Market snapshot 14.08.09
USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US CPI –YoY-MoM- (-1.9% - 0.0%), US CPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (1.6% - 0.2%), US Industrial production –July- (0.2%) and University of Michigan consumer confidence index –Aug- (69).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -forecast- US Initial jobless claims –Aug8- (558k), US Import price index –YoY-MoM- (-19.3% - -0.7%), US Advance retail sales –July- (-0.1%), US Retail sales less autos –July- (-0.6%) and US Business inventories –June- (-1.1%).
3. USD strengthen against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and US Futures index decline, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven as recent instability in equities encourage investors to be extra cautious.
4. The dollar remained strong against the euro today as a government report showed European consumer prices fell the most in at least 13 years, reducing the likelihood ECB will raise interest rates.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat today as investors exit position ahead of weekends.
On the downside:
•Stocks may advance further if major corporate announces revenue that beats analysts estimate.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD –
Long: USD/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – USD/CAD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD -
-According to 12:00GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tertiary index –June- (0.1%).
2. JPY strengthen against most currencies today as stocks in Europe decline, and US stock-index futures swung between gains and losses before reports on industrial production and consumer sentiment today.
3. The yen remained strong today as a report showed Japan’s demand for services rose unexpectedly in June as government stimulus measures spurred consumer spending, adding to sign that the economy is emerging from a recession.
On the upside:
•US stocks may retreat as investors exit position ahead of weekend.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rally further on speculation major corporate earnings will beat analyst estimate.
•Buying interest on optimism that global recession is abating and US economy grow at a favorable pace
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY – EUR/JPY - AUD/JPY -
-According to 12:00GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone Core CPI –YoY- (1.3%) and Euro-zone CPI –MoM- (-0.7%).
2. EUR fell against the dollar today as a report showed European consumer prices dropped more than initially estimated in July as energy costs decreased and rising unemployment prompted households to cut spending, spurring speculation that ECB will not raise rates in the near term.
3. The euro remained weak against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and US futures index declines on selling pressure as investors seeks safe haven amid stocks market instability.
On the upside:
•Demand for the dollar as safe haven may fall on speculation the recession is nearing an end.
On the downside:
•US stocks may retreat on profit taking as investors exit positions ahead of weekends.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/JPY– EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12:00GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil rose today before a report forecast to show that industrial production in the US rose for the first time in nine months, adding to optimism the global economy is reviving and spurring speculation that fuel demand will increase as economy revives.
2. Oil prices fell yesterday on profit taking amid US stocks swing between gains and losses, while dollar recovery reduces appeal of commodities as inflation hedge.
On the upside:
•Stocks may advance further if major corporate post better than expected earnings.
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen on buying interest.
•Oil may decline today as investors exit position ahead of weekend.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $70 and low $71 (Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12:00GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12:00AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets rises in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly recovers in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets retreats mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats in late trading session.
•JPY strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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