Market snapshot 16.07.09
USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US Initial jobless claims –July11- (555k), US Net Long-term TIC Flows –May- ($16.5B) and US Philadelphia Fed Index –July- (-5).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US CPI –YoY-MoM- (-1.6% – 0.6%), US CPI Ex-food and energy –YoY-MoM- (1.7% - 0.1%), US Empire manufacturing –July- (-5), US Industrial production –June- (-0.6%) and Publication of FOMC Meeting minutes.
3. USD rebounds from near a 2 week low today as stocks in Asia retreats and equities in Europe decline, boosting appeal of the dollar a safe haven.
4. The dollar fell to near a 2-week low against the euro yesterday as stocks in US rally after a report showed manufacturing in the New York region shrank this month at the slowest pace in more than a year, bolstered by the largest gain in orders since the recession began, reducing appeal of the dollar as safe haven.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat after yesterday’s gain.
On the downside:
•Buying interest on the euro on speculation governments will increase efforts to boost the region’s economy.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY –
Long: USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – USD/CAD - EUR/USD – AUD/USD -
-According to 10.45GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Coincident index –May- (87.6) and Japan Leading index –May- (76.8).
2. Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tertiary industry index –MoM- (-0.1%).
3. JPY strengthened against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe retreats as investors bets that yesterday gain was overdone as other sector 2nd quarter profit may be disappointing and global recession may lingers amid weaker consumer spending.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest as demand for safe haven remain strong.
•US stocks may retreat today on selling pressure.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rally further on speculation major corporate earnings will beat estimate.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: AUD/JPY - GBP/JPY – USD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 10.45GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France CPI –YoY-MoM- (-0.5% - 0.1%), France CPI EU-Harmonized –YoY-MoM- (-0.6% - 0.1%) and Italy Trade balance –May- (1187.0M Euros)
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italy Industrial orders –May- (1.0%) and Euro-zone Trade balance –May- (0.8B Euros).
3. EUR fell against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe retreats, increasing demand for the dollar as safe haven and some investors bet that yesterday; US stocks advances was overdone considering global economy remain weak.
On the upside:
•Further buying interest on speculation for additional stimulus package.
•Demand for the dollar as safe haven may fall as major corporate earnings report indicates recovery.
On the downside:
•US stocks may retreat on selling pressure after yesterday’s gain.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 10.45GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil rose for a second day as equities climbed and a government report showed a bigger-than-forecast drop in oil supplies in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer.
2. Crude oil rose yesterday as equities climbed and the dollar fell, pushing commodities higher, while a government report showed a bigger than forecast drop in oil supplies in the US.
3. Crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8Million barrels last week, gasoline inventories increased by 1.5Million barrels last week, while distillate inventories increased by 600,000 barrels last week.
4. US crude oil imports averaged at 9.5Million barrels per day last week, up 325,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and refineries operated at 87.9% of their maximum capacity last week, up 1.1% from the previous week.
On the upside:
•Stocks may advance further today if corporate earnings posted positive results.
On the downside:
•Stocks may retreat today after yesterday gain.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $61 and low $62 (Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 10.45GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (10.45AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weakens in early trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly retreats in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•US stock markets advance in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recovers in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets weakens in late trading session.
•JPY strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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