Market snapshot 17.09.09
USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US housing starts –Aug- (595k), US Initial jobless claims –Sep12- (595k) and US Philadelphia Fed –Sep- (8.1).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US CPI –YoY-Mom- (-1.5% - 0.4%), US CPI Ex food and energy –YoY-MoM- (1.4% - 0.1%),US Current account balance -2ndQ- (-$98.8B), US TIC Flows –July- (-$97.5B) and US Industrial production –Aug- (0.8%).
3. USD continues to hit new lows against the euro and as equities markets are rallying, increasing investors risk appetite and reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven, while the IMF expects G-20 countries to grow 3.2% next year after contracting 1.1% in 2009.
4. The dollar remained weak today as a report showed Japan’s economy grew in the 2nd quarter for the first time in more than a year, helped by some $2 trillion in global stimulus that bolstered exports, increases investors risk appetite.
On the upside:
• Some recovery after recent retreat.
On the downside:
• US stocks may rise further if there is encouraging events that boost equities market.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 10:30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Tomorrow’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Publication of BOJ monthly report, Japan leading index –July- (82.0) and Japan Coincident index –July- (91).
2. Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Tertiary Industry index -July- (0.60%) and BOJ Rate decision (0.1%)
3. JPY strengthen against most currencies despite stocks in Asia and Europe rose, after reports show UK economy shows signs of shaking off the recession and Japan’s economy grew in the 2nd quarter for the 1st time in more than a year.
4. The yen remained strong against most currencies today amid a survey showed Japan’s manufacturers turned optimistic for the first time in almost 2 years.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat today on some selling pressure.
On the downside:
•US stocks may advance today on buying interest amid encouraging economic figures.
•Some retreat after recent gains
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY -
-According to 10:30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone Trade balance –July- (6.8B Euros).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany PPI –YoY-MoM- (-7.20% - 0.20%) and Euro-zone Current account –July- (-6.4B Euros)
3. EUR strengthened against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe advances, reducing appeal of the dollar as safe haven and ECB raised its growth forecasts, while Finance ministers from the Group of 20 also committed to continuing emergency measures to help strengthen the global economic recovery.
On the upside:
•US stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
• May fall if stocks retreats.
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/CHF – EUR/USD -
-According to 11:35GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil topped $72 today as dollar slid to its weakest against the euro in almost a year, increasing appeal of commodities as inflation hedge
2. Oil price remain strong today as a government report yesterday showed crude oil inventories fell 4.73Million barrels, more than expected, while gasoline inventories increase by 500,000 barrels, and distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.2Million barrels.
3. Refineries operated at 86.9% of their maximum capacity, down 0.3% from the previous week, and US crude oil imports averaged 8.9Million barrels per day, down 192,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
On the upside:
•US Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may recover after recent retreat.
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
• Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $72 and low $73 (Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 10:30GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (10:30AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly retreats in early trading session
•JPY slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in mid trading session.
• US capital markets weaken in mid trading session.
•JPY strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil weakens in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in late trading session.
•US capital markets recovers in late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recovers in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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