Market snapshot 25.08.09
USD
Brief:
1. Today’s US economic releases, -forecast- US S&P Case-shiller composite 20 –June- (-16.4%), US Consumer confidence –Aug- (47.9), US Richmond Fed manufacturing index –Aug- (16), US House price index –June- (0.4%) and ABC Consumer confidence –Aug23- (-45).
2. Yesterday’s US economic releases, -actual- US Chicago Fed activity index –July- (-0.74).
3. USD strengthened today as renewed concern the US financial crisis will linger sent Asian shares lower and revived demand for the dollar as safe haven.
4. The dollar remained strong today as economists said home values in 20 US metropolitan areas probably decreased at a slower pace and consumer confidence climbed, signs the recession is easing as the real- estate crisis eases.
On the upside:
•Stocks may slightly rises on buying interest as figures may show US economy is recovering.
•Some recovery after recent retreat.
On the downside:
•The dollar may weaken if today’s consumer confidence figure are weaker than expected.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD – USD/CHF –
Long: USD/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/USD – USD/CAD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 9:25GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1. Today’s Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Merchandise trade balance total –July- (385.0B), Japan Adjusted Merchandise trade balance –July- (297.9B), Japan Merchandise Trade exports –July- (-38.4) and Japan Merchandise trade imports –July- (-42.5).
2. JPY rose the most in a week against the euro today as SunTrust Banks said lenders face more credit losses renewed concern the US financial crisis will linger, sent Asian shares lower and revived demand for safer assets.
On the upside:
•US stocks may slightly retreat if today’s economic figures are lower than expected.
On the downside:
•Stocks may advance further on buying interest if there’s further sign of the recession is ending.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•US Indexes movement.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – GBP/JPY -
-According to 9:25GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-one economic releases, -actual- Germany GDP –QoQ- (0.3%), Germany Private consumption -2ndQ- (0.7%), Germany Domestic demand -2ndQ- (-1.3%), Germany Imports -2ndQ- (-5.1%) and Germany Exports -2ndQ- (-1.2%). -Forecast- Germany Import price index –YoY-MoM- (-12.5% - -0.8%).
2. Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany IFO Expectation –Aug- (92.0), Germany IFO Business climate –Aug- (89.0) and Germany IFO Current assessment –Aug- (86.0).
3. EUR fell against most currencies today as yesterday SunTrust Banks said lenders face more credit losses, renewed concern the US financial crisis will linger, sent Asian shares lower and revived demand for the dollar as safe haven.
4. The euro remained weak today as economists said home values in 20 US metropolitan areas probably decreased at a slower pace and consumer confidence climbed, signs the recession in US is easing.
On the upside:
• US stocks may retreat on selling pressure if today’s economic release is worse than expected.
On the downside:
• If figure release is as expected and US stocks only advance slightly.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•Major corporate earnings report.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Long: EUR/JPY– EUR/USD – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 11:10GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1. Crude oil dropped from a 10-month high today as the dollar strengthen and on concerns that China may tighten lending and more US loans may default raised concern over global economy recovery.
2. Oil prices remained weakens today despite stocks in Europe rose as some investors exit position on profit taking after recent gains, and as advancing dollar reduces appeal of commodities as inflation hedge.
On the upside:
•Stocks may advance further on buying interest.
On the downside:
•The dollar may strengthen as stocks may retreat on profit taking.
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today’s US economic releases. (Sensitive)
•Hurricane season.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $74 and mid $74 (Today’s US economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 11:!0GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11:10AM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly rises in early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in early trading session.
14PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in mid trading session.
•US stock markets rose in mid trading session.
•JPY weakens in mid trading session.
•EUR weakens in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises in mid trading session.
18PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD slightly retreats in late trading session.
•US capital markets slightly weakens in late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in late trading session.
•EUR slightly recovers in late trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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