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Market Snapshot 19.01.09
USD
Brief:
1.Last Friday's US economic releases, -actual- US CPI -YoY-MoM- (0.1% - -0.7%), US CPI Ex-Food and energy -YoY-MoM- (1.8% - 0.0%), US Net Long-term TIC Flows -Nov- (-$21.7B), US Industrial production -Dec- (-2.0%) and University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Jan- (61.9).
2.USD fell against the euro today despite EC forecast the Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time in 10 yeas amid global recession deepens, cutting its outlook for the region.
3.USD fell against the euro last Friday as reports showed consumer prices fell 0.70% as slide in retail sales destroyed companies' pricing, spurring concerns that the economy will face deflation risk, and industrial production tumbled in the US as lower demand idled more than a quarter of factory capacity.
4.The dollar rose against yen last Friday as measures to stabilize banks reduced demand for the currencies as havens as US stocks gained on buying interest amid Bank of America posted its first loss since 1991, while received emergency funds from the government to support the acquisition of Merrill Lynch.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Speculation on stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – AUD/USD – GBP/USD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Tertiary industry index -Nov- (-0.8%), Japan Consumer confidence -Dec- (27.5), Japan Households consumer confidence -Dec- (27.9) and Japan Machine tool orders -Dec- (-67.4%).
2.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-16.6% - -8.5%), Japan Nationwide department store sales -Dec- (-9.4%), Tokyo Department store sales -Dec- (10.4%).
3.JPY strengthens against most currencies today after the EC said the Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time since the currency was introduced a 10 years ago, overshadowed rising stocks in Europe and Asia as investor speculates the US and UK government plans to spur lending will prevent the recession from worsening.
4.The yen dropped the most in a month against the euro as US stocks after US government agreed to invest $20Billion more in Bank of America and guarantee $118Billion in assets to help the lender to support the acquisition of Merrill Lynch, while measures to stabilize banks increases carry trades.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
On the downside:
•Progresses on the $825Billion stimulus plan may boost stocks.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's Japan economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – USD/JPY -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italy Industrial orders -Nov- (-3.8%), Italy Industrial sales -Dec- (-2.2%), Germany ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Jan- (42.5) and Germany ZEW Survey Current situation -Jan- (73.0).
2.EUR strengthen against most currencies today despite ECB forecast the Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time since the currency was introduced and ECB council member George Provopoulos said the scope for further interest-rate reductions is limited, suggesting that the central banks may have no plans to reduce interest rate anywhere near zero.
3.EUR strengthened against most currencies last Friday as the dollar fell after reports showed industrial production tumbled in the US as lower retail sale idled more than 25% of factory capacity and consumer prices fell 0.7% in December, spurring concerns on deflation.
4.The euro rose to a month high against the yen and remained strong against most currencies last Friday as US stocks advanced increasing measures to stabilize banks eased concern that more banks will fail.
On the upside:
•Short-covering may push the euro higher.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on further interest rate cut speculation.
•Deteriorating economies in the EU.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/GBP – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today on forecasts faltering global economic growth will drive down fuel consumption and EC said Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time in 10 years, cutting its outlook for the region.
2.Crude oil rose last Friday as the dollar fell against the euro and traders purchased contracts in an attempt to profit from higher prices in future months or contango.
3.Oil prices remained strong last Friday as global equities climbed higher after the US pledged further financial support to banks and analysts said oil may fall this week because inventories have gained as traders try to profit from price differentials.
On the upside:
•Mass purchase of crude oil contracts before contract expiry.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Ceasefire in between Israel and Hamas.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Conflict between Israel and Hamas.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around low $41 and mid $41 (USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.20PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly recover in early trading session.
•US stock markets. (Close)
•JPY slightly retreat in early trading session.
•EUR slightly retreat in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets. (Close)
•JPY slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•EUR decline in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD weaken by late trading session.
