UK Tel. +44 (0) 20 3239 7789 | support@fxservice.com
Market Snapshot 27.11.08
USD
Brief:
1.USD fell against most currencies today as stock markets in Europe and Asia rose, reduces appeal of the dollar as haven amid investors risk appetite grows, on speculation that world government efforts to shore up banks and the economy will support profits.
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Durable goods orders -Oct- (-6.2%), US Durable Ex-transportation -Oct- (-4.4%), US Personal income -Oct- (0.3%), US Personal spending -Oct- (-1.0%), US Personal consumption deflator -YoY- (3.2%), US Core personal consumption expenditure -YoY-MoM- (2.1% - 0.0%), Initial jobless claims -Nov22- (529k), Chicago PMI -Nov- (33.8), University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Nov- (55.3) and US New home sales -MoM- (-5.3%).
3.USD gained versus the euro yesterday despite US stock markets rallied as declines in US consumer spending, durable goods orders and new home sales led investors to buy the greenback as haven.
4.The dollar remained strong yesterday as a report showed Americans cut spending by 1% in October, the biggest drop since the last recession in 2001, and a separate report showed orders for durable goods slumped twice as much as forecast as domestic and foreign demand dried up.
On the upside:
•Declining stocks markets and other central banks rate cut speculation.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Stock markets recovery on government efforts.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD - USD/JPY – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD - AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- JPY Nomura PMI -Nov- (39.7), Tokyo CPI -YoY- (1.1), Tokyo CPI Ex-food and energy -YoY- (0.3%), Japan National CPI -YoY- (1.7%), Japan CPI Ex-food and energy (0.2%), Japan Jobless rate -Oct- (4.2%), Japan Household spending -YoY- (3.5%), Japan Retail trade -MoM- (0.9%) and Japan Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-6.4% - -2.5%).
2.JPY strengthens against most currencies today as European stocks rose, as investors speculated government efforts to shore up banks and the economy will support profits.
3.JPY rose against the euro yesterday despite US stock markets rallied on bets evidence of a deepening US recession will prompt investors to curb carry trades.
4.The yen fell against the dollar yesterday amid reports showed US durable goods orders, consumer spending and new home sales tumbled, as investors bought the dollar as haven from crippling global economy.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as recession concern grows.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
To monitor:
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany Unemployment change -Nov- (-10k), Euro-zone M3 -3M- (8.7%), Euro-zone Business climate indicator (-2.14), Euro-zone Consumer confidence -Nov- (-25), Euro-zone Economic confidence -Nov- (74.9), Euro-zone Industrial confidence -Nov- (-25) and Euro-zone Services confidence -Nov- (-12).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France PPI -YoY-MoM- (5.1% - -0.2%), Italy PPI -YoY-MoM- (5.7% - -1.0%), Euro-zone CPI Estimate -YoY- (2.7%) and Euro-zone Unemployment rate -Oct- (7.6%).
3.EUR is little change against the dollar today amid reports showed European confidence in the economic outlook fell to a 15-year low this month even after recent radical interest-rate cuts, while Germany unemployment declined in November.
4.EUR fell against the dollar and yen yesterday despite US stock markets rallied, as investors sold the euro and bought the dollar as haven amid reports showed US durable goods orders, consumer spending and home prices tumbled.
5.The euro remained weak yesterday amid reports showed Italy slipped into its 4th recession in seven years in the 3rd quarter and the inflation rate in Germany slowed more than forecast this month to 1.5%, paving the way for more rate cuts, while the European Union proposed $259Billion in stimulus measures to bolster the region economies
On the upside:
•Dollar retreats on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Stock markets might retreat after recent gains.
•ECB members comments/statements that reinforced speculations for further rate reduction.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today amid economic reports in the US showed a deepening recession that may cut fuel demand in the US and Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev said that they will coordinate with members of the OPEC including Venezuela to keep oil prices from being too low or speculatively high.
2.Crude oil rose yesterday amid investors exit short positions ahead of thanksgiving holiday and China cut interest rates to boost the country's slowing growth, while crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week.
3.Crude oil inventories increased by 7.3Million barrels last week, gasoline inventories rose by 1.9Million barrels and distillate inventories declined by 0.2Million barrels, the storage report also show that gasoline demand dropped 1.3% from last week.
4.Refineries operated at 100% of their maximum capacity, up 0.0% from the previous week, up 1.3% from the previous week. US crude oil imports averaged at 11.0Million barrels per day last week, up 1.1Million barrels per day from the previous week.
On the upside:
•Buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $53and high $53 (USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.30GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.30PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens on early trading session.
•US capital markets (Close)
•JPY slightly strengthens.
•EUR slightly rises on early trading session.
•Crude oil rises on early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets (Close)
•JPY slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets (Close)
•JPY slightly weakens on late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
Brief:
1.USD fell against most currencies today as stock markets in Europe and Asia rose, reduces appeal of the dollar as haven amid investors risk appetite grows, on speculation that world government efforts to shore up banks and the economy will support profits.
