UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3239 7789 | support@fxservice.com
Market Snapshot 19.12.08
USD
Brief:
1.USD strengthened against the euro today after reports showed Germany producer price fell by a record and on speculation GM and Chrysler would get US loans to stay afloat until March under a Bush administration rescue plan that may be unveiled as soon as today.
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Initial jobless claims -Dec- (554k), US Philadelphia Fed index -Dec- (-32.9) and US Leading indicators -Nov- (-0.4%).
3.USD rose from a 12-week low against the euro and 13-year high versus the yen yesterday as traders judged the greenback’s recent plunge after the Fed slashed interest rates two days ago as too fast to be sustained.
4.The dollar pared its losses and strengthened against the euro yesterday as buying interest in the greenback picks up after recent slide and US initial jobless claims dropped by 21,000 to 554,000 in the week that ended December 13, from a 26-year high the prior week.
5.Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index registered a reading of minus 32.9 this month, lower than anticipated and the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators dropped 0.4% from October, matching economists expectations.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
•Further recovery on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
-According to 12.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan All industry activity index -MoM- (-0.5%).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today despite BOJ cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.1%, increased purchases of government debt and announced plans to buy commercial paper for the first time as the deepening recession starves companies of funds.
3.The yen remained strong against most currencies today as shares in Europe and Asia declined, led by commodity producers, on concern the deteriorating global economy will sap demand for metals and oil, while investors speculates that any attempt by BOJ to control the currency will have limited success.
4.JPY fell from near 13-year high against the dollar and tumbled versus the euro yesterday as Japan’s government signaled it may intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in 4 years to stem the currency’s advance, which eroded exporter's profit and threatens to push the nation's economy deeper into recession.
5.The yen remained weak against the dollar yesterday despite US stock markets fell as investor speculates that President-elect Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will step up efforts to prevent the US recession from deepening.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as economic downfall deepens.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.'
•Further plan/measure by the US government to prop up the region's economy.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany PPI -YoY-MoM- (5.3% - -1.5%), France Business confidence indicator -Dec- (73) and Italy Industrial orders -MoM- (-5.4%).
2.EUR fell against most currencies today after Germany producer prices dropped the most since records began in 1949 in November as the cost of oil declined, while Insee forecast France’s economy will contract by 0.8%, the most since 1974 this quarter and slip into a recession early next year.
3.EUR fell from near 13-year high against the dollar yesterday after reports showed US initial jobless claim dropped from a 26-year high by 21,000 and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell less than expected in December.
4.The euro remained weak against the dollar yesterday on selling pressure, as trader judged that the euro recent rally against the dollar was overdone and too fast to sustained.
5.Selling pressure on the euro mounts as reports earlier showed Italy unemployment held at a 2-year high in the 3rd quarter and a survey showed Germany business confidence dropped to the lowest in more than 25 years in December, as the credit crisis and failing major corporate pushes the region's economy deeper into a recession.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreat on rising stocks.
•Worsening outlook on US economy.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure as investor exits position ahead of weekends.
•Deteriorating economies in the region.
To monitor:
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthened against the euro and selling pressure mounts on speculation that a deepening global recession sapped demand, countering efforts by OPEC to boost prices.
2.Crude oil fell below $36 yesterday for the first time since July 2004 as the dollar rebound from a 12-week low against the euro and on speculation the drop in demand will outpace OPEC supply cuts as the economy weakens.
3.Oil prices remained weak yesterday as US stock markets decline, prompt investor to withdrew their investments from the equities and commodities trading after US economic indicators fell in November for the 5th time in 7 month, spurring concerns that the region's economy will contract further.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around mid $41 and high $41 (US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.15PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in early trading session.
•US capital markets rise slightly in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly recover in early trading session.
•Crude oil rise slightly in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weaken slightly in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly weaken by late trading session.
•US capital markets rise in late trading session.
•JPY weaken in late trading session.
•EUR strengthen by late trading session.
