USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Trade balance -Apr- (-$28.7B) and Publication of Fed's beige book.
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Wholesale inventories -Apr- (-1.4%) and ABC Consumer confidence -Jun7- (-47).
3.USD fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe rose, reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven and as analysts said surging unemployment in the US will delay a recovery in consumer spending, prolonging economic recovery.
4.USD fell against the euro yesterday as US stocks advanced, led by technology shares, overshadowed declines in consumer and industrial shares and on speculation the global recession may be ending, damped demand for the US currency as a refuge.
On the upside:
•Buying interest on prospect that US economy will led global economy out from slump.
On the downside:
•US stocks may rally further.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
Long: USD/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – USD/CAD –
-According to 11.50GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan GDP -1stQ- (-4.0%) and Japan GDP Deflator -1stQ- (1.1%).
2.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Machine orders -YoY-MoM- (-32.8% - -5.4%) and Japan Domestic corporate goods price index -YoY-MoM- (-5.4% - -0.4%).
3.JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks rose around the world and US futures gained, led by commodity producers as oil climbed to a 7-month high and precious metals rally.
4.JPY fell against the euro and pound yesterday as most US stocks advanced led by technology shares, which overshadowed declines in consumer and industrial shares.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat on profit taking.
On the downside:
•Stocks may advance on economic data which further indicates US economy will recover in 2nd half of the year.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY – AUD/JPY - GBP/JPY
-According to 11.50GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (0.0% - -0.1%), Germany CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (0.0% - -0.1%), France Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-18.8% - -1.4%), France Manufacturing production -YoY-MoM- (-19.7% - -0.5%), Italy Industrial production -Apr- (1.1%), Italy Exports -1stQ- (-11.8) and Italy Imports -1stQ- (-9.2).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Publication of ECB monthly report -June-.
3.EUR strengthens against the dollar today despite a report showed Germany exports fell more than economists forecast in April, as investors' speculates the global recession may be ending and Euro-zone economy will recover in 2nd half of the year.
4.EUR advances against the dollar yesterday as US stocks rose, led by technology shares, overshadowed in consumer and industrial shares while reducing appeal of the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•The euro may retreat on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
-According to 11.50GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose to a 7-month high today as the dollar fell against the euro, raising appeal of commodities as inflation hedge and as OPEC said the group will only consider increasing output when the price of crude rises to $100.
2.Crude oil rose for yesterday as the dollar fell against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
3.Oil prices remained strong yesterday as analysts said before a report today that crude oil supplies probably fell 5.96Million barrels to 357.9Million last week, while Gasoline supplies probably increased by 750,000 barrels.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on lower fuel consumption.
•The dollar may slightly recover after yesterday's decline.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $71 and mid $71 (Today's US economic releases, storage report, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11.50GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11.50AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly recovers in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weakens early trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly retreats in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•US stock markets strengthens in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets weakens in late trading session.
•JPY strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil decline in late trading session. (Depends on storage report)
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
