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Market Snapshot 20.04.09
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Leading indicators -Mar- (-0.2%).
2.Last Friday''s US economic releases, -actual- University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Apr- (61.9).
3.USD fell against most currencies today as economists said before reports this week that orders for US durable goods and home sales probably retreated in March after rebounding, suggesting previous month rebound is only temporary and recession in the US will deepen.
4.USD strengthen against most currencies and rose to the highest level in a month last Friday as ECB President Trichet's pledge to spur confidence failed to convince investors and as a survey showed consumer sentiment improved in March.
On the upside:
•Figures that suggest economies in Europe contracts faster than expected.
On the downside:
•The dollar may retreat after recent gains as investors exit positions on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Statements/comments by Europe's officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD -
-According to 12.30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Leading index -Feb- (75.2), Japan Coincident index -Feb- (86.0) and Japan Convenience store sales -Mar- (2.8%).
2.JPY fell against most currencies today as economists said BOJ will cut its forecasts for the economy and prices this week as the recession takes a toll on spending by companies and households.
3.JPY strengthened against most currencies last Friday amid US stocks' index traded little change despite a survey showed confidence among US consumers advanced to the highest level since last September, signaling the recession in the US is nearly over.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat on speculation the global recession is far from over.
On the downside:
•The yen may weaken on speculation Japan's government will offer more stimulus package.
•Some figures are suggesting that global economy is stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – USD/JPY – AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Producer price -YoY-MoM- (0.0% - -0.3%), Euro-zone ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Apr- (0.0%), Germany ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Apr- (2) and Germany ZEW Survey Current situation -Apr- (-90.0).
2.Last Friday's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy Industrial orders -Fed- (-1.5%), Italy Industrial sales -Feb- (-3.1%) and Euro-zone Trade balance -Feb- (-4.0B Euros).
3.EUR advance versus the dollar today as ECB President Trichet said he wouldn't exclude another very measured rate cut, though a zero interest-rate policy wouldn't be appropriate for the bank, suggesting that the bank will stop lowering interest rate after next month rate cut.
4.EUR fell against most currencies last Friday as demand for the dollar as safe haven rose as ECB President Trichet's pledge to spur confidence failed to convince investors that policy makers are making progress on a new measures to bolster the region's economy and some council members indicated they may support cutting the interest rate below 1% and pump money into the economy.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Signs of deepening recession in Euro-zone.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF - EUR/USD –
-According to 1.30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today after last Friday's advance on speculation that storage report this week will show crude oil inventories surpass the highest level in 19 years and as economists said any economic recovery in the US will be slow to develop.
2.Crude oil rose last Friday despite the dollar advanced to the highest level in a month versus the euro today as a report shows that Chinese refineries bolstered processing rates for the first time in five months,
suggesting that the government's economic stimulus measures is making an impact on fuel consumption.
3.Oil prices remained strong last week despite the dollar strengthened and US stocks ended little change as investors' exit short-positions ahead of weekend and contract expiry.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on bets that global recession will deepen.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $52 and high $52 (Today's economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 1.30GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (1.30AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in early trading session.
•US stocks market weakens in early trading session.
•JPY strengthens in early trading session.
•EUR weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreats in mid trading session.
•US stock markets slightly recover in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD advance late trading session.
•US capital markets weakens in late trading session.
•JPY strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Leading indicators -Mar- (-0.2%).
2.Last Friday''s US economic releases, -actual- University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Apr- (61.9).
3.USD fell against most currencies today as economists said before reports this week that orders for US durable goods and home sales probably retreated in March after rebounding, suggesting previous month rebound is only temporary and recession in the US will deepen.
4.USD strengthen against most currencies and rose to the highest level in a month last Friday as ECB President Trichet's pledge to spur confidence failed to convince investors and as a survey showed consumer sentiment improved in March.
On the upside:
•Figures that suggest economies in Europe contracts faster than expected.
On the downside:
•The dollar may retreat after recent gains as investors exit positions on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Statements/comments by Europe's officials.
•Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/CAD -
-According to 12.30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Leading index -Feb- (75.2), Japan Coincident index -Feb- (86.0) and Japan Convenience store sales -Mar- (2.8%).
2.JPY fell against most currencies today as economists said BOJ will cut its forecasts for the economy and prices this week as the recession takes a toll on spending by companies and households.
3.JPY strengthened against most currencies last Friday amid US stocks' index traded little change despite a survey showed confidence among US consumers advanced to the highest level since last September, signaling the recession in the US is nearly over.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat on speculation the global recession is far from over.
On the downside:
•The yen may weaken on speculation Japan's government will offer more stimulus package.
•Some figures are suggesting that global economy is stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – USD/JPY – AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Producer price -YoY-MoM- (0.0% - -0.3%), Euro-zone ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Apr- (0.0%), Germany ZEW Survey Economic sentiment -Apr- (2) and Germany ZEW Survey Current situation -Apr- (-90.0).
2.Last Friday's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Italy Industrial orders -Fed- (-1.5%), Italy Industrial sales -Feb- (-3.1%) and Euro-zone Trade balance -Feb- (-4.0B Euros).
3.EUR advance versus the dollar today as ECB President Trichet said he wouldn't exclude another very measured rate cut, though a zero interest-rate policy wouldn't be appropriate for the bank, suggesting that the bank will stop lowering interest rate after next month rate cut.
4.EUR fell against most currencies last Friday as demand for the dollar as safe haven rose as ECB President Trichet's pledge to spur confidence failed to convince investors that policy makers are making progress on a new measures to bolster the region's economy and some council members indicated they may support cutting the interest rate below 1% and pump money into the economy.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Signs of deepening recession in Euro-zone.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF - EUR/USD –
-According to 1.30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today after last Friday's advance on speculation that storage report this week will show crude oil inventories surpass the highest level in 19 years and as economists said any economic recovery in the US will be slow to develop.
2.Crude oil rose last Friday despite the dollar advanced to the highest level in a month versus the euro today as a report shows that Chinese refineries bolstered processing rates for the first time in five months,
suggesting that the government's economic stimulus measures is making an impact on fuel consumption.
3.Oil prices remained strong last week despite the dollar strengthened and US stocks ended little change as investors' exit short-positions ahead of weekend and contract expiry.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on bets that global recession will deepen.
To monitor:
•Speculation on this week's US economic releases.
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $52 and high $52 (Today's economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 1.30GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (1.30AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in early trading session.
•US stocks market weakens in early trading session.
•JPY strengthens in early trading session.
•EUR weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreats in mid trading session.
•US stock markets slightly recover in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly recover in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD advance late trading session.
•US capital markets weakens in late trading session.
•JPY strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR weakens in late trading session.
•Crude oil retreats in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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