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Market Snapshot 09.03.09
USD
Brief:
1.Last Friday's US economic releases, -actual- US NFP -Feb- (-651k), US Unemployment rate -Feb- (8.1%), US Change in manufacturing payrolls -Feb- (-168k), US Average hourly earnings -YoY-MoM- (3.6% - 0.2%) and US Consumer credit -Jan- ($1.76B).
2.USD strengthen against most currencies today as demand for the currency as safe haven rose as stocks in Asia and Europe fall and after Japan posted its first current account deficit for the first time in 13 years as exports collapsed and UK government took control of Lloyds banking group Plc raised concerns that further nationalization of banks may shatter shareholders confidence.
3.USD fell against most currencies last Friday as reports showed the pace of US job losses slowed in February and consumer credit increased in January for the 1st time in 4 months, reducing demand for the dollar as a refuge from global economic turmoil.
4.The dollar pared its losses amid weakening demand last Friday tumbled in early and mid trading session before a rapid recovery by late trading session as oil surge led energy shares higher and on short-covering as investor exits\\' position ahead of weekend.
On the upside:
•Faster than expected economy contraction in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise on buying interest.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•Progresses on the $410Billion package.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – USD/CHF – EUR/USD – GBP/USD -
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY – GBP/USD – EUR/USD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday\\'s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Current account total -Jan- (-172.8B Yen), Japan adjusted current account total -Jan- (258.0B Yen), Japan Trade balance -Jan- (-844.4B Yen), Japan M3 -Feb- (1.1%), Japan Eco watchers survey Outlook -Feb- (26.5) and Japan Eco watchers survey Current -Feb- (19.4).
2.Tomorrow\\'s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Leading index -Jan- (76), Japan Coincident index -Jan- (86.7) and Japan Machine tool orders -Feb- (-83.2%).
3.JPY fell against the dollar today as Japan posted its first trade deficit in 13 years, overshadowing declining stocks in Europe and Asia, while US index futures retreated after billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the economy has fallen off a cliff and the UK government took control of Lloyds Banking Group, raising concerns over further nationalization of banks may destroy shareholders.
4.JPY fell against most currencies last Friday after reports showed US job losses slowed in February and US consumer credit increased in January for the first time in 4 months, increases investor risk appetite and reducing demand for safe haven.
5.The yen retreated from early gains last Friday as US stocks rose in the final hour of trading, led by banks and energy shares, as General Electric plan to bolster capital and oil surge sent the energy shares higher.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
On the downside:
•Additional stimulus or fiscal aid for Americans/corporate.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•US Stocks movement.
•Progresses on the $410Billion package.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' speech.
•BOJ Members\\' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – USD/JPY – EUR/JPY- AUD/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence -Mar- (-42.7)
2.Tomorrow\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (0.7% - -0.6%), Germany Trade balance -Jan- (10.0B Euros), Germany Current account -Jan- (11.5B Euros), Germany Imports -Jan- (-5.2%), Germany Exports -Jan- (-5.4%), France Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-11.8% - -0.7%), France Manufacturing -YoY-MoM- (-15.1% - -3.2%) and France Trade balance -Jan- (No forecast figures).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell after the UK government took a majority stake in Lloyds Banking Group Plc, and HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe\\'s largest bank fell to the lowest level since May 1995, raising appeal of the dollar as safe haven.
4.EUR pared its gains buy remained strong against most currencies last Friday as reports showed US job losses slowed in February and consumer credit increased for the first time in 4 months in January, while US stocks rebounded at the last hour of trading, reducing demand for safe haven as investor risk appetite grows.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package for Americans.
On the downside:.
•Deteriorating economies in Europe.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•Tomorrow\\'s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•ECB\\'s members\\' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose to the highest in nearly 6 weeks today on speculation the OPEC will struggle to keep oil prices above $50 and decide to reduce output by an additional 800,000 barrels a day to comply with existing quota reductions.
2.Crude oil rose to a 5-week high last Friday as the dollar weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment despite report showed US unemployment advanced to the highest level in 25 years.
3.Oil prices remained strong last Friday on speculation OPEC will consider a 4th production cut when ministers meet on March 15 and as a report showed US consumer credit rose in January for the first time in 4 months, spurring speculation fuel demand will recover.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Further evidence showing deepening recession in the US, Europe and China.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•Speculation on this week\\'s OPEC meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•OPEC members\\' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $45 and high $45 (US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in early trading session.
•US stock markets slightly recover in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthen in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD weaken in late trading session.
•US capital markets strengthen by late trading session.
•JPY weaken in late trading session.
