Market Snapshot 29.07.08
USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US S&P/CaseShiller Composite 20 -YoY- (-16.0%) and US Consumer confidence -July- (50).
2.USD against the euro today as US stock futures increased and crude oil prices dropped, reducing concern the economy may fall into a recession.
3.USD fell against the euro yesterday as concern US financial company losses will widen after IMF said there is no end in sight to the housing slump and warned that worsening credit conditions may prolong the economic slowdown led traders to reduce bets that the Fed will increase borrowing costs this year.
4.The euro remains strong against the dollar yesterday amid reports showed consumer confidence in Germany dropped to the lowest in more than 5 years.
5.An administration official yesterday said the US budget deficit will widen to a record of about $490 billion next year, leaving a deep budget hole that will constrain the next president's tax and spending plans.
6.Economists said before a report this week that the US lost jobs in July for the 7 straight month, a sign the economy may weaken after tax rebates boosted growth in the 2nd quarter.
On the upside:
•Further recovery on euro weakness.
•Cross currency weakness. (EUR and JPY)
On the downside:
•Possible events that might led to speculation that US economic slowdown will worsen.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed members outlook and statements/comments.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Major financial companies' earnings report.
•US indexes movement.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: AUD/USD - NZD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD –
Long: USD/JPY - USD/CHF –
Possible main pairs are: – AUD/USD - GBP/USD – EUR/USD – USD/JPY – NZD/USD -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Industrial production -YoY-MoM- (0.6% - -1.6%).
2.Yesterday's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Jobless rate -June- (4.1%), Japan Households spending -YoY- (-1.8%), Japan Large retailers' sales -June- (-3.9%) and Japan Retail trade -YoY- (0.3%).
3.JPY weakens against most currencies today as US index futures advanced as oil prices declined and Amgen Inc reported earnings that beat analysts' estimates.
4.JPY strengthens today as stock markets in Asia and Europe fell on speculation US economic slowdown will worsen and government reports showed Japan household spending fell less than expected in June amid a separate report shows Japan retail trade unexpectedly rose in the same month.
5.JPY strengthens against most currencies yesterday as US stock markets fell after the IMF said there is no end in sight to the housing slump and warned that worsening credit conditions may prolong the economic slowdown.
On the upside:
•Negative news related to major corporate.
•European markets retreat on weaker growth outlook..
On the downside:
•US stocks rallies on positive news.
•Cross currency strength. (USD and GBP)
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Today's Japan economic releases.
•Fed members' comments/statements.
•News related to major institution.
•Major corporate fiscal reports.
•Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Long: USD/JPY - GBP/JPY – AUD/JPY - EUR/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: –GBP/JPY - USD/JPY – AUD/JPY – EUR/JPY -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Consumer confidence indicator -July- (-48), France Producer price -YoY-MoM- (7.3% - 0.7%), France Housing starts -June- (-28.2%). Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany CPI -YoY-MoM- (3.2% - 0.5%), Germany CPI EU-Harmonized -YoY-MoM- (3.4% - 0.5%) and Germany IFO Business climate survey by industry -July- (No forecast figures).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Germany Retail sales -YoY-MoM- (-0.7% - -0.5%), Italy PPI -MoM- (0.9%), Euro-zone Business climate indicator -July- (-0.02), Euro-zone Consumer confidence -July- (-18), Euro-zone Economic confidence -July- (93), Euro-zone Industrial confidence (-7) and Euro-zone Services confidence -July- (8).
3.EUR weakens today after a report shows France consumer confidence fell to -48, a record low in July as inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 12 years, eroding households' purchasing power.
4.EUR strengthens yesterday as the dollar weakens on concern US credit losses will widen after IMF warned that worsening credit conditions may prolong US economic slowdown.
5.EUR strengthened against the dollar yesterday amid a report showed consumer confidence in Germany fell to a 5 years low as soaring energy prices sapped purchasing power and the economic outlook deteriorated.
On the upside:
•Cross currency weakness. (JPY).
•ECB members' comments signaling a possible rate raise this year even as Euro-zone economy slows.
On the downside:
•Weaker outlook on Euro-zone economic growth.
•Cross currency strength. (GBP and USD)
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Major corporate fiscal report.
•News related to major corporate.
•Fed members statement/comments.
•ECB members' statements/comments.
•US stock indexes movement.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: EUR/USD – EUR/AUD – EUR/GBP -
Long: - EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF – EUR/CAD -
Possible main pairs are: – EUR/USD – EUR/GBP – EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF -
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar strengthens and after OPEC President Chakib Khelil said crude oil prices are abnormal and the producer group shouldn't cut output as it needs to ensure adequate supply.
2.Crude oil rose yesterday, rebounded from earlier losses as weakening dollar increases the appeal of commodities as a hedge and news reported at least 49 people were killed and about 250 injured in four suicide attacks across Iraq that targeted a Shiite Muslim religious festival in Baghdad heightens concerns that unrest in the region may disrupt oil supplies.
3.Crude oil remains strong yesterday concerns militants that attacked Royal Dutch Shell Plc pipeline in Nigeria may attack more pipelines in the region.
On the upside:
•Atlantic ocean hurricanes activities.
•Further attacks by militants on Nigeria pipelines.
On the downside:
•Stronger dollar.
•Further selling pressure amid weaker consumption on high fuel price.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Speculation on tomorrow's storage report.
•News related to Nigeria/Brazil oilfields and/or workers strike. (Sensitive)
•US indexes movement.
•USD movement.
•Atlantic ocean hurricane activities and weather report. (Sensitive)
•Geopolitical risk.
•Fed members statements/comments.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion:
“Short” Crude oil around high $123 and low $124 (Atlantic Hurricane activities, USD movement and US indexes movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
-According to 12.20GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (12.20PM) – 16PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
•US capital market slightly weakens on early trading session.
•JPY slightly recovers following US indexes movement.
•EUR remains or slightly recovers on early trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly weakens on early trading session.
16PM – 18PM GMT:
•USD strengthens on mid trading session.
•US capital markets remains or slightly rises on mid trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR weakens on mid trading session.
•Crude oil remains or slightly rise by mid trading session.
18PM – 22PM GMT:
•USD remains or slightly weakens by late trading session.
•US capital rises by late trading session.
•JPY weakens following US capital markets movement.
•EUR remains or slightly strengthens by late trading session.
•Crude oil falls by late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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