UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3239 7789 | support@fxservice.com
Market Snapshot 20.03.09
USD
Brief:
1.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Philadelphia Fed index -Mar- (-35.0) and US Leading indicators -Feb- (-0.4%).
2.USD strengthen against the euro today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, increasing appeal of the dollar and as some trader exit position ahead of weekend on bets the dollar decline this week is overdone.
3.USD fell to near a 2 months low and headed for a record weekly drop against the euro yesterday despite US stocks decline as selling pressure mounts since the day the Fed announced the $1Trillion purchase of bonds and on optimism that the economy will recover soon, reducing the need for the dollar as refuge.
4.The dollar remained weak yesterday despite reports showed the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.4% in February, less than forecast and Philadelphia area manufacturing index shrank by 35.0, for the 15th time in 16 months.
On the upside:
•Faster than expected economy contraction in EU and Asia region.
•Some recovery recent yesterday's losses as investors exit positions ahead of weekend.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on optimism the credit and housing markets crisis is nearing an end.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Statements/comments by Europe's officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – EUR/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY weakened against most currencies today on optimism that US stocks will rise when US trading session starts despite stocks in Europe and Asia fell, and US futures declined on speculation plans by the Fed and BOJ to buy bonds won't be able to revive the economy.
2.JPY pared its losses and is little change against the euro and the dollar yesterday as US stocks retreated, as financial shares fell on growing skepticism the Fed plan to buy bonds will revive the economy.
3.The yen remained steady yesterday despite a rally in commodities which led most energy and raw-material producer shares higher as the rally is overshadowed by a decline in financial shares which led US stocks higher for the past few days as investors exit positions on profit taking.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Stocks may retreat on selling pressure after recent gains and as investor exit position ahead of weekend.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise on buying interest as investors risk appetite grows.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•US Stocks movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY- AUD/JPY -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany PPI -YoY-MoM- (0.9% - -0.5%), France Wages -4thQ- (0.3%), Italy Unemployment rate -4thQ- (6.9%) and Euro-zone Industrial production -Jan- (-3.5%).
2.The euro weaken against the dollar today after EC President said EU leaders may agree today to boost the amount of cash for struggling countries to $68Billion from 25 billion, possible flooding the market with more euro like its counterpart has done with dollar and some traders bet the slump this week was overdone given the outlook for the US and Euro economy.
3.EUR roes to near a 2-month high versus dollar yesterday as the Fed said March 18 buy as much as $1.15Trillion of government debt and mortgage bonds, while a rally in commodities reduces demand for the dollar as safe haven.
4.The euro remained strong against most currencies but pared its gains against the yen yesterday as US stocks retreated on growing skepticism the Fed plan to buy bonds will revive the economy amid on speculation EU leaders are likely to decline to pump more money into the economy at a 2-day summit ending today.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Some retreat after recent gains.
•Deteriorating economies in Europe.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•EU officials possible measures or proposal to bolster the region's credit accessibility.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil decline today as the dollar strengthen against the euro and as analysts said crude oil may decline next week on speculation that US oil and fuel inventories will increase because the recession has curbed demand.
2.Crude oil rose yesterday and had its longest winning streak in 11 months as the dollar weakened against the euro on the Fed's plan to end recession in the region by spending $1Trillion buying back debt.
3.Oil prices remained strong yesterday after Oil Movement said OPEC will cut crude oil shipments 3.3% in the 4 weeks ending April 4 as producers seek to adhere to quotas and as US leading indicators fell less than expected in February.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Further evidence showing deepening recession in the US, Europe and China.
•Some selling pressure after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $51 and low $51 (US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.00PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•US stock markets slightly retreat in early trading session.
•JPY slightly recover in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in mid trading session.
•US stock markets slightly recover in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly recover in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in late trading session.
•US capital markets weaken by late trading session.
•JPY strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in late trading session.