•EUR strengthen in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Last Friday's US economic releases, -actual- US NFP -Feb- (-651k), US Unemployment rate -Feb- (8.1%), US Change in manufacturing payrolls -Feb- (-168k), US Average hourly earnings -YoY-MoM- (3.6% - 0.2%) and US Consumer credit -Jan- ($1.76B).
2.USD strengthen against most currencies today as demand for the currency as safe haven rose as stocks in Asia and Europe fall and after Japan posted its first current account deficit for the first time in 13 years as exports collapsed and UK government took control of Lloyds banking group Plc raised concerns that further nationalization of banks may shatter shareholders confidence.
3.USD fell against most currencies last Friday as reports showed the pace of US job losses slowed in February and consumer credit increased in January for the 1st time in 4 months, reducing demand for the dollar as a refuge from global economic turmoil.
4.The dollar pared its losses amid weakening demand last Friday tumbled in early and mid trading session before a rapid recovery by late trading session as oil surge led energy shares higher and on short-covering as investor exits\\' position ahead of weekend.
On the upside:
•Faster than expected economy contraction in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise on buying interest.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•Progresses on the $410Billion package.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – USD/CHF – EUR/USD – GBP/USD -
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY – GBP/USD – EUR/USD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday\\'s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Current account total -Jan- (-172.8B Yen), Japan adjusted current account total -Jan- (258.0B Yen), Japan Trade balance -Jan- (-844.4B Yen), Japan M3 -Feb- (1.1%), Japan Eco watchers survey Outlook -Feb- (26.5) and Japan Eco watchers survey Current -Feb- (19.4).
2.Tomorrow\\'s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Leading index -Jan- (76), Japan Coincident index -Jan- (86.7) and Japan Machine tool orders -Feb- (-83.2%).
3.JPY fell against the dollar today as Japan posted its first trade deficit in 13 years, overshadowing declining stocks in Europe and Asia, while US index futures retreated after billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the economy has fallen off a cliff and the UK government took control of Lloyds Banking Group, raising concerns over further nationalization of banks may destroy shareholders.
4.JPY fell against most currencies last Friday after reports showed US job losses slowed in February and US consumer credit increased in January for the first time in 4 months, increases investor risk appetite and reducing demand for safe haven.
5.The yen retreated from early gains last Friday as US stocks rose in the final hour of trading, led by banks and energy shares, as General Electric plan to bolster capital and oil surge sent the energy shares higher.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
On the downside:
•Additional stimulus or fiscal aid for Americans/corporate.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•US Stocks movement.
•Progresses on the $410Billion package.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' speech.
•BOJ Members\\' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – USD/JPY – EUR/JPY- AUD/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence -Mar- (-42.7)
2.Tomorrow\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (0.7% - -0.6%), Germany Trade balance -Jan- (10.0B Euros), Germany Current account -Jan- (11.5B Euros), Germany Imports -Jan- (-5.2%), Germany Exports -Jan- (-5.4%), France Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-11.8% - -0.7%), France Manufacturing -YoY-MoM- (-15.1% - -3.2%) and France Trade balance -Jan- (No forecast figures).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell after the UK government took a majority stake in Lloyds Banking Group Plc, and HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe\\'s largest bank fell to the lowest level since May 1995, raising appeal of the dollar as safe haven.
4.EUR pared its gains buy remained strong against most currencies last Friday as reports showed US job losses slowed in February and consumer credit increased for the first time in 4 months in January, while US stocks rebounded at the last hour of trading, reducing demand for safe haven as investor risk appetite grows.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package for Americans.
On the downside:.
•Deteriorating economies in Europe.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•Tomorrow\\'s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•ECB\\'s members\\' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose to the highest in nearly 6 weeks today on speculation the OPEC will struggle to keep oil prices above $50 and decide to reduce output by an additional 800,000 barrels a day to comply with existing quota reductions.
2.Crude oil rose to a 5-week high last Friday as the dollar weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment despite report showed US unemployment advanced to the highest level in 25 years.
3.Oil prices remained strong last Friday on speculation OPEC will consider a 4th production cut when ministers meet on March 15 and as a report showed US consumer credit rose in January for the first time in 4 months, spurring speculation fuel demand will recover.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Further evidence showing deepening recession in the US, Europe and China.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week\\'s US economic releases.
•Speculation on this week\\'s OPEC meeting.
•Fed/Treasury members\\' statements/comments.
•OPEC members\\' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $45 and high $45 (US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in early trading session.
•US stock markets slightly recover in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthen in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD weaken in late trading session.
•US capital markets strengthen by late trading session.
•JPY weaken in late trading session.
•EUR strengthen in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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