UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3239 7789 | support@fxservice.com
Market Snapshot 12.3.08
USD
Brief:
1.USD fell against the euro and the yen on speculation the Fed’s plan to provide funds to banks won’t be enough to break the gridlock in money market lending and stem credit losses.
2.USD slightly recovers against the euro, erasing earlier losses against the euro after Fed said it will pump $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage related losses.
3.The US trade deficit was smaller than forecast in January as a weaker dollar propelled gains in exports that will prevent a deeper economic slowdown.
4.USD rose the most in 6 months against the yen after the Fed said it will lend up to $200 billion of Treasuries to financial institutions, stocks rallied after the news.
5.Consumer spending at US retailers slowed in February as increasing fuel costs eroded Americans buying power, economists said reports this week will show.
On the upside:
•A relief after Fed pumps $200 billion into the financial system and trade deficit shows weaker dollar is helping exporters.
•ECB might intervene to slowdown the euro rally as it hurts euro-region exporter’s profits.
On the downside:
•Fed rate cut speculation, ranging from 0.75% and above.
•Further negative views towards US economy by economists.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury member’s statement/comments.
•Other Central banks or its member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY – NZD/USD – AUD/USD - GBP/USD
-According to 12.30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- BOJ Publishes meeting minutes (Feb), Japan GDP –QoQ- (0.9%), Japan GDP annualized (3.5%), Japan nominal GDP -4Q- (0.2%), Japan GDP deflator (-1.3%), Japan domestic corporate goods price index –YoY-MoM- (3.4% - 0.4%), Japan current account total –Jan- (1235.8B Yen) and Japan trade balance (85.8B Yen)
2.Japan’s economy grew more than economists estimated in the fourth quarter as exports helped the nation weather a housing slump.
3.JPY fell the most in 6 months against the dollar, retreating from record high as US capital markets gain the most in 5 years spurs carry trade demand.
4.US stock gain after Fed said it will pump $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage related losses, easing investors concern over banking credit squeeze.
On the upside:
•US capital markets might slightly weaken on early trading session after yesterday’s rally.
On the downside:
•US capital markets might rise further on buying interest.
•Cross currency strength. (USD and GBP)
To monitor:
•News related to major financial institution.
•US/Japan economic releases forecast.
•Cross currency strength and weakness (-Main- USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and GBP)
•Global capital markets movement, particularly US. (Main)
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY–
Possible main pairs are: – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY – GBP/JPY – USD/JPY
-According to 12.30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France CPI –YoY-MoM- (2.8% - 0.2%), France CPI EU-harmonized –YoY-MoM- (3.2% - 0.2%) and France CPI excluding tobacco products (116.57).
2.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France current account (No forecast figure), France NFP 4th –QoQ- (0.4%), Italy CPI –YoY-MoM- (2.9% - 0.3%) and Italy CPI EU-Harmonized –YoY-MoM- (3.1% - 0.1%)
3.EUR briefly rose to a record against the dollar after a private report showed investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly rose this month, but euro retreat from early trading session gains after Fed said it will pump $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage related losses.
4.The dollar gains against the EUR were limited as ECB member Axel Weber said he sees no room to cut rates as surge in oil prices and high inflation prevents ECB to do so.
5.EUR gained the most since January against the yen, as an industry report showed German investor confidence rose this month, the yen was further weakened by US stocks market rally.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY –Depends on capital markets, particularly US stocks market today- )
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD, AUD and NZD)
To monitor:
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Fed member’s statements/comments.
•ECB or its member’s statements/comments.
•Euro zone economic releases forecast.
•Cross currency strength and weakness.
•Influential news from US, UK and Euro zone.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/GBP – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD –
Long: EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD– EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD
-According to 12.30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil traded little changed before a government report expected to show US crude stockpiles increased last week, crude oil might slide if today’s storage report shows a healthy injection into storage.
2.Crude oil rose to another record briefly yesterday, rising above $109 before retreating as the dollar strengthens.
3.Crude oil retreats from record high as the dollar gain after the Fed said yesterday it would lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities in exchange for debt.
4.Crude oil inventories probably rose 1.75 million barrels last week, most analysts said before a government report today.
On the upside:
•Crude oil might rise further if USD weakens and stocks markets decline.
•Today’s storage report might post a surprise like last week report.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure as fundamentals is not favoring.
•Today’s storage report might further pressure crude oil prices which fundamental is not supporting at all.
•Weaker economy outlook. (Japan, US, China and Euro-region)
To monitor:
•USD movement.
•US capital markets movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
•OPEC member’s comments on crude oil price and production level.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around low $108 and mid $108
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.30GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly recovers on early trading session.
•US capital market remains or slightly strengthens on early trading session.
•JPY retreats following US capital markets surge.
•EUR slightly weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil falls on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens during mid trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly retreats on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD strengthens by late trading session on buying interest.
•US capital markets strengthens on late trading session.
•JPY weakens on late trading session, following US indexes rally.
•EUR weakens by late trading session on selling pressure.