2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- US Durable goods orders -Oct- (-6.2%), US Durable Ex-transportation -Oct- (-4.4%), US Personal income -Oct- (0.3%), US Personal spending -Oct- (-1.0%), US Personal consumption deflator -YoY- (3.2%), US Core personal consumption expenditure -YoY-MoM- (2.1% - 0.0%), Initial jobless claims -Nov22- (529k), Chicago PMI -Nov- (33.8), University of Michigan consumer confidence index -Nov- (55.3) and US New home sales -MoM- (-5.3%).
3.USD gained versus the euro yesterday despite US stock markets rallied as declines in US consumer spending, durable goods orders and new home sales led investors to buy the greenback as haven.
4.The dollar remained strong yesterday as a report showed Americans cut spending by 1% in October, the biggest drop since the last recession in 2001, and a separate report showed orders for durable goods slumped twice as much as forecast as domestic and foreign demand dried up.
On the upside:
•Declining stocks markets and other central banks rate cut speculation.
•Shrinking economy in EU and Asia region.
On the downside:
•Stock markets recovery on government efforts.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Speculation on another stimulus plan.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD – NZD/USD - USD/JPY – USD/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD - AUD/USD – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.30GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- JPY Nomura PMI -Nov- (39.7), Tokyo CPI -YoY- (1.1), Tokyo CPI Ex-food and energy -YoY- (0.3%), Japan National CPI -YoY- (1.7%), Japan CPI Ex-food and energy (0.2%), Japan Jobless rate -Oct- (4.2%), Japan Household spending -YoY- (3.5%), Japan Retail trade -MoM- (0.9%) and Japan Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (-6.4% - -2.5%).
2.JPY strengthens against most currencies today as European stocks rose, as investors speculated government efforts to shore up banks and the economy will support profits.
3.JPY rose against the euro yesterday despite US stock markets rallied on bets evidence of a deepening US recession will prompt investors to curb carry trades.
4.The yen fell against the dollar yesterday amid reports showed US durable goods orders, consumer spending and new home sales tumbled, as investors bought the dollar as haven from crippling global economy.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•Declining stock markets on selling pressure as recession concern grows.
On the downside:
•2nd stimulus package speculations might spur buying interest in stocks.
To monitor:
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: USD/JPY – GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: USD/JPY - AUD/JPY –
-According to 12.30GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany Unemployment change -Nov- (-10k), Euro-zone M3 -3M- (8.7%), Euro-zone Business climate indicator (-2.14), Euro-zone Consumer confidence -Nov- (-25), Euro-zone Economic confidence -Nov- (74.9), Euro-zone Industrial confidence -Nov- (-25) and Euro-zone Services confidence -Nov- (-12).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France PPI -YoY-MoM- (5.1% - -0.2%), Italy PPI -YoY-MoM- (5.7% - -1.0%), Euro-zone CPI Estimate -YoY- (2.7%) and Euro-zone Unemployment rate -Oct- (7.6%).
3.EUR is little change against the dollar today amid reports showed European confidence in the economic outlook fell to a 15-year low this month even after recent radical interest-rate cuts, while Germany unemployment declined in November.
4.EUR fell against the dollar and yen yesterday despite US stock markets rallied, as investors sold the euro and bought the dollar as haven amid reports showed US durable goods orders, consumer spending and home prices tumbled.
5.The euro remained weak yesterday amid reports showed Italy slipped into its 4th recession in seven years in the 3rd quarter and the inflation rate in Germany slowed more than forecast this month to 1.5%, paving the way for more rate cuts, while the European Union proposed $259Billion in stimulus measures to bolster the region economies
On the upside:
•Dollar retreats on rising stocks.
On the downside:
•Easing inflation in the region.
•Stock markets might retreat after recent gains.
•ECB members comments/statements that reinforced speculations for further rate reduction.
To monitor:
•Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases.
•ECB's members' statements/comments.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD - EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/JPY – EUR/CAD -
-According to 12.30GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today amid economic reports in the US showed a deepening recession that may cut fuel demand in the US and Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev said that they will coordinate with members of the OPEC including Venezuela to keep oil prices from being too low or speculatively high.
2.Crude oil rose yesterday amid investors exit short positions ahead of thanksgiving holiday and China cut interest rates to boost the country's slowing growth, while crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week.
3.Crude oil inventories increased by 7.3Million barrels last week, gasoline inventories rose by 1.9Million barrels and distillate inventories declined by 0.2Million barrels, the storage report also show that gasoline demand dropped 1.3% from last week.
4.Refineries operated at 100% of their maximum capacity, up 0.0% from the previous week, up 1.3% from the previous week. US crude oil imports averaged at 11.0Million barrels per day last week, up 1.1Million barrels per day from the previous week.
On the upside:
•Buying interest after recent decline.
On the downside:
•Signs of lower fuel demand.
•Further evidence showing slower growth in the US and/or Europe.
To monitor:
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around mid $53and high $53 (USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.30GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.30PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens on early trading session.
•US capital markets (Close)
•JPY slightly strengthens.
•EUR slightly rises on early trading session.
•Crude oil rises on early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•US capital markets (Close)
•JPY slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens on mid trading session.
16PM – 20PM GMT:
•USD slightly rises by late trading session.
•US capital markets (Close)
•JPY slightly weakens on late trading session.
•EUR slightly weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
|
