Market Snapshot 25.07.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today\\'s US economic releases, -forecast- US Durable goods orders -June- (-0.3%), US Durables ex-transportation -June- (-0.2%), University of Michigan consumer confidence index -July- (56.3) and US New home sales -June- (503k).
2.Yesterday\\'s US economic releases, -actual- US Initial jobless claims -July- (406k) and US Existing home sales -June- (4.86M).
3.The dollar weakened today after ECB council member Klaus Liebscher said policy makers have room to raise interest rates for a second time this year and before government reports forecast to show US durable goods orders and new home sales dropped in June.
4.USD strengthens against the euro yesterday amid the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose last week to 406k, the highest in almost 4 months.
5.USD remains steady even after a report showed existing home sales dropped 2.6% to a lower than forecast 4.86Million annual rate in June, the lowest level in atleast 10 years.
6.The euro fell against the dollar yesterday yesterday after report shows Germany, France and Italy business confidence fell as higher fuel cost, appreciating euro reduces demands from US and Japan for Euro-zone made goods.
On the upside:
•Further recovery on euro weakness.
•Cross currency weakness. (EUR, JPY and NZD)
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation on a possible economic slowdown in US.
•Some selling pressure after recent gains as investors exit position on profit taking.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•Senate decision on Fannie and Freddie bill.
•Fed members outlook and statements/comments.
•News/statements related to Major institution.
•Major financial companies\\' earnings report.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: – AUD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY strengthens against most currencies today as stock markets in Asia and Europe fell after yesterday\\'s financial shares led US stock markets decline raised concerns banks and brokerages may report more credit related losses.
2.The yen remains strong against most currencies today as government report shows Japan\\'s consumer price rose 1.9% at June, the fastest pace in a decade on rising commodities cost amid economic slowdown.
3.Yesterday\\'s Japan economic releases, -actual- Tokyo CPI -YoY- (1.6%), Tokyo CPI Ex-food and energy (0.3%), National CPI -YoY- (2.0%) and National CPI Ex-food and energy -YoY- (0.1%).
4.JPY strengthens yesterday as US stocks tumbled on speculation the housing slump will cost banks and brokerages more losses and reports shows initial jobless claims rose more than expected while separate report showed home sales slid more than forecast
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•European markets retreat on weaker growth outlook.
•US stock might slightly retreat today on selling pressure as investors exits position ahead of weekends.
On the downside:
•US stocks rallies on positive news.
•Cross currency strength. (USD and GBP)
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•Fed members outlook and statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Major corporate fiscal reports.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY - EUR/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY - USD/JPY – AUD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today\\'s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Euro-zone M3 -YoY- (9.9%).
2.EUR strengthens against the dollar after ECB council member Klaus Liebscher said policy makers have room to raise interest rates for a second time this year even as economic growth falters.
3.EUR weakens against the dollar yesterday amid reports showed US initial jobless claims rose more than expected in June and to the the highest in almost 4 months.
4.EUR weakens against the dollar earlier yesterday as reports shows Germany, Italy and France business confidence fell as higher oil prices, a stronger euro and a global slowdown sapped corporate earnings.
5.EUR remains weak against most currencies yesterday as Germany, Italy and France business confidence fell and European manufacturing and services shrank, increasing the risk of a recession across the euro region and reduced speculation that the ECB will raise interest rates again this year.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY and NZD).
•Some recovery afte recent losses.
On the downside:
•Further retreat on investors selling pressure amid outlook on Euro-zone economic growth weakens.
•Cross currency strength. (GBP and USD)
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•Major corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•ECB members\\' statements/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD – EUR/GBP -
Long: - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/GBP – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose as the dollar fell, bolstering the appeal of commodities, and as supply concerns persisted in Iran and Nigeria.
2.Analysts said crude oil may fall next week as Saudi Arabia increases oil output to lower prices and US fuel supplies climb as slowing economic growth curbs consumption.
3.Crude oil rose amid US dollar strengthens amid most data showed demand in the US and Japan weakens as high fuel cost reduces consumption.
4.Crude oil rose yesterday on short-covering as investors exits position on profit taking ahead of weekends amid threats from Tropical storm dolly diminished.
On the upside:
•Atlantic ocean hurricanes activities.
•The dollar might experience light retreat on profit taking as investors exits position ahead of weekends.
On the downside:
•Dollar strengthens.
•Further selling pressure amid weaker outlook on global economy.
To monitor:
•Today\\'s US economic releases. (Important)
•Mid-late trading session volatility.
•US indexes movement.
•USD movement.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities and weather report. (Sensitive)
•News related to Nigeria/Brazil/Mexico oilfields and/or workers strike. (Sensitive)
•Geopolitical risk.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•OPEC members\\' comments/statements. (Sensitive)
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $125 and high $125 (Today\\'s US economic releases, Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.20PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD strengthens on early trading session.
•US capital market recovers on early trading session.
•JPY retreats following US indexes movement.
•EUR retreats on early trading session.
•Crude oil weakens on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•JPY remains or slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens by mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•US capital remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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