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Market Snapshot 18.11.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US PPI -YoY-MoM- (6.2% - -1.8%), US PPI Ex-food and energy -YoY-MoM- (4.0% - 0.1%) and US Net Long-term TIC Flows -Sep- ($27.2B).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Empire manufacturing -Nov- (-27.0) and US Industrial production -Oct- (-0.2%).
3.USD rises against most currencies today as investor bought the dollar as haven from falling stocks in Europe and Asia and a report yesterday showed industrial production rebounded in October as refineries from Gulf Coast resumes operation.
4.USD weakens against the euro yesterday amid US stocks tumbled as Citigroup Inc plan to cut 52,000 jobs spurred concern the recession will deepen and more corporate may follow similar move.
5.The dollar remains weak against the euro yesterday as New York State manufacturing contracted this month at the fastest pace on record, adding to evidence that the US economy has fallen into a recession.
On the upside:
•Declining stocks markets and other central banks rate cut speculation.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•US stock markets might rebound after yesterday's losses.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD - USD/JPY – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – USD/JPY – USD/CHF - GBP/USD - AUD/USD – NZD/USD - EUR/USD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Leading index -Sep- (89.4) and Japan Coincident index -Sep- (100.9).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and Asia declined, led by commodity producers and financial companies on concern the deepening recession will erode profits.
3.JPY strengthens against most currencies yesterday as US stocks tumbled as a record contraction in New York manufacturing and Citigroup plan to cut 52,000 jobs reinforced concern US economy is already in recession.
4.The yen remains strong against the dollar and the euro yesterday amid Japan unexpectedly slid into a recession, but fell versus the pound amid Britain's biggest business lobby said the UK slump may be deeper than earlier predicted.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as recession concern grows.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
•Stocks might rebound after recent retreat.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – USD/JPY - AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.20GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Import price index -YoY-MoM- (5.0% - -1.4%).
2.EUR fell against the dollar today as stocks in Europe and Asia declined for a second day and UK's inflation rate dropped the most in 11years giving the BOE scope to cut interest rates further, increasing appeal of the dollar haven.
3.EUR rose against the dollar yesterday amid US stock markets tumbled as a record contraction in New York manufacturing and Citigroup plan to cut 52,000 jobs spurred concern the Euro-zone and Japan recession will deepen.
4.The euro pared its losses against the dollar yesterday amid a report showed Europe's trade gap remained close to a record in September on the impact of the global financial crisis, as a report showed record contraction in New York manufacturing spurred speculation that the Fed will have to slash its interest further to revive weakening US economy.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreats on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Falling stock markets.
•ECB members comments/statements that reinforced speculations for further rate reduction.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Oil slid to the lowest in almost 22 months today as analysts said before a report tomorrow that US crude oil stockpiles climbed 1 million barrels in the week ended November 14 an increase for an eighth week as a looming recession erodes demand worldwide.
2.Crude oil fell to a 22-month low yesterday despite the dollar fell as Japan entered its first recession since 2001 and China's largest oil producer said demand dropped sharply
3.Oil prices remains weak yesterday as a report showed manufacturing in New York contracted in November at the fastest pace on record, raised concern that fuel demand from industry will fall sharply amid financial crisis.
On the upside:
•Stock markets may rebound after last Friday's losses.
•Some recovery after recent losses.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $55 and high $56 (Today's US economic releases, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.20PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens on early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises on early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly rises on early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recovers on early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats by late trading session.
•JPY strengthens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil retreats by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US PPI -YoY-MoM- (6.2% - -1.8%), US PPI Ex-food and energy -YoY-MoM- (4.0% - 0.1%) and US Net Long-term TIC Flows -Sep- ($27.2B).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Empire manufacturing -Nov- (-27.0) and US Industrial production -Oct- (-0.2%).
3.USD rises against most currencies today as investor bought the dollar as haven from falling stocks in Europe and Asia and a report yesterday showed industrial production rebounded in October as refineries from Gulf Coast resumes operation.
4.USD weakens against the euro yesterday amid US stocks tumbled as Citigroup Inc plan to cut 52,000 jobs spurred concern the recession will deepen and more corporate may follow similar move.
5.The dollar remains weak against the euro yesterday as New York State manufacturing contracted this month at the fastest pace on record, adding to evidence that the US economy has fallen into a recession.
On the upside:
•Declining stocks markets and other central banks rate cut speculation.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•US stock markets might rebound after yesterday's losses.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD - USD/JPY – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – USD/JPY – USD/CHF - GBP/USD - AUD/USD – NZD/USD - EUR/USD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Leading index -Sep- (89.4) and Japan Coincident index -Sep- (100.9).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and Asia declined, led by commodity producers and financial companies on concern the deepening recession will erode profits.
3.JPY strengthens against most currencies yesterday as US stocks tumbled as a record contraction in New York manufacturing and Citigroup plan to cut 52,000 jobs reinforced concern US economy is already in recession.
4.The yen remains strong against the dollar and the euro yesterday amid Japan unexpectedly slid into a recession, but fell versus the pound amid Britain's biggest business lobby said the UK slump may be deeper than earlier predicted.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as recession concern grows.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
•Stocks might rebound after recent retreat.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY – USD/JPY - AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.20GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Import price index -YoY-MoM- (5.0% - -1.4%).
2.EUR fell against the dollar today as stocks in Europe and Asia declined for a second day and UK's inflation rate dropped the most in 11years giving the BOE scope to cut interest rates further, increasing appeal of the dollar haven.
3.EUR rose against the dollar yesterday amid US stock markets tumbled as a record contraction in New York manufacturing and Citigroup plan to cut 52,000 jobs spurred concern the Euro-zone and Japan recession will deepen.
4.The euro pared its losses against the dollar yesterday amid a report showed Europe's trade gap remained close to a record in September on the impact of the global financial crisis, as a report showed record contraction in New York manufacturing spurred speculation that the Fed will have to slash its interest further to revive weakening US economy.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreats on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Falling stock markets.
•ECB members comments/statements that reinforced speculations for further rate reduction.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Oil slid to the lowest in almost 22 months today as analysts said before a report tomorrow that US crude oil stockpiles climbed 1 million barrels in the week ended November 14 an increase for an eighth week as a looming recession erodes demand worldwide.
2.Crude oil fell to a 22-month low yesterday despite the dollar fell as Japan entered its first recession since 2001 and China's largest oil producer said demand dropped sharply
3.Oil prices remains weak yesterday as a report showed manufacturing in New York contracted in November at the fastest pace on record, raised concern that fuel demand from industry will fall sharply amid financial crisis.
On the upside:
•Stock markets may rebound after last Friday's losses.
•Some recovery after recent losses.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $55 and high $56 (Today's US economic releases, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.20PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens on early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises on early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly rises on early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recovers on early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats by late trading session.
•JPY strengthens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil retreats by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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