•Crude oil strengthen in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.USD strengthened against the euro today after reports showed Germany producer price fell by a record and on speculation GM and Chrysler would get US loans to stay afloat until March under a Bush administration rescue plan that may be unveiled as soon as today.
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Initial jobless claims -Dec- (554k), US Philadelphia Fed index -Dec- (-32.9) and US Leading indicators -Nov- (-0.4%).
3.USD rose from a 12-week low against the euro and 13-year high versus the yen yesterday as traders judged the greenback’s recent plunge after the Fed slashed interest rates two days ago as too fast to be sustained.
4.The dollar pared its losses and strengthened against the euro yesterday as buying interest in the greenback picks up after recent slide and US initial jobless claims dropped by 21,000 to 554,000 in the week that ended December 13, from a 26-year high the prior week.
5.Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index registered a reading of minus 32.9 this month, lower than anticipated and the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators dropped 0.4% from October, matching economists expectations.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
•Further recovery on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
-According to 12.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan All industry activity index -MoM- (-0.5%).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today despite BOJ cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.1%, increased purchases of government debt and announced plans to buy commercial paper for the first time as the deepening recession starves companies of funds.
3.The yen remained strong against most currencies today as shares in Europe and Asia declined, led by commodity producers, on concern the deteriorating global economy will sap demand for metals and oil, while investors speculates that any attempt by BOJ to control the currency will have limited success.
4.JPY fell from near 13-year high against the dollar and tumbled versus the euro yesterday as Japan’s government signaled it may intervene in the foreign-exchange market for the first time in 4 years to stem the currency’s advance, which eroded exporter's profit and threatens to push the nation's economy deeper into recession.
5.The yen remained weak against the dollar yesterday despite US stock markets fell as investor speculates that President-elect Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will step up efforts to prevent the US recession from deepening.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as economic downfall deepens.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.'
•Further plan/measure by the US government to prop up the region's economy.
To monitor:
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany PPI -YoY-MoM- (5.3% - -1.5%), France Business confidence indicator -Dec- (73) and Italy Industrial orders -MoM- (-5.4%).
2.EUR fell against most currencies today after Germany producer prices dropped the most since records began in 1949 in November as the cost of oil declined, while Insee forecast France’s economy will contract by 0.8%, the most since 1974 this quarter and slip into a recession early next year.
3.EUR fell from near 13-year high against the dollar yesterday after reports showed US initial jobless claim dropped from a 26-year high by 21,000 and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell less than expected in December.
4.The euro remained weak against the dollar yesterday on selling pressure, as trader judged that the euro recent rally against the dollar was overdone and too fast to sustained.
5.Selling pressure on the euro mounts as reports earlier showed Italy unemployment held at a 2-year high in the 3rd quarter and a survey showed Germany business confidence dropped to the lowest in more than 25 years in December, as the credit crisis and failing major corporate pushes the region's economy deeper into a recession.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreat on rising stocks.
•Worsening outlook on US economy.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure as investor exits position ahead of weekends.
•Deteriorating economies in the region.
To monitor:
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthened against the euro and selling pressure mounts on speculation that a deepening global recession sapped demand, countering efforts by OPEC to boost prices.
2.Crude oil fell below $36 yesterday for the first time since July 2004 as the dollar rebound from a 12-week low against the euro and on speculation the drop in demand will outpace OPEC supply cuts as the economy weakens.
3.Oil prices remained weak yesterday as US stock markets decline, prompt investor to withdrew their investments from the equities and commodities trading after US economic indicators fell in November for the 5th time in 7 month, spurring concerns that the region's economy will contract further.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around mid $41 and high $41 (US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.15PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in early trading session.
•US capital markets rise slightly in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly recover in early trading session.
•Crude oil rise slightly in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•US stock markets weaken slightly in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly weaken by late trading session.
•US capital markets rise in late trading session.
•JPY weaken in late trading session.
•EUR strengthen by late trading session.
•Crude oil strengthen in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
|
