Market snapshot 15.07.09
USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US CPI –YoY-MoM- (-1.6% – 0.6%), US CPI Ex-food and energy –YoY-MoM- (1.7% - 0.1%), US Empire manufacturing –July- (-5), US Industrial production –June- (-0.6%) and Publication of FOMC Meeting minutes.
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US PPI –YoY-MoM- (-4.8% - 1.8%), US PPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (3.3% - 0.5%), US Advance retail sales –June- (0.6%), US Retail sales less auto –June- (0.3%), US IBD/TIPP Economics optimism –July- (46.3%) and US Business Inventories –May- (-1.0%).
3. USD fell against most currencies today as economists said a US report today will show the contraction in industrial production slowed, damping demand for safer assets and as advancing stocks in Asia and Europe reduces demand for the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly recover after early session loss.
On the downside:
•Buying interest on the euro on speculation governments will increase efforts to boost the region’s economy.
•Stocks may advance further on speculation major corporate earnings will show improvement.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY –
Long: USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – USD/CAD - EUR/USD – AUD/USD -
-According to 11.25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Tertiary industry index –MoM- (0.3%).
2. JPY fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe rose amid Goldman earnings report beats estimate yesterday, spurring speculation that financial sector in US is stabilizing and on route to recovery.
3. The yen remained weak today as stocks in Europe rose, led by UK after a report showed the country’s unemployment claims rose the least in a year in June, adding to evidence that the worst of the recession may have passed.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest as demand for safe haven remain strong.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rally further on speculation major corporate earnings will beat estimate.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: AUD/JPY - GBP/JPY – USD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 11.50GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy CPI –YoY-MoM- (0.5% - 0.1%) Italy CPI EU-Harmonized –YoY-MoM- (5.0% - 0.6%) and Euro-zone CPI –June- (0.2%).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France CPI –YoY-MoM- (-0.4% - 0.3%), France CPI EU-Harmonized –YoY-MoM- (-0.5% - 0.2%) and Italy Trade balance –May- (0.0M Euros)
3. EUR strengthens against most currencies today as the dollar fell as advancing stocks in Asia and Europe reduces demand for the dollar as safe haven and investors risk appetite grows on speculation financial sector in the US are stabilizing.
On the upside:
•Further buying interest on speculation for additional stimulus package.
•Demand for the dollar as safe haven may fall as major corporate earnings report indicates recovery.
On the downside:
•US stocks may retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 11.25GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil rose today as rising stocks in Asia and Europe push commodities price higher and spurring speculation that recovering economy will boost fuel demand and an a report showed drop in gasoline stockpiles in the US.
2. Oil prices remained strong today despite analysts said a report today may show that stockpiles gained for a 5th week by 1.6Million barrels and gasoline inventories probably rose by 875,000 barrels
On the upside:
•Oil prices may climb higher on buying interest after recent retreat.
•The dollar may decline further today as demand for safe haven weakens.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on speculation prolonging global recession will sap demand.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow’s storage report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $60 and high $60 (Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11.25GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11.25AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly advances in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthens in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in mid trading session.
•US stock markets retreat in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weakens in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly retreats in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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