•Crude oil remains falls on late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Brief:
1.USD fell against the euro and the yen on speculation the Fed’s plan to provide funds to banks won’t be enough to break the gridlock in money market lending and stem credit losses.
2.USD slightly recovers against the euro, erasing earlier losses against the euro after Fed said it will pump $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage related losses.
3.The US trade deficit was smaller than forecast in January as a weaker dollar propelled gains in exports that will prevent a deeper economic slowdown.
4.USD rose the most in 6 months against the yen after the Fed said it will lend up to $200 billion of Treasuries to financial institutions, stocks rallied after the news.
5.Consumer spending at US retailers slowed in February as increasing fuel costs eroded Americans buying power, economists said reports this week will show.
On the upside:
•A relief after Fed pumps $200 billion into the financial system and trade deficit shows weaker dollar is helping exporters.
•ECB might intervene to slowdown the euro rally as it hurts euro-region exporter’s profits.
On the downside:
•Fed rate cut speculation, ranging from 0.75% and above.
•Further negative views towards US economy by economists.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury member’s statement/comments.
•Other Central banks or its member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY – NZD/USD – AUD/USD - GBP/USD
-According to 12.30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- BOJ Publishes meeting minutes (Feb), Japan GDP –QoQ- (0.9%), Japan GDP annualized (3.5%), Japan nominal GDP -4Q- (0.2%), Japan GDP deflator (-1.3%), Japan domestic corporate goods price index –YoY-MoM- (3.4% - 0.4%), Japan current account total –Jan- (1235.8B Yen) and Japan trade balance (85.8B Yen)
2.Japan’s economy grew more than economists estimated in the fourth quarter as exports helped the nation weather a housing slump.
3.JPY fell the most in 6 months against the dollar, retreating from record high as US capital markets gain the most in 5 years spurs carry trade demand.
4.US stock gain after Fed said it will pump $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage related losses, easing investors concern over banking credit squeeze.
On the upside:
•US capital markets might slightly weaken on early trading session after yesterday’s rally.
On the downside:
•US capital markets might rise further on buying interest.
•Cross currency strength. (USD and GBP)
To monitor:
•News related to major financial institution.
•US/Japan economic releases forecast.
•Cross currency strength and weakness (-Main- USD, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and GBP)
•Global capital markets movement, particularly US. (Main)
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY–
Possible main pairs are: – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY – GBP/JPY – USD/JPY
-According to 12.30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France CPI –YoY-MoM- (2.8% - 0.2%), France CPI EU-harmonized –YoY-MoM- (3.2% - 0.2%) and France CPI excluding tobacco products (116.57).
2.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France current account (No forecast figure), France NFP 4th –QoQ- (0.4%), Italy CPI –YoY-MoM- (2.9% - 0.3%) and Italy CPI EU-Harmonized –YoY-MoM- (3.1% - 0.1%)
3.EUR briefly rose to a record against the dollar after a private report showed investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly rose this month, but euro retreat from early trading session gains after Fed said it will pump $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage related losses.
4.The dollar gains against the EUR were limited as ECB member Axel Weber said he sees no room to cut rates as surge in oil prices and high inflation prevents ECB to do so.
5.EUR gained the most since January against the yen, as an industry report showed German investor confidence rose this month, the yen was further weakened by US stocks market rally.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY –Depends on capital markets, particularly US stocks market today- )
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD, AUD and NZD)
To monitor:
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Fed member’s statements/comments.
•ECB or its member’s statements/comments.
•Euro zone economic releases forecast.
•Cross currency strength and weakness.
•Influential news from US, UK and Euro zone.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/GBP – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD –
Long: EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD– EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD
-According to 12.30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil traded little changed before a government report expected to show US crude stockpiles increased last week, crude oil might slide if today’s storage report shows a healthy injection into storage.
2.Crude oil rose to another record briefly yesterday, rising above $109 before retreating as the dollar strengthens.
3.Crude oil retreats from record high as the dollar gain after the Fed said yesterday it would lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities in exchange for debt.
4.Crude oil inventories probably rose 1.75 million barrels last week, most analysts said before a government report today.
On the upside:
•Crude oil might rise further if USD weakens and stocks markets decline.
•Today’s storage report might post a surprise like last week report.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure as fundamentals is not favoring.
•Today’s storage report might further pressure crude oil prices which fundamental is not supporting at all.
•Weaker economy outlook. (Japan, US, China and Euro-region)
To monitor:
•USD movement.
•US capital markets movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
•OPEC member’s comments on crude oil price and production level.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around low $108 and mid $108
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.30GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly recovers on early trading session.
•US capital market remains or slightly strengthens on early trading session.
•JPY retreats following US capital markets surge.
•EUR slightly weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil falls on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens during mid trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly retreats on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD strengthens by late trading session on buying interest.
•US capital markets strengthens on late trading session.
•JPY weakens on late trading session, following US indexes rally.
•EUR weakens by late trading session on selling pressure.
•Crude oil remains falls on late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
|
