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Market Snapshot 23.12.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US GDP -3rdF- (-0.5%), US Personal consumption -3rdQ- (-3.7%), US Core personal consumption expenditure -3rdQ- (2.6%), University of Michigan consumer confidence -Dec- (58.8), US New home sales -Nov- (418k), US Existing home sales -Nov- (4.92M), US House price index -MoM- (-1.4%), US Richmond Fed manufacturing index -Dec- (-40) and US ABC Consumer confidence -Dec21- (-44).
2.USD fell against the euro today as economists said before a report today that sales of new and existing homes in the US fell in November to a 9-year low as falling consumer confidence dissuaded potential buyers.
3.USD pared its losses against the euro and strengthened against the yen yesterday as US stock markets fell and a record plunge in Japan's exports last month signaled the region's economy was falling deeper into a recession.
4.The dollar pared its losses and remained steady versus the euro and the pound yesterday amid reports earlier showed Germany import price fell in November by the most in almost 5 years and France producer price dropped more than expected in November, paved ways for more rate cuts by the region's central bank.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
•Recovery on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
-According to 12.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic release, -forecast- Japan Merchandise trade balance -Nov- (217.3B Yen), Japan Adjusted Merchandise trade balance -Nov- (218.4B Yen), Japan BSI Large all industry -4thQ- (-11.4), Japan BSI Large manufacturing -4thQ- (-12.0).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today amid European stocks rose led by a rally in telecommunication and health care companies, while US index futures rose despite analysts said Toyota Motor may cut its North American payroll for the first time.
3.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday despite US stocks fell, as a deteriorating outlook for corporate earnings and real estate offset expectations that government efforts to revive the economy will succeed.
4.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday after Toyota Motor forecast its first operating loss in 71 years and Japan's exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, signaling more factory shutdowns and job cuts are likely as the recession deepens.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as economic downfall deepens.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
•Further plan/measure by the US government to prop up the region's economy.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Today's Japan economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Consumer spending -YoY-MoM- (1.0% - 0..%), Italy Consumer confidence index -Dec- (99.6) and Euro-zone Current account -Oct- (6.4B Euros), Italy Retail sales -Oct- (-0.3%).
2.EUR strengthened against the dollar today as French consumer spending unexpectedly rebounded in November as stimulus measures and declining energy prices cushioned the impact of deteriorating economic growth in the region, while Italian consumer confidence slides further in December to the lowest in 4 months on concern that the recession will deepens.
3.EUR pared its gains against the dollar today yesterday as US stocks fell on selling pressure as investor speculates that a deteriorating outlook for corporate earnings and real estate overshadowed expectations that government efforts to revive the economy will succeed.
4.The euro remained on the upside against the dollar and versus the yen yesterday despite reports earlier showed showed Germany import prices fell in November by the most in almost 5 years on energy products and France producer price dropped more than expected in November, adding to evidence that cost pressures in the Euro-zone are easing and paved way for ECB to slash rate further.
On the upside:
•Worsening outlook on US economy.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on interest rate cut speculation.
•Deteriorating economies in the EU region.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil slightly rises today as the dollar fell against the euro amid investor speculated that a storage report tomorrow will show US crude stockpiles increased by 1Million barrels.
2.Crude oil fell more than $2 yesterday as the dollar pared its losses against the euro and on speculation OPEC will be unable to boost prices as the global recession curbs demand faster than the group can cut production.
3.Oil prices remained weak as Japan's exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, while a report earlier showed Japanese crude- oil imports tumbled 17% in November, spurring concerns that fuel demand in the region will slide further as recession deepens.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around high $39 and low $40 (Today's US economic releases, US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.15PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly recover in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets rise slightly in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weaken following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly retreat in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly weaken in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly retreat in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthen on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD strengthen by late trading session.
•US capital markets weaken in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR weaken by late trading session.
•Crude oil strengthen in late trading session.
Happy Christmas Eve!
