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Market Snapshot 26.05.08
USD
Brief:
1.The pace of consumer spending in the US probably slowed as property values and confidence sank, economists said before reports this week.
2.Last Friday’s US economic releases, -actual- US existing home sales –Apr- (4.89M).
3.USD weakens against the euro last Friday after a report showed Italy economy grew 0.4% in first quarter amid a slump in consumer spending.
4.USD extended its decline against the euro last Friday after an industry report showed US existing home sales felled in April.
5.Fed economist said the central bank’s auctions of cash loans to commercial banks have had a strong effect on reducing their borrowing costs, while new lending programs for securities firms may be less potent.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY)
On the downside:
•EUR might strengthen on speculation that the ECB will threaten to raise its interest rate after recent economic data showed no slowdown on inflation.
•News/statements related to Major institution..
•Fed member’s comments/statements.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD –
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD - USD/JPY – AUD/USD – GBP/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 13.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY is little change amid Asian stock markets felled the most in 6 weeks following last week’s US indexes decline.
2.JPY strengthens against most currencies last Friday as US stock markets dropped, led by automakers.
3.US indexes extended its decline as investor’s exits position ahead of weekends and Monday’s Memorial Day where US stock markets remain close.
4.JPY strengthens against the dollar last Friday as stock markets falls after an industry report showed US home sales felled in April.
On the upside:
•Many analysts fear that commodities rally is near an end.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (AUD and NZD)
•Weaker outlook on Japan’s economic growth.
To monitor: (Memorial Day holiday)
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Major corporate earnings reports.
•News related to major institution.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY -
-According to 13.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany GDP –QoQ- (1.5%), Germany Private consumption -1st Q- (0.4%), Germany Capital investment (2.0%), Germany Imports (3.5%), Germany Exports (2.2%), Germany GFK Consumer confidence survey –Jun- (5.7), France Business confidence indicator –May- (105.0), France Production outlook indicator –May- (-10.0) and Italy Business confidence (86.9).
2.EUR strengthens against the dollar last Friday after a report showed Italy economy grew in the first quarter amid a slump in consumer spending.
3.EUR extended its rally versus the dollar last Friday after an industry report showed US existing home sales felled in April.
4.European industrial orders felled 1.0% in March, according to a report last week, hurt by the euro’s gains, higher oil prices and a cooling US economy.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY)
On the downside:
•Possible a light retreat against the dollar on selling pressure.
•Cross currency strength. (NZD and AUD)
•Weaker euro-zone economic growth outlook.
To monitor:
•ECB member’s statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Memorial Day holiday)
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD – EUR/GBP –
Long: - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/AUD – EUR/JPY – EUR/GBP- EUR/NZD -
-According to 13.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose today after StatoilHydro ASA said last weekend that daily output from three North Sea platforms may be reduced by about 138,000 barrels for several days after an oil leak and oil production in Mexico for April fell the most in more than 12 years as flows from its largest field declined.
2.Crude oil extended its rise today as militant attacks in Nigeria increased the potential for more supply disruptions and OPEC President Chakib Khelil said crude oil prices will keep on rising because of the falling value of the US dollar.
3.Crude oil should be little change on today’s US trading session as there will be no floor trading in New York because of the Memorial Day holiday.
4.Crude oil rose more than $1 last Friday as the dollar declined against the euro prompting investors to buy commodities as an inflation hedge.
5.Crude oil rose last week after storage report showed crude oil inventories unexpectedly felled and Accuweather forecast that the 2008 hurricane season may be more active than usual, threatening oil platforms and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest as dollar remains weak.
On the downside:
•Some selling pressure as investors exits position before floor trading resumes.
To monitor: (Memorial Day holiday)
•USD movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $133 and high $133 (USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 13.15GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly recovers on early trading session.
•US capital market rises on early trading session. (Depends on meeting minutes)
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly retreats on early trading session.
•Crude oil falls on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets surge during mid trading session. (Depends on meeting minutes)
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises by mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls further by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Brief:
1.The pace of consumer spending in the US probably slowed as property values and confidence sank, economists said before reports this week.
