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Market Snapshot 25.11.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US GDP -QoQ- (-0.5%), US Personal consumption -3rdQ- (-3.1%), US Core personal consumption -QoQ- (2.9%), US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 -YoY- (-16.9%), US Richmond Fed manufacturing index -Nov- (-26), US Consumer confidence -Nov- (-38) and US House price index -MoM- (-0.7%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Existing home sales -MoM- (-3.1%).
3.USD strengthen today before US reports today that economists say will show a recession is deepening in the world's largest economy, prompting investors to cut holdings of higher-yielding assets and seeks haven from uncertain markets.
4.USD yesterday had its biggest 2-day loss against the euro this month as Citigroup Inc received $306Billion of US government guarantees for its troubled assets, reducing demand for the greenback as a haven.
5.The dollar remained weak against most currencies yesterday as US stocks posted the biggest 2-day rally since 1987 after the government guaranteed $306Billion of troubled Citigroup Inc assets and lawmakers pledged to pass another economic stimulus package.
On the upside:
•Declining stocks markets and other central banks rate cut speculation.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Stock markets recovery on government efforts.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD - USD/JPY – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD - AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.10GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY strengthens against most currencies today despite US index futures and European stocks rose as speculation of more government measures to shore up the financial system offset a retreat in mining companies and insurers.
2.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Corporate service price -YoY- (-1.4%) and Japan Supermarket sales -YoY- (-1.6%).
3.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday as US stocks posted the biggest 2-day rally since 1987, led by Citibank share which lost 60% of its market value last week, rebounded 58% after the government guaranteed $306Billion of troubled Citigroup Inc assets, while lawmakers pledged to pass another economic stimulus package.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as recession concern grows.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.10GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany GDP -QoQ- (-0.5%), Germany Private consumption -3rdQ- (0.3%), Germany Imports -3rdQ- (3.8%), Germany Exports -3rdQ- (-0.4%), Germany GFK Consumer confidence survey -Dec- (2.2), France Business confidence indicator -Nov- (80) and Italy Consumer confidence index -Nov- (100.4).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (No forecast figures), Germany Import price -YoY-MoM- (5.0% - -1.4%), France Consumer confidence indicator -Nov- (-49) and Italy Business confidence -Nov- (76.0).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today as France business confidence fell to the lowest in more than 15 years and Italian consumers grew more pessimistic as the Euro-zone economy slipped into a recession, threatening to choke exports and employment.
4.EUR yesterday had its biggest 2-day gain against the dollar this month as Citigroup Inc received $306Billion of US government guarantees for its troubled assets, reducing demand for the greenback as a haven amid investors risk appetite grows.
5.The euro remained strong against most currencies yesterday as US stock markets rose and a report showed home resales in the US dropped in October and prices fell by the most on record, signaling a deepening housing recession going into 2009.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreats on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Stock markets might retreat after recent gains.
•ECB members comments/statements that reinforced speculations for further rate reduction.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.10GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today, paring yesterday's 9% gain, on concern the rally will prove unsustainable as fuel demand declines and analysts said a US government report tomorrow will probably show that stockpiles of crude increased for a 9th week.
2.Crude oil climbed more than $4 yesterday, following European and US equities higher, after the government guaranteed $306Billion of Citigroup assets, boosted investor confidence that steps taken by government around the world will help pull global economy out from a major meltdown.
3.OPEC president Chakib Khelil said the group has given up $700Billion in oil revenues by accepting an oil price lower than its $85 a barrel target, helping to counter the global economic crisis, but added that It's too early to say whether the OPEC will need to make another cut in production on this week's meeting.
On the upside:
•Buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $53 and high $53 (Today's US economic releases, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.10GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.10PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets retreats on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly retreats on early trading session.
•Crude oil weakens on early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets slightly rises on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly rise by late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats by late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil fell by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US GDP -QoQ- (-0.5%), US Personal consumption -3rdQ- (-3.1%), US Core personal consumption -QoQ- (2.9%), US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 -YoY- (-16.9%), US Richmond Fed manufacturing index -Nov- (-26), US Consumer confidence -Nov- (-38) and US House price index -MoM- (-0.7%).
