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Market Snapshot 10.09.08
USD
Brief:
1.USD strengthens today as the euro fell after European Commission cut its growth estimate for the euro area this year and economists said that spending spree by US consumers will come to an abrupt end this quarter as job losses cause Americans to slowdown down
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism -September- (45.8), US Pending home sales -MoM- (-3.2%), US Wholesale inventories -July- (14%) and ABC Consumer confidence (-47).
3.USD fell against as the euro on short-covering and after by the National Association of Realtors said the index of pending home resales fell 3.2% in July.
4.The dollar remains weak yesterday as a report showed showed inventories at US wholesalers increased 1.4%, twice as fast as forecast in July as their sales slid.
On the upside:
•Buying interest on speculation Euro-zone economy may slip into recession.
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US job markets will worsen.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone publication.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•Fed members outlook and statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Major financial companies' earnings report.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – NZD/USD -
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF – (Light)
Possible main pairs are: – GBP/USD - EUR/USD –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual– Japan Domestic corporate goods price index -YoY-MoM- (7.2% - -0.1%), Japan Trade balance -July- (232.2B Yen), Japan Adjusted Current account total -July- (1555.9B Yen) and Japan Leading index -July- (91.9).
2.JPY weakens against most currencies today amid European stocks fell as the European Commission cut its forecast for the region's economic growth and analysts speculated bank losses will increase.
3.JPY remains strong today as reports showed Japan's wholesale inflation rate fell 0.1% in August but still close to a 27 years high and a separate report showed Japan's trade balance narrowed to 232.2B Yen in July as record oil prices pushed up the import bill.
4.JPY rose against most currencies yesterday as US stocks tumbled as concern about Lehman Brothers Holdings ability to raise capital rattled the banking and financial industry while a drop in oil pushed energy companies down.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•European markets tumbles on weaker growth outlook.
On the downside:
•The yen might slightly recovers against the yen after recent retreat.
•Speculation that Japan's economy may deteriorates further.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone publication.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•News related to major institution.
•US Indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate fiscal reports.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - CAD/JPY – GBP/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: - USD/JPY – CAD/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Trade balance -July- (-4.8B Euros), France Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-2.0% - 1.2%), Italy Trade balance Non-EU -July- (-1636B Euros), Italy GDP -YoY-QoQ- (-0.1% - -0.3%), Italy Exports -2ndQ- (-0.7%) and Italy Imports -2ndQ- (0.3%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France NFP -2ndQ- (-0.1%), Publication of ECB's monthly report and Publication on European Commission growth forecast.
3.EUR fell against the dollar today after the European Commission cut its growth estimate for the euro area this year and signaled it may also lower its 2009 forecast as the US and Asian economies cool.
4.The euro remains weak against the dollar today as report showed Italy consumer spending and exports, declined in the 2nd quarter, pushing the country closer to a recession and raising concern the slowdown will spread.
5.EUR rises against the dollar yesterday as the dollar fell on short-covering and after reports showed US wholesale inventories increased twice as much as expected in July while pending home sales in the US fell more than expected in August.
6.The euro remains strong against the dollar but fell to a 1 year low against the yen yesterday amid a report showed Germany exports declined more than forecast in July and EU will cut its economic growth forecast this week as confidence wanes and inflation expectations increase.
On the upside:
•Some recovery against the yen after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Weaker outlook on Euro-zone economic growth.
•Easing inflation in the region.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone publication.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: - EUR/USD – EUR/GBP
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – (Light)
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/GBP –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil slightly rises today after OPEC urged its members to comply with output quotas, a move that would reduce supplies by 520,000 barrels a day while the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2008 and 2009 as high crude prices and the economic slowdown reduce US consumption.
2.Crude oil fell to a 5 months low yesterday amid the dollar fell as the Saudi Arabian oil ministers signaled that OPEC will maintain production levels amid falling oil prices.
3.Crude oil remains weak yesterday amid Exxon Mobil is evacuating workers from oil and natural gas production platforms that may be in the path of Hurricane Ike as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico as Venezuelan oil minister changed his mind yesterday by signaling he will call OPEC to maintain production levels, revoking his previous call to cut production.
4.Oil prices decline yesterday as Hurricane Ike moved over western Cuba and into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which may give the storm a power boost before it heads toward Texas, not center of Gulf states that predicted earlier.
On the upside:
•Atlantic ocean hurricanes activities.
•Production cut threat.
•Production disruption threat/speculation.
On the downside:
•Stronger/Stabilizing dollar.
To monitor:
•Today's storage report.
•Hurricane Ike.
•USD movement.