•US capital markets. (Close)
•JPY strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen by late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Last Friday's US economic releases, -actual- US CPI -YoY-MoM- (0.1% - -0.7%), US CPI Ex-Food and energy -YoY-MoM- (1.8% - 0.0%), US Net Long-term TIC Flows -Nov- (-$21.7B), US Industrial production -Dec- (-2.0%) and University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Jan- (61.9).
2.USD fell against the euro today despite EC forecast the Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time in 10 yeas amid global recession deepens, cutting its outlook for the region.
3.USD fell against the euro last Friday as reports showed consumer prices fell 0.70% as slide in retail sales destroyed companies' pricing, spurring concerns that the economy will face deflation risk, and industrial production tumbled in the US as lower demand idled more than a quarter of factory capacity.
4.The dollar rose against yen last Friday as measures to stabilize banks reduced demand for the currencies as havens as US stocks gained on buying interest amid Bank of America posted its first loss since 1991, while received emergency funds from the government to support the acquisition of Merrill Lynch.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Speculation on stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – AUD/USD – GBP/USD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Tertiary industry index -Nov- (-0.8%), Japan Consumer confidence -Dec- (27.5), Japan Households consumer confidence -Dec- (27.9) and Japan Machine tool orders -Dec- (-67.4%).
2.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-16.6% - -8.5%), Japan Nationwide department store sales -Dec- (-9.4%), Tokyo Department store sales -Dec- (10.4%).
3.JPY strengthens against most currencies today after the EC said the Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time since the currency was introduced a 10 years ago, overshadowed rising stocks in Europe and Asia as investor speculates the US and UK government plans to spur lending will prevent the recession from worsening.
4.The yen dropped the most in a month against the euro as US stocks after US government agreed to invest $20Billion more in Bank of America and guarantee $118Billion in assets to help the lender to support the acquisition of Merrill Lynch, while measures to stabilize banks increases carry trades.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
On the downside:
•Progresses on the $825Billion stimulus plan may boost stocks.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's Japan economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – USD/JPY -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italy Industrial orders -Nov- (-3.8%), Italy Industrial sales -Dec- (-2.2%), Germany ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Jan- (42.5) and Germany ZEW Survey Current situation -Jan- (73.0).
2.EUR strengthen against most currencies today despite ECB forecast the Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time since the currency was introduced and ECB council member George Provopoulos said the scope for further interest-rate reductions is limited, suggesting that the central banks may have no plans to reduce interest rate anywhere near zero.
3.EUR strengthened against most currencies last Friday as the dollar fell after reports showed industrial production tumbled in the US as lower retail sale idled more than 25% of factory capacity and consumer prices fell 0.7% in December, spurring concerns on deflation.
4.The euro rose to a month high against the yen and remained strong against most currencies last Friday as US stocks advanced increasing measures to stabilize banks eased concern that more banks will fail.
On the upside:
•Short-covering may push the euro higher.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on further interest rate cut speculation.
•Deteriorating economies in the EU.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/GBP – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today on forecasts faltering global economic growth will drive down fuel consumption and EC said Euro-zone economy will contract this year for the 1st time in 10 years, cutting its outlook for the region.
2.Crude oil rose last Friday as the dollar fell against the euro and traders purchased contracts in an attempt to profit from higher prices in future months or contango.
3.Oil prices remained strong last Friday as global equities climbed higher after the US pledged further financial support to banks and analysts said oil may fall this week because inventories have gained as traders try to profit from price differentials.
On the upside:
•Mass purchase of crude oil contracts before contract expiry.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Ceasefire in between Israel and Hamas.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Conflict between Israel and Hamas.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around low $41 and mid $41 (USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.20PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly recover in early trading session.
•US stock markets. (Close)
•JPY slightly retreat in early trading session.
•EUR slightly retreat in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets. (Close)
•JPY slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•EUR decline in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD weaken by late trading session.
•US capital markets. (Close)
•JPY strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen by late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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