•Crude oil fall in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Philadelphia Fed index -Mar- (-35.0) and US Leading indicators -Feb- (-0.4%).
2.USD strengthen against the euro today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, increasing appeal of the dollar and as some trader exit position ahead of weekend on bets the dollar decline this week is overdone.
3.USD fell to near a 2 months low and headed for a record weekly drop against the euro yesterday despite US stocks decline as selling pressure mounts since the day the Fed announced the $1Trillion purchase of bonds and on optimism that the economy will recover soon, reducing the need for the dollar as refuge.
4.The dollar remained weak yesterday despite reports showed the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.4% in February, less than forecast and Philadelphia area manufacturing index shrank by 35.0, for the 15th time in 16 months.
On the upside:
•Faster than expected economy contraction in EU and Asia region.
•Some recovery recent yesterday's losses as investors exit positions ahead of weekend.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on optimism the credit and housing markets crisis is nearing an end.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks market movement.
•Statements/comments by Europe's officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – EUR/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY weakened against most currencies today on optimism that US stocks will rise when US trading session starts despite stocks in Europe and Asia fell, and US futures declined on speculation plans by the Fed and BOJ to buy bonds won't be able to revive the economy.
2.JPY pared its losses and is little change against the euro and the dollar yesterday as US stocks retreated, as financial shares fell on growing skepticism the Fed plan to buy bonds will revive the economy.
3.The yen remained steady yesterday despite a rally in commodities which led most energy and raw-material producer shares higher as the rally is overshadowed by a decline in financial shares which led US stocks higher for the past few days as investors exit positions on profit taking.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Stocks may retreat on selling pressure after recent gains and as investor exit position ahead of weekend.
On the downside:
•Stocks may rise on buying interest as investors risk appetite grows.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•US Stocks movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY- AUD/JPY -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany PPI -YoY-MoM- (0.9% - -0.5%), France Wages -4thQ- (0.3%), Italy Unemployment rate -4thQ- (6.9%) and Euro-zone Industrial production -Jan- (-3.5%).
2.The euro weaken against the dollar today after EC President said EU leaders may agree today to boost the amount of cash for struggling countries to $68Billion from 25 billion, possible flooding the market with more euro like its counterpart has done with dollar and some traders bet the slump this week was overdone given the outlook for the US and Euro economy.
3.EUR roes to near a 2-month high versus dollar yesterday as the Fed said March 18 buy as much as $1.15Trillion of government debt and mortgage bonds, while a rally in commodities reduces demand for the dollar as safe haven.
4.The euro remained strong against most currencies but pared its gains against the yen yesterday as US stocks retreated on growing skepticism the Fed plan to buy bonds will revive the economy amid on speculation EU leaders are likely to decline to pump more money into the economy at a 2-day summit ending today.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Some retreat after recent gains.
•Deteriorating economies in Europe.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•EU officials possible measures or proposal to bolster the region's credit accessibility.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US stocks movement.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil decline today as the dollar strengthen against the euro and as analysts said crude oil may decline next week on speculation that US oil and fuel inventories will increase because the recession has curbed demand.
2.Crude oil rose yesterday and had its longest winning streak in 11 months as the dollar weakened against the euro on the Fed's plan to end recession in the region by spending $1Trillion buying back debt.
3.Oil prices remained strong yesterday after Oil Movement said OPEC will cut crude oil shipments 3.3% in the 4 weeks ending April 4 as producers seek to adhere to quotas and as US leading indicators fell less than expected in February.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Further evidence showing deepening recession in the US, Europe and China.
•Some selling pressure after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $51 and low $51 (US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.00GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.00PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in early trading session.
•US stock markets slightly retreat in early trading session.
•JPY slightly recover in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreat in mid trading session.
•US stock markets slightly recover in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weaken in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly recover in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthen in late trading session.
•US capital markets weaken by late trading session.
•JPY strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR slightly weaken in late trading session.
•Crude oil fall in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
|
