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Market Snapshot 28.04.08
USD
Brief:
1.The dollar is little change against the euro amid a survey showed GFK AG index increased from 4.8 to 5.9 in April, a 7 months high as rising incomes encouraged spending.
2.USD rose against the euro last week on speculation the Fed may pause interest rate cut on rising inflation and recovering corporate revenues.
3.USD Is little change against the euro last Friday amid a survey by University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment fell more than economists forecast to the weakest level since 1982 to 62.6.
4.Economist said the US probably lost jobs for a fourth month as the collapse in construction and a slowdown in consumer spending almost stalled growth, before reports this week.
5.Economist predicts consumer spending in the first quarter probably rose at a 0.7% annual pace, the smallest gain since 1995.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY, CAD, EUR and CHF)
On the downside:
•The dollar might slide on disappointing earnings reported by major financial corporate.
To monitor:
•News/statements related to Major institution.
•US capital markets movement.
•Fed member’s comments/statements.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: – USD/CAD – USD/JPY – USD/CHF – GBP/USD – EUR/USD -
-According to 12.50GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Japan retailer sales rose 1.1% as households paid more for gasoline and food, leaving them less to spend on clothing and furniture amid consumer confidence is near a 5 years low.
2.JPY weakens against most currencies today as commodities and Asian stocks markets rose, led by financial and energy producers stocks.
3.Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan large retailers sales –Mar- (0.2%) and Japan retail trade –YoY-MoM- (1.1% - 0.5%).
4.Economist predicts the BOJ would hold its interest rate on hold at 0.50% at this week BOJ meeting as amid rising inflation and slowdown in exports.
On the upside:
•Commodities might further retreat on selling pressure, reducing the demand for carry trade.
•US capital markets might decline if major corporate earnings report proved to be a disappointment.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD, GBP, NZD and AUD)
•US stocks markets might rally on buying interest.
To monitor:
•US indexes movement.
•Major corporate earnings report, particularly financial sectors.
•News related to major institution.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY – CAD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY – USD/JPY –
-According to 12.50GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany GFK consumer confidence (5.9), Italy Business confidence (86.9). Unrelease Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (2.8% - 0.2%) and Germany CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (3.1% - 0.2%).
2.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France consumer confidence indicator –Apr- (37.0), Italy PPI –YoY-MoM- (5.8% - 0.5%) and Germany IFO business climate survey –By industry- (No forecast figures).
3.German consumer confidence unexpectedly increased to a 7 months high as rising incomes encouraged spending. Gfk AG’s index showed an increased to 5.9 from 4.8 in April.
4.EUR is little change against the dollar last Friday amid a survey showed US consumer sentiment felled to a 13 years low on slower economic growth and rising inflation.
5.French business confidence declined to 16 months low in April according to a report by Insee last week, as a record euro’s and rising energy costs damped the outlook for corporate profit.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY, CAD and CHF)
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD and AUD)
•Major European institution posting worse than expected earnings.
To monitor:
•Today's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone and US economic releases.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•ECB or other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD -
Long: EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD – EUR/CAD – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD
-According to 12.50GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil roes to another record today after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and gunmen attacked police guarding Nigeria’s largest oil and gas terminal.
2.BP closed the Forties Pipeline System, carrying 40% of the UK’s oil production, after a strike at the Grangemouth refinery cut power supplies, according to the news report.
3.Yesterday attacks in Nigeria delta leaves 5 police dead, raising the concern that further unrest will continue and oil output in the region will recover from 50% since April 25th.
On the upside:
•Further unrest in Nigeria delta disrupting supplies.
•Falling stock markets might prompt buying interest in commodities as investors seeks alternative for higher returns on investment.
On the downside:
•The dollar strengthens against the euro.
•Capital markets rally.
To monitor:
•USD movement.
•US capital markets movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around low $119 and mid $119 (USD movement and US indexes movement.)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.50GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD recovers on early trading session.
•US capital market rise further on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens by mid trading session.
•US capital remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen following US capital markets retreat.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil weakens by mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD strengthens further by late trading session.
•US capitals markets strengthen by late trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls on late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Brief:
1.The dollar is little change against the euro amid a survey showed GFK AG index increased from 4.8 to 5.9 in April, a 7 months high as rising incomes encouraged spending.
2.USD rose against the euro last week on speculation the Fed may pause interest rate cut on rising inflation and recovering corporate revenues.