2.Last Friday’s US economic releases, -actual- US existing home sales –Apr- (4.89M).
3.USD weakens against the euro last Friday after a report showed Italy economy grew 0.4% in first quarter amid a slump in consumer spending.
4.USD extended its decline against the euro last Friday after an industry report showed US existing home sales felled in April.
5.Fed economist said the central bank’s auctions of cash loans to commercial banks have had a strong effect on reducing their borrowing costs, while new lending programs for securities firms may be less potent.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY)
On the downside:
•EUR might strengthen on speculation that the ECB will threaten to raise its interest rate after recent economic data showed no slowdown on inflation.
To monitor: (Memorial Day holiday)
•Cross currency news.•News/statements related to Major institution..
•Fed member’s comments/statements.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD –
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD - USD/JPY – AUD/USD – GBP/USD – NZD/USD
-According to 13.15GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.JPY is little change amid Asian stock markets felled the most in 6 weeks following last week’s US indexes decline.
2.JPY strengthens against most currencies last Friday as US stock markets dropped, led by automakers.
3.US indexes extended its decline as investor’s exits position ahead of weekends and Monday’s Memorial Day where US stock markets remain close.
4.JPY strengthens against the dollar last Friday as stock markets falls after an industry report showed US home sales felled in April.
On the upside:
•Many analysts fear that commodities rally is near an end.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (AUD and NZD)
•Weaker outlook on Japan’s economic growth.
To monitor: (Memorial Day holiday)
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases.
•Major corporate earnings reports.
•News related to major institution.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY -
-According to 13.15GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany GDP –QoQ- (1.5%), Germany Private consumption -1st Q- (0.4%), Germany Capital investment (2.0%), Germany Imports (3.5%), Germany Exports (2.2%), Germany GFK Consumer confidence survey –Jun- (5.7), France Business confidence indicator –May- (105.0), France Production outlook indicator –May- (-10.0) and Italy Business confidence (86.9).
2.EUR strengthens against the dollar last Friday after a report showed Italy economy grew in the first quarter amid a slump in consumer spending.
3.EUR extended its rally versus the dollar last Friday after an industry report showed US existing home sales felled in April.
4.European industrial orders felled 1.0% in March, according to a report last week, hurt by the euro’s gains, higher oil prices and a cooling US economy.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY)
On the downside:
•Possible a light retreat against the dollar on selling pressure.
•Cross currency strength. (NZD and AUD)
•Weaker euro-zone economic growth outlook.
To monitor:
•ECB member’s statements/comments.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Memorial Day holiday)
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD – EUR/GBP –
Long: - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/AUD – EUR/JPY – EUR/GBP- EUR/NZD -
-According to 13.15GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil rose today after StatoilHydro ASA said last weekend that daily output from three North Sea platforms may be reduced by about 138,000 barrels for several days after an oil leak and oil production in Mexico for April fell the most in more than 12 years as flows from its largest field declined.
2.Crude oil extended its rise today as militant attacks in Nigeria increased the potential for more supply disruptions and OPEC President Chakib Khelil said crude oil prices will keep on rising because of the falling value of the US dollar.
3.Crude oil should be little change on today’s US trading session as there will be no floor trading in New York because of the Memorial Day holiday.
4.Crude oil rose more than $1 last Friday as the dollar declined against the euro prompting investors to buy commodities as an inflation hedge.
5.Crude oil rose last week after storage report showed crude oil inventories unexpectedly felled and Accuweather forecast that the 2008 hurricane season may be more active than usual, threatening oil platforms and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the upside:
•Some buying interest as dollar remains weak.
On the downside:
•Some selling pressure as investors exits position before floor trading resumes.
To monitor: (Memorial Day holiday)
•USD movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around low $133 and high $133 (USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 13.15GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly recovers on early trading session.
•US capital market rises on early trading session. (Depends on meeting minutes)
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR slightly retreats on early trading session.
•Crude oil falls on early trading session. (Depends on storage report)
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets surge during mid trading session. (Depends on meeting minutes)
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rises by mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises by late trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls further by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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