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Market Snapshot 16.04.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US CPI –YoY-MoM- (4.0% - 0.3%), US CPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (2.4% - 0.2%), US Housing Starts (1020k) and US Industrial production (-0.1%).
2.Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US PPI –YoY-MoM- (6.9% - 1.1%), US PPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (2.7% - 0.2%), US Empire manufacturing –Apr- (0.6), US Long-term TIC Flows –Feb- ($72.5B) and NAHB Housing market index (20.0).
3.USD fell to a record low against the euro today after European inflation accelerated in March, reducing the chances that the ECB will follow the Fed in cutting interest rates.
4.USD strengthens against most currencies yesterday after manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly grew 0.6 against earlier forecast of -18.0.
5.US producer prices rose almost twice as much as forecast at 1.1%, reducing the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates more than a quarter point this month.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY, EUR, GBP, CAD and CHF)
•USD might recover against the euro after yesterday report suggest manufacturing sector is recovering while inflation might rise on higher PPI.
On the downside:
•The dollar might fall as increasing investors speculate on another rate cut by Fed this month, putting pressure on the dollar.
•More losses reported by major corporate.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very important)
•US capital markets movement.
•News/statements related to Major institution.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: – USD/CAD – EUR/USD – GBP/USD – USD/JPY – AUD/USD – USD/CHF
-According to 13.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Industrial production –YoY-MoM- (No forecast figures)
2.JPY weakens against the pound and euro after global capital markets rose after Intel Corp sales forecast and Coca-Cola Co earnings topped analysts estimates, easing concern an economic slowdown will drag down profits.
3.JPY weakens against most currencies yesterday after US stocks market rose for the first time in three days, led by financial and energy shares, on better than forecast earnings at regional banks and record prices for oil and gasoline
4.US stocks markets were further supported after a government report showed manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly grew 0.6 far better than analysts forecast of -18.0.
On the upside:
•US capital markets might retreat further if disappointing news continuously surface on the market.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD, EUR, GBP and AUD)
•US stock markets might further rally today after a government report yesterday showed manufacturing in New York State unexpectedly bounced and other region in the US might follow trend.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very important)
•Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•News related to major institution.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY – USD/JPY
-According to 13.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany CPI –YoY-MoM- (3.1% - 0.5%), Germany CPI EU-Harmonized (3.3% - 0.5%), Italy Trade balance (-408Million Euros), Euro-zone CPI –YoY-MoM- (3.6% - 1.0%) and Euro-zone CPI –Core-YoY- (2.0%).
2.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italy Current account (No forecast figures) and Euro-zone Trade balance (-3.5B Euros).
3.EUR rose to a record against the dollar after European inflation accelerated in March, reducing the chances that ECB will follow the Fed in cutting interest rates.
4.The European CPI rose to 3.6% last month, the highest in almost 16 years, the European Union’s statistics said today.
5.Yesterday’s ZEW survey showed investor and analyst expectations declined to minus 40.7 an unexpectedly fell in April on concern faster inflation, a stronger euro and fallout from the US housing recession will hurt company earnings.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY, CAD and CHF)
•If today’s US economic release posted weaker than expected figures, we might see another record price against the dollar.
•ECB member’s statement concerning inflation may suggest ECB is not likely to cut its benchmark rate in the near term.
On the downside:
•Yesterday ZEW survey showed weak investors and analyst expectations on Euro-zone economies might prompt some investors losing confidence over Euro dominated assets.
•Today’s rally against the dollar on early trading session is considered overbought.
•Major European institution posting worse than expected earnings.
•Weaker Euro-zone economic growth outlook.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very Important)
•Tomorrow’s ECB Monthly report publication.
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•ECB or other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD - EUR/GBP
Long: EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF –– EUR/USD – EUR/AUD – EUR/CAD
-According to 13.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose to a record above $114 a barrel for a second day today as the dollar plunged to an all time low against the euro as European inflation accelerated to a 16 years high.
2.Crude oil rose to another record yesterday amid reopened two of its oil export terminals on the Gulf of Mexico and investors speculate today’s storage report to show gasoline inventories dropped again last week by 1.8Million barrels.
3.Today’s storage report is expected to show crude oil supplies advanced 1.8Million while gasoline inventories dropped by 1.8Million barrels according most analysts.
4.Crude oil rose yesterday amid the dollar strengthens against the euro and manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly expanded which investors speculates recovering manufacturers production would support fuel demand.
On the upside:
•US stocks markets slump might prompts investors shifting their interest towards commodities.
•Dollar might weaken further on weaker than expected economic releases.
On the downside:
•USD might strengthen today against the euro on better than expected economic releases figures.
•Selling pressure mounts as crude oil reached another record, given the short time frame.
•Crude oil is pressured by strengthening dollar and weaker demand on slowing economic growth.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very important)
•Today’s Storage report. (Important)
•USD movement.
•US capital markets movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around high $113 and low $114 (Monitor Storage report, US Economic releases, USD Movement and US indexes movement.)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 13.15GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD recovers on early trading session. (Depends on today’s economic releases)
•US capital market rose on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR retreats on early trading session.
•Crude oil weakens on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens by mid trading session. (Depends on today’s economic releases)
•US capital markets strengthens on mid trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets strength.
•EUR weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•US capitals markets remains or slightly retreat by late trading session.