3.USD Is little change against the euro last Friday amid a survey by University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment fell more than economists forecast to the weakest level since 1982 to 62.6.
4.Economist said the US probably lost jobs for a fourth month as the collapse in construction and a slowdown in consumer spending almost stalled growth, before reports this week.
5.Economist predicts consumer spending in the first quarter probably rose at a 0.7% annual pace, the smallest gain since 1995.
On the upside:
•Cross currencies weakness. (JPY, CAD, EUR and CHF)
On the downside:
•The dollar might slide on disappointing earnings reported by major financial corporate.
To monitor:
•News/statements related to Major institution.
•US capital markets movement.
•Fed member’s comments/statements.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF - USD/CAD
Possible main pairs are: – USD/CAD – USD/JPY – USD/CHF – GBP/USD – EUR/USD -
-According to 12.50GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Japan retailer sales rose 1.1% as households paid more for gasoline and food, leaving them less to spend on clothing and furniture amid consumer confidence is near a 5 years low.
2.JPY weakens against most currencies today as commodities and Asian stocks markets rose, led by financial and energy producers stocks.
3.Yesterday’s Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan large retailers sales –Mar- (0.2%) and Japan retail trade –YoY-MoM- (1.1% - 0.5%).
4.Economist predicts the BOJ would hold its interest rate on hold at 0.50% at this week BOJ meeting as amid rising inflation and slowdown in exports.
On the upside:
•Commodities might further retreat on selling pressure, reducing the demand for carry trade.
•US capital markets might decline if major corporate earnings report proved to be a disappointment.
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD, GBP, NZD and AUD)
•US stocks markets might rally on buying interest.
To monitor:
•US indexes movement.
•Major corporate earnings report, particularly financial sectors.
•News related to major institution.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY– NZD/JPY– EUR/JPY – CAD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY – NZD/JPY – USD/JPY –
-According to 12.50GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today’s Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- Germany GFK consumer confidence (5.9), Italy Business confidence (86.9). Unrelease Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (2.8% - 0.2%) and Germany CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (3.1% - 0.2%).
2.Tomorrow’s Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France consumer confidence indicator –Apr- (37.0), Italy PPI –YoY-MoM- (5.8% - 0.5%) and Germany IFO business climate survey –By industry- (No forecast figures).
3.German consumer confidence unexpectedly increased to a 7 months high as rising incomes encouraged spending. Gfk AG’s index showed an increased to 5.9 from 4.8 in April.
4.EUR is little change against the dollar last Friday amid a survey showed US consumer sentiment felled to a 13 years low on slower economic growth and rising inflation.
5.French business confidence declined to 16 months low in April according to a report by Insee last week, as a record euro’s and rising energy costs damped the outlook for corporate profit.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY, CAD and CHF)
On the downside:
•Cross currency strength. (USD and AUD)
•Major European institution posting worse than expected earnings.
To monitor:
•Today's Euro-zone economic releases.
•Tomorrow’s Euro-zone and US economic releases.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•ECB or other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/NZD – EUR/AUD -
Long: EUR/AUD - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/JPY – EUR/AUD – EUR/CAD – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD
-According to 12.50GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil roes to another record today after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and gunmen attacked police guarding Nigeria’s largest oil and gas terminal.
2.BP closed the Forties Pipeline System, carrying 40% of the UK’s oil production, after a strike at the Grangemouth refinery cut power supplies, according to the news report.
3.Yesterday attacks in Nigeria delta leaves 5 police dead, raising the concern that further unrest will continue and oil output in the region will recover from 50% since April 25th.
On the upside:
•Further unrest in Nigeria delta disrupting supplies.
•Falling stock markets might prompt buying interest in commodities as investors seeks alternative for higher returns on investment.
On the downside:
•The dollar strengthens against the euro.
•Capital markets rally.
To monitor:
•USD movement.
•US capital markets movement.
•Forecast on near-term US economic releases and economic growth.
•Fed or its member’s statements/comments.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around low $119 and mid $119 (USD movement and US indexes movement.)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.50GM price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD recovers on early trading session.
•US capital market rise further on early trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens on early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly rises on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly strengthens by mid trading session.
•US capital remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthen following US capital markets retreat.
•EUR remains or slightly weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil weakens by mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD strengthens further by late trading session.
•US capitals markets strengthen by late trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls on late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
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