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US GDP -3rdF- (-0.5%), US Personal consumption -3rdQ- (-3.7%), US Core personal consumption expenditure -3rdQ- (2.6%), University of Michigan consumer confidence -Dec- (58.8), US New home sales -Nov- (418k), US Existing home sales -Nov- (4.92M), US House price index -MoM- (-1.4%), US Richmond Fed manufacturing index -Dec- (-40) and US ABC Consumer confidence -Dec21- (-44).
2.USD fell against the euro today as economists said before a report today that sales of new and existing homes in the US fell in November to a 9-year low as falling consumer confidence dissuaded potential buyers.
3.USD pared its losses against the euro and strengthened against the yen yesterday as US stock markets fell and a record plunge in Japan's exports last month signaled the region's economy was falling deeper into a recession.
4.The dollar pared its losses and remained steady versus the euro and the pound yesterday amid reports earlier showed Germany import price fell in November by the most in almost 5 years and France producer price dropped more than expected in November, paved ways for more rate cuts by the region's central bank.
On the upside:
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
•Recovery on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar might further retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
-According to 12.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic release, -forecast- Japan Merchandise trade balance -Nov- (217.3B Yen), Japan Adjusted Merchandise trade balance -Nov- (218.4B Yen), Japan BSI Large all industry -4thQ- (-11.4), Japan BSI Large manufacturing -4thQ- (-12.0).
2.JPY strengthened against most currencies today amid European stocks rose led by a rally in telecommunication and health care companies, while US index futures rose despite analysts said Toyota Motor may cut its North American payroll for the first time.
3.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday despite US stocks fell, as a deteriorating outlook for corporate earnings and real estate offset expectations that government efforts to revive the economy will succeed.
4.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday after Toyota Motor forecast its first operating loss in 71 years and Japan's exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, signaling more factory shutdowns and job cuts are likely as the recession deepens.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as economic downfall deepens.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
•Further plan/measure by the US government to prop up the region's economy.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Today's Japan economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US indexes movement.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Consumer spending -YoY-MoM- (1.0% - 0..%), Italy Consumer confidence index -Dec- (99.6) and Euro-zone Current account -Oct- (6.4B Euros), Italy Retail sales -Oct- (-0.3%).
2.EUR strengthened against the dollar today as French consumer spending unexpectedly rebounded in November as stimulus measures and declining energy prices cushioned the impact of deteriorating economic growth in the region, while Italian consumer confidence slides further in December to the lowest in 4 months on concern that the recession will deepens.
3.EUR pared its gains against the dollar today yesterday as US stocks fell on selling pressure as investor speculates that a deteriorating outlook for corporate earnings and real estate overshadowed expectations that government efforts to revive the economy will succeed.
4.The euro remained on the upside against the dollar and versus the yen yesterday despite reports earlier showed showed Germany import prices fell in November by the most in almost 5 years on energy products and France producer price dropped more than expected in November, adding to evidence that cost pressures in the Euro-zone are easing and paved way for ECB to slash rate further.
On the upside:
•Worsening outlook on US economy.
On the downside:
•Selling pressure on interest rate cut speculation.
•Deteriorating economies in the EU region.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed/Treasury members' comments/statements.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD -
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil slightly rises today as the dollar fell against the euro amid investor speculated that a storage report tomorrow will show US crude stockpiles increased by 1Million barrels.
2.Crude oil fell more than $2 yesterday as the dollar pared its losses against the euro and on speculation OPEC will be unable to boost prices as the global recession curbs demand faster than the group can cut production.
3.Oil prices remained weak as Japan's exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, while a report earlier showed Japanese crude- oil imports tumbled 17% in November, spurring concerns that fuel demand in the region will slide further as recession deepens.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•US indexes movement.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•Officials from non-OPEC major oil producing nations comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Long” Crude oil around high $39 and low $40 (Today's US economic releases, US indexes movement and USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.15GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.15PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly recover in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets rise slightly in early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weaken following capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly retreat in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weaken in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly weaken in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US stock markets slightly retreat in mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthen in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly strengthen on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD strengthen by late trading session.
•US capital markets weaken in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen in late trading session.
•EUR weaken by late trading session.
•Crude oil strengthen in late trading session.
Happy Christmas Eve!
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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