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Existing home sales -MoM- (-3.1%).
3.USD strengthen today before US reports today that economists say will show a recession is deepening in the world's largest economy, prompting investors to cut holdings of higher-yielding assets and seeks haven from uncertain markets.
4.USD yesterday had its biggest 2-day loss against the euro this month as Citigroup Inc received $306Billion of US government guarantees for its troubled assets, reducing demand for the greenback as a haven.
5.The dollar remained weak against most currencies yesterday as US stocks posted the biggest 2-day rally since 1987 after the government guaranteed $306Billion of troubled Citigroup Inc assets and lawmakers pledged to pass another economic stimulus package.
On the upside:
•Declining stocks markets and other central banks rate cut speculation.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Stock markets recovery on government efforts.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD - USD/JPY – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD - AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.10GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY strengthens against most currencies today despite US index futures and European stocks rose as speculation of more government measures to shore up the financial system offset a retreat in mining companies and insurers.
2.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Corporate service price -YoY- (-1.4%) and Japan Supermarket sales -YoY- (-1.6%).
3.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday as US stocks posted the biggest 2-day rally since 1987, led by Citibank share which lost 60% of its market value last week, rebounded 58% after the government guaranteed $306Billion of troubled Citigroup Inc assets, while lawmakers pledged to pass another economic stimulus package.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as recession concern grows.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal results.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.10GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany GDP -QoQ- (-0.5%), Germany Private consumption -3rdQ- (0.3%), Germany Imports -3rdQ- (3.8%), Germany Exports -3rdQ- (-0.4%), Germany GFK Consumer confidence survey -Dec- (2.2), France Business confidence indicator -Nov- (80) and Italy Consumer confidence index -Nov- (100.4).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (No forecast figures), Germany Import price -YoY-MoM- (5.0% - -1.4%), France Consumer confidence indicator -Nov- (-49) and Italy Business confidence -Nov- (76.0).
3.EUR fell against the dollar today as France business confidence fell to the lowest in more than 15 years and Italian consumers grew more pessimistic as the Euro-zone economy slipped into a recession, threatening to choke exports and employment.
4.EUR yesterday had its biggest 2-day gain against the dollar this month as Citigroup Inc received $306Billion of US government guarantees for its troubled assets, reducing demand for the greenback as a haven amid investors risk appetite grows.
5.The euro remained strong against most currencies yesterday as US stock markets rose and a report showed home resales in the US dropped in October and prices fell by the most on record, signaling a deepening housing recession going into 2009.
On the upside:
•Dollar retreats on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Stock markets might retreat after recent gains.
•ECB members comments/statements that reinforced speculations for further rate reduction.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.10GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today, paring yesterday's 9% gain, on concern the rally will prove unsustainable as fuel demand declines and analysts said a US government report tomorrow will probably show that stockpiles of crude increased for a 9th week.
2.Crude oil climbed more than $4 yesterday, following European and US equities higher, after the government guaranteed $306Billion of Citigroup assets, boosted investor confidence that steps taken by government around the world will help pull global economy out from a major meltdown.
3.OPEC president Chakib Khelil said the group has given up $700Billion in oil revenues by accepting an oil price lower than its $85 a barrel target, helping to counter the global economic crisis, but added that It's too early to say whether the OPEC will need to make another cut in production on this week's meeting.
On the upside:
•Buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Fed members' statements/comments.
•US indexes movement
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $53 and high $53 (Today's US economic releases, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.10GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.10PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets retreats on early trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly strengthens following US indexes movement.
•EUR slightly retreats on early trading session.
•Crude oil weakens on early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•US capital markets slightly rises on mid trading session. (Depends on economic releases)
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly rise by late trading session.
•US capital markets retreats by late trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil fell by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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