Market snapshot 13.05.09
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US MBA Mortgage application -May8- (4.5%), US Advance retail sales -Apr- (0.0%), US Retail sales less autos -Apr- (0.2%), US Import price index -YoY-MoM- (-16.8% - 0.6%), US Business inventories -Mar- (-1.1%) and Treasury secretary Geithner at community bankers' meeting.
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Trade balance -Mar- ($29.0B), US IBD/TIPP Economic optimism -May- (51.0), US Monthly budget statement -Apr- (-$20.0B) and ABC Consumer confidence -May10- (-42).
3.USD strengthens against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, increases demand for the currency as safe haven and a report showed Europe's industrial production fell the most on record, spurring skepticism that the region's economy will rebound in 2nd half of the year.
4.USD pared its losses after the currency slid beyond $1.37 versus the euro for the first time since March yesterday US stocks fell as share sales at Ford Motor, US Bancorp and Anadarko Petroleum heightened concern that earnings will be weaken by capital raising efforts.
5.The dollar remained weak yesterday as US reported its first budget deficit for April in 26 years as exports slumped to a 2-year low, overwhelming a reduction in American demand for goods made abroad.
On the upside:
•The dollar may rise as recent retreat was consider overdone.
•Stocks may retreat further on selling pressure.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on outlook that recession in US and Europe may be stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD – USD/JPY -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Trade balance -Mar- (132.9B Yen), Japan Current account total -Mar- (1485.6B Yen), Japan Adjusted Current account total -Mar- (902.3B Yen), Japan M3 -Apr- (1.7%), Japan Eco watchers survey Outlook -Apr- (39.7) and Japan Eco watchers survey Current -Apr- (34.2).
2. JPY strengthens against most currencies today stocks in Asia and Europe fell on concern weak non-banking earnings will prolong global recession, overshadowed a report that showed Europe's industrial production fell the most on record in March.
3.JPY fell strengthened against most currencies yesterday as US stocks fell, led by automakers shares, and as economists said the jobless rate will linger around 8% through 2011, raising concerns that economy will take longer to recover.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat, dragged by non-banking sector earnings report.
On the downside:
•The yen may weaken on speculation Japan's government will offer more stimulus package.
•Stocks may advance further as figures' indicates global economy may be recovering.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – USD/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 11.40GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France CPI -YoY-MoM- (0.1% - 0.2%), France CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (0.1% - 0.2%) and Euro-zone Industrial production -Mar- (-2.0%).
2.EUR fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe retreats, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven and a report showed Europe industrial production fell the most on record in March as the recession forced manufacturers to cut output, indicating that Europe's economy may not recovery as fast as previously expected.
3.EUR pared its gains versus the dollar yesterday as US stocks fell as share sales at Ford Motor, US Bancorp and Anadarko Petroleum heightened concern that earnings will be weaken by capital raising efforts, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven.
4.The euro pared its gains versus the euro and fell against the yen yesterday as US reported its first budget deficit for April in 26 years and economists said unemployment will average 8.5% in 2011, raising concerns over prolong job market recovery.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Stocks may retreat on selling pressure after recent gains.
•The euro may retreat further on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CAD –
-According to 11.40GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil erases its earlier gains and fell as the dollar advances versus the euro and declining equities drags commodities' prices lower, while analysts said before a report today that storage report will showed US crude oil inventories climbed by 1Million barrels last week as fuel demand tumbles.
2.Crude oil declined yesterday as the dollar pared its losses versus the euro and as U.S. equities dropped and on expectations that a government report will show U.S. inventories increased for a 10th week.
3.Oil prices remained weak yesterday as declining equities dragged commodities' prices lower and analysts said before a report today that stockpiles climbed 1Million barrels last week as fuel demand plunged.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Some retreat on selling pressure after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Today's storage report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $59 and mid $59 (Today's economic releases, storage report, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11.40GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11.40PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets slightly retreats in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recovers in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreats in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly recovers in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly recovers in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly slightly weakens in mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil decline in late trading session. (Depends on storage report)
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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