•JPY remains or slightly strengthens as US capital markets retreats.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls on late trading session
Loh Chang Yuen,
Brief:
1.Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US CPI –YoY-MoM- (4.0% - 0.3%), US CPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (2.4% - 0.2%), US Housing Starts (1020k) and US Industrial production (-0.1%).
2.Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US PPI –YoY-MoM- (6.9% - 1.1%), US PPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (2.7% - 0.2%), US Empire manufacturing –Apr- (0.6), US Long-term TIC Flows –Feb- ($72.5B) and NAHB Housing market index (20.0).
3.USD fell to a record low against the euro today after European inflation accelerated in March, reducing the chances that the ECB will follow the Fed in cutting interest rates.
4.USD strengthens against most currencies yesterday after manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly grew 0.6 against earlier forecast of -18.0.
5.US producer prices rose almost twice as much as forecast at 1.1%, reducing the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates more than a quarter point this month.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY, EUR, GBP, CAD and CHF)
•USD might recover against the euro after yesterday report suggest manufacturing sector is recovering while inflation might rise on higher PPI.
On the downside:
•The dollar might fall as increasing investors speculate on another rate cut by Fed this month, putting pressure on the dollar.
•More losses reported by major corporate.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very important)
•US capital markets movement.
•News/statements related to Major institution.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: – USD/CAD – EUR/USD – GBP/USD – USD/JPY – AUD/USD – USD/CHF
-According to 13.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Industrial production –YoY-MoM- (No forecast figures)
2.JPY weakens against the pound and euro after global capital markets rose after Intel Corp sales forecast and Coca-Cola Co earnings topped analysts estimates, easing concern an economic slowdown will drag down profits.
3.JPY weakens against most currencies yesterday after US stocks market rose for the first time in three days, led by financial and energy shares, on better than forecast earnings at regional banks and record prices for oil and gasoline
4.US stocks markets were further supported after a government report showed manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly grew 0.6 far better than analysts forecast of -18.0.
On the upside:
•US capital markets might retreat further if disappointing news continuously surface on the market.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD, EUR, GBP and AUD)
•US stock markets might further rally today after a government report yesterday showed manufacturing in New York State unexpectedly bounced and other region in the US might follow trend.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very important)
•Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•News related to major institution.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY – USD/JPY
-According to 13.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany CPI –YoY-MoM- (3.1% - 0.5%), Germany CPI EU-Harmonized (3.3% - 0.5%), Italy Trade balance (-408Million Euros), Euro-zone CPI –YoY-MoM- (3.6% - 1.0%) and Euro-zone CPI –Core-YoY- (2.0%).
2.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italy Current account (No forecast figures) and Euro-zone Trade balance (-3.5B Euros).
3.EUR rose to a record against the dollar after European inflation accelerated in March, reducing the chances that ECB will follow the Fed in cutting interest rates.
4.The European CPI rose to 3.6% last month, the highest in almost 16 years, the European Union’s statistics said today.
5.Yesterday’s ZEW survey showed investor and analyst expectations declined to minus 40.7 an unexpectedly fell in April on concern faster inflation, a stronger euro and fallout from the US housing recession will hurt company earnings.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY, CAD and CHF)
•If today’s US economic release posted weaker than expected figures, we might see another record price against the dollar.
•ECB member’s statement concerning inflation may suggest ECB is not likely to cut its benchmark rate in the near term.
On the downside:
•Yesterday ZEW survey showed weak investors and analyst expectations on Euro-zone economies might prompt some investors losing confidence over Euro dominated assets.
•Today’s rally against the dollar on early trading session is considered overbought.
•Major European institution posting worse than expected earnings.
•Weaker Euro-zone economic growth outlook.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very Important)
•Tomorrow’s ECB Monthly report publication.
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•ECB or other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD - EUR/GBP
Long: EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF –– EUR/USD – EUR/AUD – EUR/CAD
-According to 13.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose to a record above $114 a barrel for a second day today as the dollar plunged to an all time low against the euro as European inflation accelerated to a 16 years high.
2.Crude oil rose to another record yesterday amid reopened two of its oil export terminals on the Gulf of Mexico and investors speculate today’s storage report to show gasoline inventories dropped again last week by 1.8Million barrels.
3.Today’s storage report is expected to show crude oil supplies advanced 1.8Million while gasoline inventories dropped by 1.8Million barrels according most analysts.
4.Crude oil rose yesterday amid the dollar strengthens against the euro and manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly expanded which investors speculates recovering manufacturers production would support fuel demand.
On the upside:
•US stocks markets slump might prompts investors shifting their interest towards commodities.
•Dollar might weaken further on weaker than expected economic releases.
On the downside:
•USD might strengthen today against the euro on better than expected economic releases figures.
•Selling pressure mounts as crude oil reached another record, given the short time frame.
•Crude oil is pressured by strengthening dollar and weaker demand on slowing economic growth.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Very important)
•Today’s Storage report. (Important)
•USD movement.
•US capital markets movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around high $113 and low $114 (Monitor Storage report, US Economic releases, USD Movement and US indexes movement.)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 13.15GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD recovers on early trading session. (Depends on today’s economic releases)
•US capital market rose on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR retreats on early trading session.
•Crude oil weakens on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens by mid trading session. (Depends on today’s economic releases)
•US capital markets strengthens on mid trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets strength.
•EUR weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•US capitals markets remains or slightly retreat by late trading session.
•JPY remains or slightly strengthens as US capital markets retreats.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls on late trading session
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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