses an escalating danger to the economy while FOMC meeting minutes showed that some officials then saw a need for a rate cut should there be a significant worsening of the growth outlook.
5.USD remains weak against the euro yesterday as a report showed Germany Factory orders increased more than expected in August and the IMF said US economy will expand 0.1% in 2009, after growth of 1.6% this year.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (GBP and CHF)
•Buying interest and demand for dollar on funding.
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US job markets/economy will worsen.
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – GBP/USD -
Long: USD/JPY – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: - EUR/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Eco Watchers survey Current -Sep- (28) and Japan Eco Watchers survey Outlook -Sep- (32.1).
2.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Machine orders -MoM- (-2.7%).
2.JPY pared its gain against most currencies today as US stock index futures advanced and European shares pared losses after central banks in the US and Europe unexpectedly slashed interest rates.
3.JPY is little change against the dollar and the euro yesterday amid US stocks tumbled, sending the S&P 500 Index below 1,000 for the first time since 2003, on speculation banks and real estate companies are running short of money as the credit crisis worsens.
4.The yen pared its gains against the euro yesterday as the Fed announcement that it will buy commercial paper encouraged investors to resume carry trades.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•European stocks may tumbles on spreading credit crisis in the region.
On the downside:
•Buying interest on US stocks after recent retreat.
•US stocks might rebound on short-covering.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•News related to major institution.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – CAD/JPY - EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: – USD/JPY – CAD/JPY -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Trade balance -Aug- (-5.4B Euros), Euro-zone GDP -YoY-QoQ- (1.4% - -0.2%) and Germany Industrial production -MoM- (3.4%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Trade balance -Aug- (12.0B Euros), Germany Current account -Aug- (9.0B Euros), Germany Imports -MoM- (-2.0%), Germany Exports -MoM- (0.5%), Germany Wholesale price index -YoY-MoM- (No forecast figures) and Publication of ECB's monthly report.
3.EUR strengthened against most currencies today as the dollar weakens, amid report showed Europe's economy contracted in the second quarter as company investment and consumer spending declined, putting the region on the brink of a recession.
4.EUR strengthened against the dollar yesterday after Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled policy makers are ready to lower interest rates as the credit freeze poses an escalating danger to the economy, but gains are limited as the IMF suggested that the ECB has scope to reduce borrowing costs to help limit economic damage from the financial market crisis.
5.The euro pared its losses against the yen and remains strong against most currencies yesterday amid investors raised bets on the ECB reducing rates as soon as next month after President Trichet on Oct 2 said inflation pressures are diminishing.
On the upside:
•Possible coordinate action by EU and/or ECB policy makers.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Growing concerns over spreading credit related losses in the region.
•Rate cut speculation.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/NZD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/CAD – EUR/NZD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rebounded from a 10 months low today as the dollar fell after central banks in the US, Europe and China reduced interest rates to thaw credit markets.
2.Crude oil rose for the first time in a week yesterday, as the dollar fell against the euro and US stock tumbled, raising appeal for commodities as an inflation and investment hedge.
3.Crude oil remains on the upside yesterday as Libya's top oil official called for a production cut amid falling oil prices and Qatar's oil minister said the country is reducing output in line with quote.
On the upside:
•Production cut threat.
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's Storage report.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•USD movement.
•US indexes movement
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around high $88 and low $89 (Today's storage report, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.00PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly recovers on early trading session.
•US rises on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets rises on mid trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•Crude oil rises by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast – US Pending home sales -MoM- (-1.1%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Consumer credit -Aug- (-$7.9B).
3.USD fell against the euro today after the Fed reduced its target lending rate by 0.5% to 1.5% while the ECB and the central banks of the UK, Canada, Sweden and Switzerland are also reducing rates, the Fed said.
4.USD fell against the euro yesterday after Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled policy makers are ready to lower interest rates as the credit freeze poses an escalating danger to the economy while FOMC meeting minutes showed that some officials then saw a need for a rate cut should there be a significant worsening of the growth outlook.
5.USD remains weak against the euro yesterday as a report showed Germany Factory orders increased more than expected in August and the IMF said US economy will expand 0.1% in 2009, after growth of 1.6% this year.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (GBP and CHF)
•Buying interest and demand for dollar on funding.
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US job markets/economy will worsen.
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – GBP/USD -
Long: USD/JPY – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: - EUR/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Eco Watchers survey Current -Sep- (28) and Japan Eco Watchers survey Outlook -Sep- (32.1).
2.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Machine orders -MoM- (-2.7%).
2.JPY pared its gain against most currencies today as US stock index futures advanced and European shares pared losses after central banks in the US and Europe unexpectedly slashed interest rates.
3.JPY is little change against the dollar and the euro yesterday amid US stocks tumbled, sending the S&P 500 Index below 1,000 for the first time since 2003, on speculation banks and real estate companies are running short of money as the credit crisis worsens.
4.The yen pared its gains against the euro yesterday as the Fed announcement that it will buy commercial paper encouraged investors to resume carry trades.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•European stocks may tumbles on spreading credit crisis in the region.
On the downside:
•Buying interest on US stocks after recent retreat.
•US stocks might rebound on short-covering.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•News related to major institution.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – CAD/JPY - EUR/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: – USD/JPY – CAD/JPY -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Trade balance -Aug- (-5.4B Euros), Euro-zone GDP -YoY-QoQ- (1.4% - -0.2%) and Germany Industrial production -MoM- (3.4%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Trade balance -Aug- (12.0B Euros), Germany Current account -Aug- (9.0B Euros), Germany Imports -MoM- (-2.0%), Germany Exports -MoM- (0.5%), Germany Wholesale price index -YoY-MoM- (No forecast figures) and Publication of ECB's monthly report.
3.EUR strengthened against most currencies today as the dollar weakens, amid report showed Europe's economy contracted in the second quarter as company investment and consumer spending declined, putting the region on the brink of a recession.
4.EUR strengthened against the dollar yesterday after Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled policy makers are ready to lower interest rates as the credit freeze poses an escalating danger to the economy, but gains are limited as the IMF suggested that the ECB has scope to reduce borrowing costs to help limit economic damage from the financial market crisis.
5.The euro pared its losses against the yen and remains strong against most currencies yesterday amid investors raised bets on the ECB reducing rates as soon as next month after President Trichet on Oct 2 said inflation pressures are diminishing.
On the upside:
•Possible coordinate action by EU and/or ECB policy makers.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Growing concerns over spreading credit related losses in the region.
•Rate cut speculation.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/NZD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/CAD – EUR/NZD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rebounded from a 10 months low today as the dollar fell after central banks in the US, Europe and China reduced interest rates to thaw credit markets.
2.Crude oil rose for the first time in a week yesterday, as the dollar fell against the euro and US stock tumbled, raising appeal for commodities as an inflation and investment hedge.
3.Crude oil remains on the upside yesterday as Libya's top oil official called for a production cut amid falling oil prices and Qatar's oil minister said the country is reducing output in line with quote.
On the upside:
•Production cut threat.
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's Storage report.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•USD movement.
•US indexes movement
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around high $88 and low $89 (Today's storage report, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.00PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly recovers on early trading session.
•US rises on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets rises on mid trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•Crude oil rises by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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