•OPEC meeting in Vienna.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities and weather report. (Sensitive)
•US indexes movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around low $102 and mid $102 (Today's storage report, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly rises on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets rises on mid trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD slightly rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.USD strengthens today as the euro fell after European Commission cut its growth estimate for the euro area this year and economists said that spending spree by US consumers will come to an abrupt end this quarter as job losses cause Americans to slowdown down
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism -September- (45.8), US Pending home sales -MoM- (-3.2%), US Wholesale inventories -July- (14%) and ABC Consumer confidence (-47).
3.USD fell against as the euro on short-covering and after by the National Association of Realtors said the index of pending home resales fell 3.2% in July.
4.The dollar remains weak yesterday as a report showed showed inventories at US wholesalers increased 1.4%, twice as fast as forecast in July as their sales slid.
On the upside:
•Buying interest on speculation Euro-zone economy may slip into recession.
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US job markets will worsen.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone publication.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•Fed members outlook and statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Major financial companies' earnings report.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – NZD/USD -
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF – (Light)
Possible main pairs are: – GBP/USD - EUR/USD –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual– Japan Domestic corporate goods price index -YoY-MoM- (7.2% - -0.1%), Japan Trade balance -July- (232.2B Yen), Japan Adjusted Current account total -July- (1555.9B Yen) and Japan Leading index -July- (91.9).
2.JPY weakens against most currencies today amid European stocks fell as the European Commission cut its forecast for the region's economic growth and analysts speculated bank losses will increase.
3.JPY remains strong today as reports showed Japan's wholesale inflation rate fell 0.1% in August but still close to a 27 years high and a separate report showed Japan's trade balance narrowed to 232.2B Yen in July as record oil prices pushed up the import bill.
4.JPY rose against most currencies yesterday as US stocks tumbled as concern about Lehman Brothers Holdings ability to raise capital rattled the banking and financial industry while a drop in oil pushed energy companies down.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•European markets tumbles on weaker growth outlook.
On the downside:
•The yen might slightly recovers against the yen after recent retreat.
•Speculation that Japan's economy may deteriorates further.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone publication.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•News related to major institution.
•US Indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate fiscal reports.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - CAD/JPY – GBP/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: - USD/JPY – CAD/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Trade balance -July- (-4.8B Euros), France Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-2.0% - 1.2%), Italy Trade balance Non-EU -July- (-1636B Euros), Italy GDP -YoY-QoQ- (-0.1% - -0.3%), Italy Exports -2ndQ- (-0.7%) and Italy Imports -2ndQ- (0.3%).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France NFP -2ndQ- (-0.1%), Publication of ECB's monthly report and Publication on European Commission growth forecast.
3.EUR fell against the dollar today after the European Commission cut its growth estimate for the euro area this year and signaled it may also lower its 2009 forecast as the US and Asian economies cool.
4.The euro remains weak against the dollar today as report showed Italy consumer spending and exports, declined in the 2nd quarter, pushing the country closer to a recession and raising concern the slowdown will spread.
5.EUR rises against the dollar yesterday as the dollar fell on short-covering and after reports showed US wholesale inventories increased twice as much as expected in July while pending home sales in the US fell more than expected in August.
6.The euro remains strong against the dollar but fell to a 1 year low against the yen yesterday amid a report showed Germany exports declined more than forecast in July and EU will cut its economic growth forecast this week as confidence wanes and inflation expectations increase.
On the upside:
•Some recovery against the yen after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Weaker outlook on Euro-zone economic growth.
•Easing inflation in the region.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone publication.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: - EUR/USD – EUR/GBP
Long: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – (Light)
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/GBP –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil slightly rises today after OPEC urged its members to comply with output quotas, a move that would reduce supplies by 520,000 barrels a day while the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand in 2008 and 2009 as high crude prices and the economic slowdown reduce US consumption.
2.Crude oil fell to a 5 months low yesterday amid the dollar fell as the Saudi Arabian oil ministers signaled that OPEC will maintain production levels amid falling oil prices.
3.Crude oil remains weak yesterday amid Exxon Mobil is evacuating workers from oil and natural gas production platforms that may be in the path of Hurricane Ike as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico as Venezuelan oil minister changed his mind yesterday by signaling he will call OPEC to maintain production levels, revoking his previous call to cut production.
4.Oil prices decline yesterday as Hurricane Ike moved over western Cuba and into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which may give the storm a power boost before it heads toward Texas, not center of Gulf states that predicted earlier.
On the upside:
•Atlantic ocean hurricanes activities.
•Production cut threat.
•Production disruption threat/speculation.
On the downside:
•Stronger/Stabilizing dollar.
To monitor:
•Today's storage report.
•Hurricane Ike.
•USD movement.
•OPEC meeting in Vienna.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities and weather report. (Sensitive)
•US indexes movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around low $102 and mid $102 (Today's storage report, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly rises on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets rises on mid trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD slightly rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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