The monthly Wave Analysis for September, 2010 + Facultative pairs.

Currency pair USD/CHF



The price comes nearer to critical level of the scenario which was considered throughout enough long time. And though it is not broken yet, in the circumstances, there is a sense to consider pair of the alternatives considering this circumstance.
The idea of one of them is based that the correctional wave [b] a global wave an of (b) still continues the development. Unfortunately, at present, there is no possibility to make the assumption of the future model. As is known waves «b» can take the form of any correctional model. By that not мене it is not excluded that the wave [b] of a takes the form of a Flat, in which frameworks the impulse () of [b] at present is formed. Therefore, if the assumption is true, in среднесрочно, it is possible to expect the further falling of US dollar. The analysis of constructions at smaller level will help to define the future model more precisely. Also it will accordingly be defined with parametres of trading plans.
In too time, possibility of is not excluded that the wave an of (b) is already generated also the price has already started construction of a correctional wave b of (b) - look alternative. In this case it is possible to expect more scale falling of US dollar but while about it to speak prematurely.

Currency pair EUR/USD



On analogies to the Swiss, the scenario of development of euro also it is reconsidered. Presumably, formation of a correctional wave [b] a global wave and of (b) proceeds. Unfortunately, at present, there is no possibility to be defined with the future model. Probably, it takes the form of a Flat correction, in which frameworks the price already forms an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle () of [b]. If the assumption is true, in intermediate term prospect, it is logical to expect the further falling of US dollar.
In too time, possibility of is not excluded that the wave an of (b) is already generated also the price has already started and to construction of a correctional wave b of (b) - look alternative. In this case it is possible to expect more scale falling of US dollar but while this scenario costs on the second plan.

Currency pair GBP/USD



Unlike European pairs, the cable has not changed expectations. As a whole, the pair is in forecast frameworks. Presumably, development of a correctional wave [X] of y proceeds. Probably, it will become a Double Three in which frameworks the wave X of (Y) of [X], at present, is formed. If the assumption is true, after its termination it is logical to expect continuation of an ascending trend in intermediate term prospect. At the same time, while as it is possible, that the wave [X] of y becomes a Flat and at present, the correctional wave 2 impulses () of [X] is formed - look alternative. As a matter of fact it does not influence expectations, but speaks about more powerful potential of growth of English currency.

Currency pair USD/JPY



Assumed in the beginning of August the wave X of (Y) left a range of comprehensible values, this circumstance allows will return to earlier considered scenario - S1 a аlternate which, at present, looks quite optimum. Within the limits of this scenario the impulse [c] of 5 Diagonal Triangles () of [3], presumably, comes to the end. Therefore, if the assumption is true, after its end it is possible to count on pair growth in Corrective Style as a wave [4] of v. At the same time it is not excluded, that all Diagonal Triangle v of (a) comes to the end. Depth of expected correction can be the help in the given question.

Facultative pairs, the monthly Wave Analysis for September, 2010.



EUR JPY



While the pair is in frameworks of the forecast made in the beginning of August. Presumably, the impulse [v] of 5 is formed. The possible variant of its counting is presented in drawing.
If the assumption is true, in September, it is possible to expect continuation of decrease in pair as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle v of (iii).

EUR GBP



Assumptions made in the beginning of August while prove to be true. The wave [ii] of 1 which has taken the form of a deep Double Zigzag is presumably generated. If the assumption is true, in September it is possible to count on growth of pair as impulse or wedge construction [iii] of 1. At the same time, while the price has not overcome acknowledgement level, there is a probability of realisation of the alternative scenario.

EUR CHF



While the price moves according to the forecast. The wave 5 of (C) of [Y] is formed. The possible variant of a counting of its counting is shown in drawing. If the assumption is true, in September it is possible to count on continuation of a descending trend.

GBP JPY



As a whole expectations have not changed, while the pair to be frameworks of the basic scenario. The impulse [v] of C of (B) in which frameworks the impulse (v) of [v] is formed presumably develops. If the assumption is true, in September it is possible to expect continuation of a descending trend as the impulse or Diagonal Triangle termination (v) of [v] of C. During too time while the price has not overcome a boundary 126,50 there is a probability of realisation of the alternative scenario.

USD CAD



The Canadian has completely justified expectations of August. It is not excluded, that the prospective wave [z] of B is finished. If it so it is possible to expect the beginning of new intermediate term falling of US dollar as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle With of (B). At the same time, this assumption still demands the acknowledgement.

AUD USD



While the price moves in an expected direction. Presumably, formation of a wave (2) of [C] has ended and formation of an impulse (3) of [C] has already begun. Probably, at present the correctional wave 2 of (3) of [C] is formed. If the assumption is true, in September it is possible to expect continuation of the begun descending trend.



Igor Pak.
Analyst of company Admiral Markets.
igor.pak@forextrade.ee

At any use of the analytical material taken from a site of company Admiral Markets, and the secondary publication on any other resources, the rights to intellectual property for a dealing centre «Admiral Markets», the reference to a company site is obligatory.