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Market Snapshot 12.12.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Advance retail sales -Nov- (-1.8%), US Retail sales less autos -Nov- (-1.7%), US PPI -YoY-MoM- (0.2% - -1.8%), US PPI Ex-food and energy -YoY-MoM- (4.3% - 0.1%), University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Dec- (55.0) and US Business inventories -Oct- (-0.1%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Trade balance -Oct- (-57.2B), US Import price index -YoY-MoM- (-4.4% - -6.7%) and US Initial jobless claims -Dec6- (-573k).
3.USD pared its gains today after the US Senate rejected a $14Billion bailout for the nation’s automakers and economists said before a report today that sales at US retailers probably fell in November for a 5th straight month as a deteriorating labor market caused consumers to retrench.
4.USD fell to a 7-week low against the euro yesterday as the US trade deficit unexpectedly widened and ECB council member Axel Weber signaled the bank may be nearing the end of its rate cutting cycle amid Fed members are signaling that they may cut rates towards zero.
5.The dollar remained weak against most currencies yesterday despite US stock markets fell as US trade deficit unexpectedly widened and initial claims for unemployment benefits surged more than forecast last week to a 26-year high, signs that companies are stepping up firings as the recession deepens, crippling the economy and spurring speculation that the Fed will have to slash interest rate to relief the economy.
On the upside:
•Some recovery after yesterday's fall.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Industrial production -Oct- (-3.1%), Japan Consumer confidence -Nov- (28.7) and Japan Household confidence -Nov- (28.4).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today as stocks tumbled around the world and the dollar fell after the Senate rejected a bailout for American automakers, threatening to deepen the global recession.
3.JPY fell against the euro yesterday as US stock markets declined the most in a week after lawmakers said a $14Billion plan to rescue the nation's auto industry lacks the votes to pass the Senate and initial jobless claims jumped to a 26-year high, threatens to cripple the region's economy.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as economic downfall deepens.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Current account -Oct- (-5.0B Euros) and Euro-zone Industrial production -MoM- (-1.2%).
2.EUR rebounds against the dollar today after US Senate rejected a $14Billion bailout bill for automakers, threatening to cripple the auto industry in the region and ECB council member Axel Weber cautioned against reducing interest rates below 2%, suggesting the central bank are done cutting rates in the short-term.
3.EUR rose to near a 7 week high against the dollar after government reports showed US trade deficit unexpectedly widen in October and Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits surged to the highest level since 1982, threatening to pull recession in the region deeper.
4.The euro remained strong against most currencies yesterday as ECB council member Axel Weber signaled the bank may be nearing the end of its rate cutting cycle and US lawmakers said a $14Billion plan to rescue the nation's auto industry lacks the votes to pass the Senate.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreat on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Deteriorating economies in the region.
To monitor:
•Today's Us economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthens against the euro and after the US Senate rejected a bailout plan for automakers, raising concern that a prolonged recession will cut fuel demand.
2.Analysts said crude oil may rise next week on signs that OPEC will lower production targets at a December 17 meeting in Algeria to stem a 5-month slump in prices.
3.Crude oil rose 10% yesterday, the biggest gain in 5 weeks, as the dollar fell to near a 7 weeks low against the euro and after the Saudi Arabian oil minister said he had delivered the output cuts promised to OPEC, spurring speculation that world supplies are smaller than estimated.
4.Oil prices remained strong yesterday as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said his country may join OPEC and reduce output to support prices, suggesting that non-OPEC members maybe taking steps to support oil prices.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
•OPEC and Non-OPEC members may act to halt declining oil prices.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $44 and mid $44 (Today's US economic releases, US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weaken in early trading session.
•JPY strengthen following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weaken in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil weaken on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat by late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly recover in late trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen by late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Advance retail sales -Nov- (-1.8%), US Retail sales less autos -Nov- (-1.7%), US PPI -YoY-MoM- (0.2% - -1.8%), US PPI Ex-food and energy -YoY-MoM- (4.3% - 0.1%), University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Dec- (55.0) and US Business inventories -Oct- (-0.1%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Trade balance -Oct- (-57.2B), US Import price index -YoY-MoM- (-4.4% - -6.7%) and US Initial jobless claims -Dec6- (-573k).
3.USD pared its gains today after the US Senate rejected a $14Billion bailout for the nation’s automakers and economists said before a report today that sales at US retailers probably fell in November for a 5th straight month as a deteriorating labor market caused consumers to retrench.
4.USD fell to a 7-week low against the euro yesterday as the US trade deficit unexpectedly widened and ECB council member Axel Weber signaled the bank may be nearing the end of its rate cutting cycle amid Fed members are signaling that they may cut rates towards zero.
5.The dollar remained weak against most currencies yesterday despite US stock markets fell as US trade deficit unexpectedly widened and initial claims for unemployment benefits surged more than forecast last week to a 26-year high, signs that companies are stepping up firings as the recession deepens, crippling the economy and spurring speculation that the Fed will have to slash interest rate to relief the economy.
On the upside:
•Some recovery after yesterday's fall.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
-According to 12.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Industrial production -Oct- (-3.1%), Japan Consumer confidence -Nov- (28.7) and Japan Household confidence -Nov- (28.4).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today as stocks tumbled around the world and the dollar fell after the Senate rejected a bailout for American automakers, threatening to deepen the global recession.
3.JPY fell against the euro yesterday as US stock markets declined the most in a week after lawmakers said a $14Billion plan to rescue the nation's auto industry lacks the votes to pass the Senate and initial jobless claims jumped to a 26-year high, threatens to cripple the region's economy.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as economic downfall deepens.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Current account -Oct- (-5.0B Euros) and Euro-zone Industrial production -MoM- (-1.2%).
2.EUR rebounds against the dollar today after US Senate rejected a $14Billion bailout bill for automakers, threatening to cripple the auto industry in the region and ECB council member Axel Weber cautioned against reducing interest rates below 2%, suggesting the central bank are done cutting rates in the short-term.
3.EUR rose to near a 7 week high against the dollar after government reports showed US trade deficit unexpectedly widen in October and Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits surged to the highest level since 1982, threatening to pull recession in the region deeper.
4.The euro remained strong against most currencies yesterday as ECB council member Axel Weber signaled the bank may be nearing the end of its rate cutting cycle and US lawmakers said a $14Billion plan to rescue the nation's auto industry lacks the votes to pass the Senate.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreat on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Deteriorating economies in the region.
To monitor:
•Today's Us economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthens against the euro and after the US Senate rejected a bailout plan for automakers, raising concern that a prolonged recession will cut fuel demand.
2.Analysts said crude oil may rise next week on signs that OPEC will lower production targets at a December 17 meeting in Algeria to stem a 5-month slump in prices.
3.Crude oil rose 10% yesterday, the biggest gain in 5 weeks, as the dollar fell to near a 7 weeks low against the euro and after the Saudi Arabian oil minister said he had delivered the output cuts promised to OPEC, spurring speculation that world supplies are smaller than estimated.
4.Oil prices remained strong yesterday as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said his country may join OPEC and reduce output to support prices, suggesting that non-OPEC members maybe taking steps to support oil prices.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
•OPEC and Non-OPEC members may act to halt declining oil prices.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $44 and mid $44 (Today's US economic releases, US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.25PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weaken in early trading session.
•JPY strengthen following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weaken in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil weaken on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat by late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly recover in late trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen by late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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